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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion


mackerel_sky

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Here you go.

www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/01L_floater.html

Looks like it's beginning its transition to tropical storm Ana.

 

Thanks....looks real good all things considered, really trying to tuck that llc into the right place....this keeps up and it will be TS Ana by 11 pm if not at 5, need a plane out there to take a look. Basic structure looks much better and much more tropical. I have seen storms that are legit TS that look way worse than Ana does ATM

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Hmmmm flight level winds 70-80 mph on the NE side in all the heaviest convection not to shabby at all......lots of 40-50 mph surface winds as well......looks pretty damn good for a first week of May with marginal conditions system as well......recon might actually hit the center this time and I bet its 996-997....

 

edit: 997.3 extrap that pass.....

 

84 mph FL wind

 

 

Time: 00:37:00Z Coordinates: 32.350N 75.683W Acft. Static Air Press: 844.7 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,531 m Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 144° at 70 kts (From the SE at 80.6 mph) Air Temp: 8.8°C* (47.8°F*) Dew Pt: -* Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 73 kts (84.0 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 kts (52.9 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr (0.35 in/hr)
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Hmmmm flight level winds 70-80 mph on the NE side in all the heaviest convection not to shabby at all......lots of 40-50 mph surface winds as well......looks pretty damn good for a first week of May with marginal conditions system as well......recon might actually hit the center this time and I bet its 996-997....

 

edit: 997.3 extrap that pass.....

 

84 mph FL wind

 

 

Time: 00:37:00Z Coordinates: 32.350N 75.683W Acft. Static Air Press: 844.7 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,531 m Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 144° at 70 kts (From the SE at 80.6 mph) Air Temp: 8.8°C* (47.8°F*) Dew Pt: -* Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 73 kts (84.0 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 kts (52.9 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr (0.35 in/hr)

 

 

I think it can reach hurricane strength tonight. I was ready to mark it off but this thing is a fighter.

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I think it can reach hurricane strength tonight. I was ready to mark it off but this thing is a fighter.

 

Well that's a bit of a stretch IMO....that would require it to really wrap the center with storms and get that dry air choked out for them to pull the trigger on that.....the surface winds were never above 50-55 mph so the storm isn't really organized enough to get those stronger FL winds to the surface. However it looks to be pretty much truly a tropical storm with winds 50-55 mph which is a bit more that looked possible yesterday. I guess anything is possible though and if it does really well overnight and gets more symmetrical it could make a run at a cane but that is extremely, extremely, extremely unlikely IMO with the current setup.

 

It has really done great today though and right now the loops show a system really trying to be something so who knows....its moving NW a bit already to and they will most likely speed the timetable up at 11

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Well that's a bit of a stretch IMO....that would require it to really wrap the center with storms and get that dry air choked out for them to pull the trigger on that.....the surface winds were never above 50-55 mph so the storm isn't really organized enough to get those stronger FL winds to the surface. However it looks to be pretty much truly a tropical storm with winds 50-55 mph which is a bit more that looked possible yesterday. I guess anything is possible though and if it does really well overnight and gets more symmetrical it could make a run at a cane but that is extremely, extremely, extremely unlikely IMO with the current setup.

 

It has really done great today though and right now the loops show a system really trying to be something so who knows....its moving NW a bit already to and they will most likely speed the timetable up at 11

 

I think it can not be ruled out and arthur last year got the same shape before popping an eye out.

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I think it can not be ruled out and arthur last year got the same shape before popping an eye out.

 

Yeah but we are talking water temps in the low to mid 70's right now at best, Arthur had way warmer water to work with,  typically these water temps wouldn't support a cane very well but the upper dynamics are helping a bit here so I hate to say there is no way it could happen. Again it looks pretty damn impressive on the floater loops right now..but the dry air is working around and might shut down this current flare up.....

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Yeah but we are talking water temps in the low to mid 70's right now at best, Arthur had way warmer water to work with, typically these water temps wouldn't support a cane very well but the upper dynamics are helping a bit here so I hate to say there is no way it could happen. Again it looks pretty damn impressive on the floater loops right now..but the dry air is working around and might shut down this current flare up.....

Yeah, it's over the 80 degree + Gulf Stream right now , but when it does start moving WNW, it will be in the very low 70s outside of that, so I think it peaks tonight or early tomorrow , before it starts moving into the colder water! But as stated, today's development was impressive , especially in the afternoon.
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Yeah, it's over the 80 degree + Gulf Stream right now , but when it does start moving WNW, it will be in the very low 70s outside of that, so I think it peaks tonight or early tomorrow , before it starts moving into the colder water! But as stated, today's development was impressive , especially in the afternoon.

 

11pm and they leave it a STS which with the temp difference inside and outside the center is a little surprising but they must want to see it maintain it so STS Ana it is. 60 MPH sustained winds was a shock lol I guess it wouldn't take much to get her to a cane....the thing about the Gulf Stream is the current is 4-5 knts so there is always fresh warm water moving up so these storms that sit over the same area don't upwell themselves to death. IF it sits there another day it could do it.

 

Looks like Sunday night here is gonna be interesting it should be just to my SW at 8pm and cross right over me overnight so I will be on the  N and NE side of the center until it passes. Guess I will need to start getting all the lawn furniture up tomorrow, hopefully though it wont be to windy or wet here.

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Fully tropical as of 5:00 AM

 

Ana has made the transition to a tropical storm this morning as it moves slowly north-northwestward toward the Carolinas. It's centered about 105 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach as of 5 a.m. EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Little additional strengthening today is expected, and a gradual weakening trend should begin tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning continues from the South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Lookout, and a Tropical Storm Watch continues from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to South of the South Santee River.Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ana.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and possible within the watch area, by this afternoon or evening. The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. Tropical Storm Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts of 5 inches, over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday.

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Ana looking a bit ragged, a new flare up is trying to get going so we will see what happens but it will be tough for her to get back to where she was last night I think....another thing to watch is the bands coming ashore as the day goes on.....EHI increasing across coastal NC and some weak spin ups are going to be possible

 

post-141-0-59507200-1431181187_thumb.gif

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  • 3 weeks later...

I noticed earlier today that JB gave out his first warning shot that the Gulf of Mexico may need to be watched first 7-10 days of June. He noted how the Euro in the Day 10-14 timeframe shows lower heights in the Gulf with ridging over the Eastern US...then after a few days to allow organization, the ridge splits allowing an opening northward...

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We need that to happen! It's gonna take a tropical storm or low to move over us and replenish the groundwater ! Very, very dry, over alot of the Carolinas !

 

 

Actually, groundwater levels are running at or above normal levels most areas across the Carolinas. A few locales are below normal, mainly over the sw mtns. No sigfnt issues with abnormal dryness nor impending drought conds.

 

 

post-866-0-53715700-1432674642_thumb.png

 

post-866-0-64888900-1432674618_thumb.png

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LOL --12z brings it ashore in SC and carries it into Indiana :)

 

Yeah go figure but interestingly the CMC is now getting in range as well and it and the GFS agree of the storm forming near the western tip of Cuba so starting tonight we will have another model to follow but the fact they agree at this range on the storm is pretty unusual.

 

12Z GFS  

 

post-141-0-09022900-1432676959_thumb.png

 

12Z CMC

 

post-141-0-37886500-1432676981_thumb.png

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