MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Ok cool tks for the Web reference. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 JoMo, what hour does the GEM have the snow? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk It was on yesterday's 12z run. The models are going to change a lot due to the -SOI burst, and the confusing split flow, cutoff, and energy flying about. 06z GFS had a nice long duration snow event but I doubt it will be there on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfingguy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Jomo, ive heard the trop vortex has split, but strat part hasnt. Cold dont seem to be locking in. What we need to take place for us to have sustained cold instead of transient shots? Something seems to be missing unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Jomo, ive heard the trop vortex has split, but strat part hasnt. Cold dont seem to be locking in. What we need to take place for us to have sustained cold instead of transient shots? Something seems to be missing unfortunately Cold doesn't usually lock in during strong El Nino years due to the nature of the forcing leading to the strong Aleutian low and limited amounts of time with a -EPO to deliver cold air. A -AO of course would help lead to more amplification of the northern jet and would deliver colder air farther south but in general the colder air across the southern US during El Nino's is due to an active STJ, with more clouds/rain/snow depending on storm strength and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Still a chaotic mess for the models to figure out on the 12z GFS. System across Wisconsin, System across Texas. System hitting the west coast. System over BC, System on the west Hudson Bay.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfingguy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Jomo, why hasnt the cpc updated the mjo charts you think? I dont see anything new in a few days anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Jomo, why hasnt the cpc updated the mjo charts you think? I dont see anything new in a few days anywhere Not sure, New Years issues? Probably get fixed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Unless the models are missing something by day 15, going snowless through midwinter is becoming a very good possibility for me and folks to my immediate east and northeast. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The models are doing a terrible job right now, every met is saying that and has been saying that. Even when models are doing well, we don't trust them on day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 The models are doing a terrible job right now, every met is saying that and has been saying that. Even when models are doing well, we don't trust them on day 15. I know that. Just giving a rundown of what they are showing right now. If one isn't showing 3+ inches of snow in the next 48 hours, I'm not counting on it snowing. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I know that. Just giving a rundown of what they are showing right now. If one isn't showing 3+ inches of snow in the next 48 hours, I'm not counting on it snowing. Lol Yes really..I've got much more sleep this year...in part because I'm not having to go crazy model watching!. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I know that. Just giving a rundown of what they are showing right now. If one isn't showing 3+ inches of snow in the next 48 hours, I'm not counting on it snowing. Lol I think you scared the GFS. Although it's probably just screwing with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Haha nice. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This is the same wave (only a day earlier) that the GFS had back on 12/31 showing snow for this region. So it's back north again and not as weak running along the gulf coast. This is also what Cosgrove mentioned as the forerunner system to deliver cold air after its departure next weekend. From Cosgrove newsletter 1/2/16: Here is what I see happening. The first storm in the series moves from Texas into the Carolinas and then exist near Nantucket MA during a January 10-13 time frame. That feature, working in concert with a vast cA anticyclone, brings the coldest air all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and east of the Continental Divide. A second impulse takes shape in Mexico soon after (January 16-20 perhaps), and moves along the rim of the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Kind of a mix down south on the 12z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Quite a bit further north, stronger than GFS. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I think you scared the GFS. Although it's probably just screwing with you. Ahahah. Too funny GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Lol. I knew that was coming. Haha. Either way, one thing is for sure, going to be ccccoooollldddd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Any news from the 12z Euro yet today? WRT this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Any news from the 12z Euro yet today? WRT this weekend? Boring. Pretty much the entire run. Dry and cold most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Hmm. So GFS and GEM have something but Euro nothing. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Well, the Euro missed pretty badly last time. Can it go 0 for 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 A lot of slop in the forecast for tuesday night onwards. Looks like small percentages though until maybe friday or so something a little bigger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What did the EURO miss? I thought it has been the most accurate model... by far? Maybe it will come around the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 What did the EURO miss? I thought it has been the most accurate model... by far? Maybe it will come around the GFS solution. Mostly track and precip amounts. Wasn't very consistent at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 0Z GFS went way back north with the winter weather for this weekend. Until we get our system on-shore I expect models to continue flip-floppin around quite a bit. Regardless its going to get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The gfs seems to be coming in incredibly slowly on tropical tidbits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 We go from warm and wet SW flow to cold and dry NW flow. Just can't win this winter so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 4 of the top 10 CPC analogs centered on day 10 today are 1983 and 1998. Go figure. Super Nino years just like this one with minimal snowfall for this region. Gonna be a long boring ride to Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I've got one last play...... "Winter Cancel" (let's see if reverse psychology works) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.