JerseyWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Radar is impressive right now to the south. It will be interesting to see if I flip to snow in the wee hours of the morning. Temp has actually gone up a degree recently. sitting at 38F Valley locations are cooler right now. The Radar definitely looks nice. 36 here, so I guess there's a chance. Impressive storm, even if it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sitting at 32 degrees here to the west. Seems colder at least at surface than expected. 18z Nam wants to bring a few hrs of snow it looks here.. I'm at 1,230 feet and thinking I may have a shot at something. Certaintly the Pocono Plateau just to my west at 2k, has the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sitting at 32 degrees here to the west. Seems colder at least at surface than expected. 18z Nam wants to bring a few hrs of snow it looks here.. I'm at 1,230 feet and thinking I may have a shot at something. Certaintly the Pocono Plateau just to my west at 2k, has the best shot. You are def in a good spot for this one. It's been awhile since elevation mattered lol. Someone is gonna wake up surprised that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 going off the 0Z nam..we get snow. Final call - 3 inches at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 going off the 0Z nam..we get snow. Final call - 3 inches at my house. 0 z nam was cold imop for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 0z NAM model soundings isothermal from KSWF on north at 12z. Probably flips to snow earlier than that. This is all evap cooling at the currently still dry mid levels followed by dynaminc cooling on down, but I think you pull it off. SE Catskills above 3k feet slight shot at warning criteria, but probably more like 3 - 4". At least that is my guess using the NAM and 0z soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 0z NAM model soundings isothermal from KSWF on north at 12z. Probably flips to snow earlier than that. This is all evap cooling at the currently still dry mid levels followed by dynaminc cooling on down, but I think you pull it off. SE Catskills above 3k feet slight shot at warning criteria, but probably more like 3 - 4". At least that is my guess using the NAM and 0z soundings. did not check soundings. What is your gut check for area and elevation. Run looked coldest yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 did not check soundings. What is your gut check for area and elevation. Run looked coldest yet Best bets are above 2k feet (and especially above 3k feet i.e, Catskills, above 925mb level), but with that isothermal profile it could snow down to the valley floors if it comes down hard enough around dawn Need to be well away from the coast though because the southeast and then easterly flow is going to keep a steady import of way too much warm air to have a chance of overcoming it with dynamic processes. It'll probably be about 40 or low 40s here early morning with heavy rain, but for LI it won't even be remotely close. Butler may be a little too far SE for this one. LI is a lot too far SE. EDIT: Oops, not sure why I had Butler on the brain. Highland Lakes at your elevation should see some snow mix and maybe a wet accumulation. Depends on how hard it comes down. Based on the NAM I'd still prefer to be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 If we can pull off advisory level snows I'll take it and run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Best bets are above 2k feet (and especially above 3k feet i.e, Catskills, above 925mb level), but with that isothermal profile it could snow down to the valley floors if it comes down hard enough around dawn Need to be well away from the coast though because the southeast and then easterly flow is going to keep a steady import of way too much warm air to have a chance of overcoming it with dynamic processes. It'll probably be about 40 or low 40s here early morning with heavy rain, but for LI it won't even be remotely close. Butler may be a little too far SE for this one. LI is a lot too far SE. you did not answer my question. lol. no worries. I run 6-7 degree cooler than butler typically. 20 miles away. this storm will be interesting.... 0z nam blew me away. I think I have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I agree, I think no snow here. 1,500' is where I'd want to be, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 0z NAM keeps me around 33-34 w/ 850s below 0. Should be interesting to see what the RGEM shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 you did not answer my question. lol. no worries. I run 6-7 degree cooler than butler typically. 20 miles away. this storm will be interesting.... 0z nam blew me away. I think I have a chance Yup sorry about that. I noticed it as soon as I posted and edited the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 0z NAM keeps me around 33-34 w/ 850s below 0. Should be interesting to see what the RGEM shows This is what keeps us on the chain. I enjoy these storms. Have a cigar or wonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 you did not answer my question. lol. no worries. I run 6-7 degree cooler than butler typically. 20 miles away. this storm will be interesting.... 0z nam blew me away. I think I have a chance lol ok do u live in canada or 5000 ft up. im 36 so u should be 29-30 according to your temp difference . u are not even 6-7 degrees colder than nyc average wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 lol ok do u live in canada or 5000 ft up. im 36 so u should be 29-30 according to your temp difference . u are not even 6-7 degrees colder than nyc average wise you are knit picking. LOL. Can't use tonight as an example. If you want to trade weather data, let's do it. I see it all the time. Don't toss rain on my 0z run. Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 lol ok do u live in canada or 5000 ft up. im 36 so u should be 29-30 according to your temp difference . u are not even 6-7 degrees colder than nyc average wise 1000 feet higher would be worth about 3 degrees in a saturated environment. Might be able to subtract another degree or two for distance from the coast in this instance but not always, Temperature here is 44 and going nowhere or even slightly rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 you are knit picking. LOL. Can't use tonight as an example. If you want to trade weather data, let's do it. I see it all the time. Don't toss rain on my 0z run. Matt Maybe 3 -4 under ideal situations Soundings for Sussex . (Yes lower than u but still liquid )12z tomorrow on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 1000 feet higher would be worth about 3 degrees in a saturated environment. Might be able to subtract another degree or two for distance from the coast in this instance but not always, Temperature here is 44 and going nowhere or even slightly rising. And elevation of my town ranges from 350-750 and I'm about 25-30 miles north west from NYC go. Yes he averages more snow than me with 1400 ft elevator but the 6-7 degrees colder on avg is laughable lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Maybe 3 -4 under ideal situations Soundings for Sussex . (Yes lower than u but still liquid )12z tomorrow on nam Alright. I get it. rain. I am hoping that something occurs in the wee hours of the morning and I see snow. I guess the NAM....got me excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 And elevation of my town ranges from 350-750 and I'm about 25-30 miles north west from NYC go. Yes he averages more snow than me with 1400 ft elevator but the 6-7 degrees colder on avg is laughable lol Dude. let's exchange data. Plenty of time I am 6-7 degrees cooler. I accept the challenge. Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Alright. I get it. rain. I am hoping that something occurs in the wee hours of the morning and I see snow. I guess the NAM....got me excited. No doubt u and high point area have the best chance for snow . Hope u get it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 No doubt u and high point area have the best chance for snow . Hope u get it . you seem bitter tonight bro. It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Dude. let's exchange data. Plenty of time I am 6-7 degrees cooler. I accept the challenge. Matt Do u have a weather station on line that's calibrated ? Mine is so u can check . Never said u were no ever 6-7 degrees colder but on average no way . And my sensor is in full sun more than the required anount of hrs for nws standard . Have nick set u up one . He will put it were its needed to be set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 you seem bitter tonight bro. It's all good. Lol not at all. It's all good we are a civil group here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Headed up to Marist College tomorrow morning with my older son for a prospect baseball camp he was invited to. Have to be there by 8:30am so will be hitting the road bright and early tomorrow from Monmouth County, NJ to get up there in time. Was originally thinking we would get lucky with the warmer temps but not so much anymore? Your thoughts up that way? Also, any good places to eat around that area afterwards? Thanks guys!I'm not super familiar with that neck of the woods but I know that the Hyde Park Brewery isn't too far north of there. It's a family restaurant along with the brewery. I only ate there once but I enjoyed it and plan to go back again. Oh, and I enjoyed the beer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Do u have a weather station on line that's calibrated ? Mine is so u can check . Never said u were no ever 6-7 degrees colder but on average no way . And my sensor is in full sun more than the required anount of hrs for nws standard . Have nick set u up one . He will put it were its needed to be set up Yea. Nick and I have been exchanging text on the regular. He invited himself to my house lol. Nick knows where I live. Still not comfortable having him over yet. LOL In due time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yea. Nick and I have been exchanging text on the regular. He invited himself to my house lol. Nick knows where I live. Still not comfortable having him over yet. LOL In due time hes harmless and a good guy. hes a friend of mine. he use to run a great site called Sussex county weather. had numerous stations linked up to each other. just couldn't keep up with the expenses to upkeep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 hes harmless and a good guy. hes a friend of mine. he use to run a great site called Sussex county weather. had numerous stations linked up to each other. just couldn't keep up with the expenses to upkeep I respect Nick. I will let him to the mountain top hamlet in due time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 And elevation of my town ranges from 350-750 and I'm about 25-30 miles north west from NYC go. Yes he averages more snow than me with 1400 ft elevator but the 6-7 degrees colder on avg is laughable lol Yeah that's about the range of elevation. I'd say on a good radiational night we could be 10° colder than NYC, but as for our differences from him, maybe 3-4 degrees is more like it. Exceptions are of course understood. Highland lakes is only about 17 minutes from here, I used to go to a range up there and that's how long it took. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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