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snowman19

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

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Meh, well we're both seeing the same thing... no sense debating what to call it. It is what it is.

Fair enough . Look if I really knew , do you think I would be here ?

I would be trading weather derivatives from Tahiti .

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Fair enough . Look if I really knew , do you think I would be here ?

I would be trading weather derivatives from Tahiti .

:lol:

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_09_2015/post-3027-0-28298300-1443541819.png

There's been approximately 30 degree shift east in the warmest anomalies in the past two months.

Coming back to this... I did some number crunching for 'fun'.

 

The far westward extent of the >2.5 contour has shifted east about 25 degrees (145W minus 120W), the far eastward extent of that contour has shifted east by about 20 degrees (120W minus 100W)

 

A distance of 25 degrees longitude at the equator is 2778 km (1726 miles).
A distance of 20 degrees longitude is 2222 km (1380 miles).
 
From eyeballing it, the apparent shift started in late July. It's late September right now... so that's about 60 days. 
 
Therefore, 1726 miles over 60 days is 28.767 miles/day or about 1.19 MPH.
A 1380 mile shift over 60 days is 23 miles/day or about 0.958 MPH.

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This has been a great basin wide event. I think the guidance did well in the central basin as 3 and 3.4 behaved well but the guidance did poorly on the edges 1.2 (backing it off too soon ) and 4 ( over warming it ).

The way I see it 1.2 continues to tick up R 3 and 3.4 remain consistently and broadly AN . R 4 is close to a record for around the Oct 1 time frame

What's not to like.

1.2 , 3 and 3.4 still have some more upside , I will assume this goes through October.

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This has been a great basin wide event. I think the guidance did well in the central basin as 3 and 3.4 behaved well but the guidance did poorly on the edges 1.2 (backing it off too soon ) and 4 ( over warming it ).

The way I see it 1.2 continues to tick up R 3 and 3.4 remain consistently and broadly AN . R 4 is close to a record for around the Oct 1 time frame

What's not to like.

1.2 , 3 and 3.4 still have some more upside , I will assume this goes through October.

What's not to like about a historically strong ENSO event? I'm excited for the storm tracking this winter as long as it doesn't get as cold as January 2014 or February 2015. I know the best shot for this would be in February 2016... so I'm kinda nervous about that.

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What's not to like about a historically strong ENSO event? I'm excited for the storm tracking this winter as long as it doesn't get as cold as January 2014 or February 2015. I know the best shot for this would be in February 2016... so I'm kinda nervous about that.

I think the second half beats the first half. I don't see this as an overpoweringly cold winter , but wet and just "cold enough "

09/10 worked for me . We snowed a lot in the upper 20s and most loved that winter . Compare that to the last 2 winters where we snowed many times with temps in the low teens .

All great winters , but I will take what I can get with such a strong ENSO event

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Dr. Cohen as of yesterday:

 

The AO, which has remained almost consistently in negative territory since late June, though more recently has trended closer to neutral after near record low AO values for July and August. The AO is predicted to first trend positive peaking over the weekend before trending negative once more.  However the AO is predicted to remain negative all of next week and most of the following week.  Does the strong strongly negative AO values, especially in July and August portend anything about the upcoming winter AO?  In an effort to quantify how much predictive skill is inherent in the summer AO for the upcoming winter AO the time-series for the July and August AO with the following winter AO is plotted (December-February; Figure 1).  Also included is the AO value for this past July and August, which was the second lowest observed since 1950.  The correlation between the two time series is 0.30, a statistically significant value but the explained variance is less than 10%.  The low mean AO value of this past summer negatively biases the upcoming winter AO and if an overall mean negative AO persists for much of the fall, this will likely increase the odds of a negative winter AO.

 

Figure1.png

Figure 1. The time series of the July-August AO (blue curve) and the following winter (December-January-February) AO (red curve) since 1950.  Also shown is the July-August 2015 AO (blue dot). The correlation value between the two time-series is 0.30.

 

In the short term a below normal geopotential heights will dominate the central Arctic basin while the mid-latitudes are dominated by above normal geopotential heights.  The main area of positive geopotential heights stretches across the North Atlantic sector from the Northeastern United States to northwestern Russia.  This has resulted in warm temperatures for the Eastern United States and Northern Europe.  However across Central and Southern Europe temperatures are cool relative to normal resulting from relatively low geopotential heights in the Mediterranean region and easterly flow aloft.  With the exception of Alaska, warm temperatures dominate western North America as ridging continues to dominate the region.

Longer term however, a piece of the strong mid-tropospheric ridging centered over Northern Europe will break off and spin its way into the central Arctic basin.  As the area of above normal geopotential heights approaches the North Pole it is predicted to also become more expansive in extent until above normal geopotential heights dominate the entire Arctic basin next week.  Meanwhile the low geopotential height center near the North Pole will split into two pieces with one piece diving down into Western Siberia and the other into Eastern Canada.  This reconfiguration of the geopotential heights is not only predicted to force the AO back into negative territory but to also bring a cool down in temperatures first to northern Asia and then eastern Canada.  This will force the AO back into negative territory.   Besides low geopotential heights across much of Northern Asia and Eastern Canada, lower geopotential heights will become more likely in regions that are favored during negative AO regimes - Europe, the Aleutians and the Eastern United States. Lower geopotential heights will result in colder temperatures for the Eastern United States and Europe.  With troughing favored in Central Siberia above normal geopotential heights and above normal temperatures are predicted downstream for East Asia.

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Longer term however, a piece of the strong mid-tropospheric ridging centered over Northern Europe will break off and spin its way into the central Arctic basin.  As the area of above normal geopotential heights approaches the North Pole it is predicted to also become more expansive in extent until above normal geopotential heights dominate the entire Arctic basin next week .Meanwhile the low geopotential height center near the North Pole will split into two pieces with one piece diving down into Western Siberia and the other into Eastern Canada.  This reconfiguration of the geopotential heights is not only predicted to force the AO back into negative territory but to also bring a cool down in temperatures first to northern Asia and then eastern Canada.  This will force the AO back into negative territory.   Besides low geopotential heights across much of Northern Asia and Eastern Canada, lower geopotential heights will become more likely in regions that are favored during negative AO regimes - Europe, the Aleutians and the Eastern United States. Lower geopotential heights will result in colder temperatures for the Eastern United States and Europe.  With troughing favored in Central Siberia above normal geopotential heights and above normal temperatures are predicted downstream for East Asia.

 

 

I love when Judah talks dirty . 

 

Thankfully the hurricane will be a miss for many reason , one of which is we can back in here and see how this shakes out . 

 

It does look the entire basin keeps going , not only expanding west  but clearly a pop in the 1.2 region as well .

 

 

 

ssttlon5_c.gif

sstaanim.gif

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Just unreal.[br][br][br][br]hyI41KN.jpg[br][br]The 5 day running mean now shows ssta of 3C+ over a huge area of the equatorial epac.[br][br]And the massive Westerly wind burst hasn't really even begun.[br][br]

JEv3VAf.jpg

Enso 1-2 is going to see huge jump over the next week.

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Just unreal.[br][br][br][br]hyI41KN.jpg[br][br]The 5 day running mean now shows ssta of 3C+ over a huge area of the equatorial epac.[br][br]And the massive Westerly wind burst hasn't really even begun.[br][br]JEv3VAf.jpg

Enso 1-2 is going to see huge jump over the next week.

Yes 1.2 will pop (models since July missed it ) . I am just loving how from 80 to 180 we boil.

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Yes 1.2 will pop (models since July missed it ) . I am just loving how from 80 to 180 we boil.

PB, I'm not trying to piss you off or troll anything, just agreeing with you, region 1+2 is going to do more than pop based on what I'm seeing, like over +4.0C warmup, and region 3 is going well over +3.0C too, and I think we are going to steamroll 1997 in region 3.4 trimonthly as well to be honest

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PB, I'm not trying to piss you off or troll anything, just agreeing with you, region 1+2 is going to do more than pop based on what I'm seeing, like over +4.0C warmup, and region 3 is going well over +3.0C too, and I think we are going to steamroll 1997 in region 3.4 trimonthly as well to be honest

I wouldn't go that far. But after the Kelvin wave surfaces around December, it seems plausible that we'll see 3 and 3.4 spike (secondary peak?) after the Nino 1+2 spike, which should happen well into the winter... thinking late December and/or into January. That's assuming,

 

1) No more WWBs happen between now and December

2) Most importantly; that WSI is wrong about the Rossby wave keeping Nino 1+2 cool.

 

It's not that I dismiss WSI's thoughts about the Rossby wave... I'm too uneducated to argue that. 

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PB, I'm not trying to piss you off or troll anything, just agreeing with you, region 1+2 is going to do more than pop based on what I'm seeing, like over +4.0C warmup, and region 3 is going well over +3.0C too, and I think we are going to steamroll 1997 in region 3.4 trimonthly as well to be honest

A pop would indicate a most definite increase. I am always hesitant to use words like explode etc because these anamolies like to incrementally shift higher.

.2C .3C week to week increase is a pop IMO, for me the fact is the energy it has taken to warm the entire region is impressive.

I have always said the scope of the heat in the basin especially from 100 to 140 was really impressive , but there is no doubt we are AN in a big way from 80 to 180.

But you guys are loving R 1.2 , thats Kool . For the winter though that R 4 reading of 1.1 C is close to a record and that 30C water is where we are / should continue to force this winter.

So in the end we both may get what we wanted . A side note that warm water S of the Aleutians stuck.

I like.

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:lol:

 

Coming back to this... I did some number crunching for 'fun'.

 

The far westward extent of the >2.5 contour has shifted east about 25 degrees (145W minus 120W), the far eastward extent of that contour has shifted east by about 20 degrees (120W minus 100W)

 

A distance of 25 degrees longitude at the equator is 2778 km (1726 miles).
A distance of 20 degrees longitude is 2222 km (1380 miles).
 
From eyeballing it, the apparent shift started in late July. It's late September right now... so that's about 60 days. 
 
Therefore, 1726 miles over 60 days is 28.767 miles/day or about 1.19 MPH.
A 1380 mile shift over 60 days is 23 miles/day or about 0.958 MPH.

 

That must have been a blast.

Chicks dig obscure ENSO calculations.

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Do you believe the best forcing makes it to the dateline by winter?

Check the OLR it's there now. And if it stays , it's a positive.

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Best forcing to start October about 30 degrees west of 1997 around 150W instead of 120W.

attachicon.gifVP.png

attachicon.gifvp.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

I freely accept to have this look more like 09/10 in the end game it is going to take all hands on deck.

However we are at least seeing those pieces starting to show up

Basin wide Nino

Record R 4 SST

AN sst S of the Aleutians

DL forcing

-AO correlation

Possible AT side blocking.

Even if these all are in this pattern come D-M we probably agree there are no guarantees .

However it is always better to have them present when trying to put this puzzle together.

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I freely accept to have this look more like 09/10 in the end game it is going to take all hands on deck.

However we are at least seeing those pieces starting to show up

Basin wide Nino

Record R 4 SST

AN sst S of the Aleutians

DL forcing

-AO correlation

Possible AT side blocking.

Even if these all are in this pattern come D-M we probably agree there are no guarantees .

However it is always better to have them present when trying to put this puzzle together.

Can you imagine precip anomalies on par with 1997 overlaid onto anything resembling a 2010 forcing scheme?

My pants are already off....

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Can you imagine precip anomalies on par with 1997 overlaid onto anything resembling a 2010 forcing scheme?

My pants are already off....

One BM winter here was 95/96 in the MA it has to be 09/10 and last year I assume was yours .

The dream scenario is you block up the pattern with one center after another running into to the back of another slowing the next one down off the EC.

Worthy of a smile.

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That must have been a blast.

Chicks dig obscure ENSO calculations.

Do they ever  ;)

 

Mike Ventrice just tweeted this, but this is as classic a strong Nino pattern you can get. And Isotherm, here is the huge GOA vortex you were watching for this month...https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/650020484692750336

Pretty crazy

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Ahhem,

You know that's not a good sign for your blowtorch winter call right ?

Confused, I never called for a blowtorch winter nor did I make any forecast #huh

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Confused, I never called for a blowtorch winter nor did I make any forecast #huh

#wut

You are not the one who thought this NINO would over power the winter pattern ?

Could I/everyone else here have mistaken your context ?

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Confused, I never called for a blowtorch winter nor did I make any forecast #huh

you may not have called for a blowtorch winter however anything that you would point out would point to one aka zones 1 & 2 for El Nino

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That is exactly what he said....something to the effect of "I can't wait to this el nino completely overpower the pattern this winter"..

So a Nino dominant pattern with a juiced stj really equals blowtorch, ok got it thanks for translating my comments for me

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So a Nino dominant pattern with a juiced stj really equals blowtorch, ok got it thanks for translating my comments for me

So why do you make underhanded comments to me such as "hope you're still this happy in february".

Dude, your undertone is so apparent.

Give the whole 2nd grade, "but I never said that" mantra a rest.

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