WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I know what Ray is saying...I am countering that there is at least one basis for persistence not working for the EPO, and it isn't necessarily a matter of hypocrisy or agenda or doublespeak.. Is the NAO a more stable, long term feature than the EPO? We've been pretty stable with it being positive in the winter for a while now. Shouldn't we expect it to flip at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 why? The persistence argument makes a lot more sense when talking about the AO/NAO...mod/strong Ninos have a pretty strong correlation with a + or neutral EPO...Plus why would anyone expect a repeat of such an outlier? Perhaps, the insane +PDO (which has a minor correlation with -EPO) might help keep the nastiness at bay, but with the strength of the Nino it is hard to make a compelling case that the EPO will average negative, especially markedly so... epo+.png Not when we have other indicators in favor of a negative AO/NAO. I agree they avg positive prob for December, but I don't think it is wise to ignore what is a pretty strong SAI signal, as well as the NPI reading this season. I think that is just a fraud cop out. Ignores everything else. The forcing is only going to be relatively far east early on. Hey, whatever.....we'll see at verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Yes, the ENSO strength/+QBO in-and-of-itself argue for a positive NAO/AO. But that is the only indicator that does. People are too quick to place a generic label on this ENSO. I favored a positive NAO last summer, but eveything I have seen this fall has changed my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I know what Ray is saying...I am countering that there is at least one basis for persistence not working for the EPO, and it isn't necessarily a matter of hypocrisy or agenda or doublespeak.. If the GOA low ends up far enough west, I don't see what precludes a neg EPO. I'm not sure just a composite of past strong +ENSO events will suffice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 A little more food for thought....you young kids probably do not know him, but Chuck Winkler, a frequent poster circa 2006-2010, has indicated that his methodology was the most emphatically supportive of a neg NAO winter as it ever has been. You may be able to find the threads back on the Eaasternuswx archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Not when we have other indicators in favor of a negative AO/NAO. I agree they avg positive prob for December, but I don't think it is wise to ignore what is a pretty strong SAI signal, as well as the NPI reading this season. I think that is just a fraud cop out. Ignores everything else. The forcing is only going to be relatively far east early on. Hey, whatever.....we'll see at verification. I don't think Siberian snow cover is as reliable of an indicator as we may have believed earlier. There are some signals that may slightly favor some blocking, but overall there's no reliable way to tell at this point how it will turn out, so I don't think persistence from the past 2 years should be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I don't think Siberian snow cover is as reliable of an indicator as we may have believed earlier. There are some signals that may slightly favor some blocking, but overall there's no reliable way to tell at this point how it will turn out, so I don't think persistence from the past 2 years should be ignored. I did not ignore it. I duly noted it, then carried on to the several viable considerations that do not support it. Period. I very well maybe wrong, and if I am, believe me, I will admit it in each and every regional thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 If the GOA low ends up far enough west, I don't see what precludes a neg EPO. I'm not sure just a composite of past strong +ENSO events will suffice here. That is a big, big if. With a basin-wide super Nino, it's going to take luck to have that vortex far enough west. And even then, I don't see how we'll have a -EPO anywhere near as good as the last two winters. Aside from a workable Pacific, we really need blocking in the north Atlantic as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Not when we have other indicators in favor of a negative AO/NAO. I agree they avg positive prob for December, but I don't think it is wise to ignore what is a pretty strong SAI signal, as well as the NPI reading this season. I think that is just a fraud cop out. Ignores everything else. The forcing is only going to be relatively far east early on. Hey, whatever.....we'll see at verification. I'm not saying the NAO/AO will be positive...I was merely pointing out why a persistence argument for the EPO is less compelling than it is for the NAO which has been positive for 16 out of the last 18 D-M months, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that it would be negative last winter....I am not particularly moved this winter by the evidence I have seen...The NPAC low is in a crappy place this October for where we want it to correlate with a -NAO....The SAI which failed last year is decent this year but nothing special...To me it is farmer's almanac-esque anyway....El Ninos do tend to force some blocky periods though...I am pretty agnostic toward the NAO/AO this winter, but gun to head I'd say positive in the means for D-M.....The strength and position of tropical forcing doesn't mean as much to me as it does to others..I do think we'll have a +PNA in the means though which should help some with cold delivery (to the extent it is available) and storm track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 That is a big, big if. With a basin-wide super Nino, it's going to take luck to have that vortex far enough west. And even then, I don't see how we'll have a -EPO anywhere near as good as the last two winters. Aside from a workable Pacific, we really need blocking in the north Atlantic as well. Considering we were record setting, neither do I. Luck? No....retrograding forcing as the season reaches matures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I'm not saying the NAO/AO will be positive...I was merely pointing out why a persistence argument for the EPO is less compelling than it is for the NAO which has been positive for 16 out of the last 18 D-M months, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that it would be negative last winter....I am not particularly moved this winter by the evidence I have seen...The NPAC low is in a crappy place this October for where we want it to correlate with a -NAO....The SAI which failed last year is decent this year but nothing special...To me it is farmer's almanac-esque anyway....El Ninos do tend to force some blocky periods though...I am pretty agnostic toward the NAO/AO this winter, but gun to head I'd say positive in the means for D-M.....The strength and position of tropical forcing doesn't mean as much to me as it does to others..I do think we'll have a +PNA in the means though which should help some with cold delivery (to the extent it is available) and storm track... But basing your entire hypothesis on a 5 year sample of strong el nino seasons isn't. Gotcha. I agree, the EPO argument is less compelling...I used the analogy to provide the impetus for some productive dialogue. Mission accomplished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 If the GOA low ends up far enough west, I don't see what precludes a neg EPO. I'm not sure just a composite of past strong +ENSO events will suffice here. If you want to dismiss the strength of this nino, more power to you...I'm not confident about AO/NAO/EPO....but I'm definitely not leaning in the direction you are..at least not at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 If you want to dismiss the strength of this nino, more power to you...I'm not confident about AO/NAO/EPO....but I'm definitely not leaning in the direction you are..at least not at the moment... Dismiss, ignore....why are you so emphatic verbage happy? I did not dismiss, nor did I ignore anything.....god forbid the utilization of an all encompassing approach, and a full breadth of perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Considering we were record setting, neither do I. Luck? No....retrograding forcing as the season reaches matures. I'm still not convinced strong 140-180 forcing will mean a -EPO...Is there even a correlation there? I agree the fear of a 97-98 repeat is overblown if for no other reason than it was such an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I'm not sure I'd dub the SAI an inferior predictor because of one season... Look at the winter I had with a +AO/NAO last season. I hope you're right about that persistent positive NAO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I'm still not convinced strong 140-180 forcing will mean a -EPO...Is there even a correlation there? I agree the fear of a 97-98 repeat is overblown if for no other reason than it was such an outlier Good question. I would have to think there is at least for 160-180.....if there is a correlation for +EPO on the other end of the spectrum, why not??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I'd like to propose a new word in the spirit of mansplaining and whitesplaining "newenglandsplaining", or I am open to a better name definition - when a new englander talks to you in a condescending way about weather, particularly about climo in your backyard and/or about meteorological concepts, especially in terms of how they affect the mid-atlantic and/or assumes that the features that are good/bad for new england apply to the mid atlantic.... Example - MA dude - "Man, we really could use a west based NAO for the mid atlantic to do well this winter" SNE dude - "But last winter was historic. It's obviously not as important as you think" MA dude - "It wasn't historic here. It was decent by Mid Atlantic standards, but nothing special, other than really cold in February. We had one decent snow period from mid February to Early march" SNE dude - "Yes, and that period was a raging +NAO" MA dude - "Not really for the first event, and 2 others were mixy. We lucked out on another. But in any case, none were huge events. We typically need a -AO/+AO for area wide big snow events. A lot was a product of just having a sick air mass" SNE dude - "Well, that's because we did have blocking. A block over AK is just as important as AO/NAO blocking" MA dude - "Yes, but we really need AO/NAO blocking here to prevent storms from cutting to our west" SNE dude - "Tell that to 13-14 and 93-94" MA dude - "We did well in the 1st with some real luck imo, but the 2nd was actually pretty mixy down here" SNE dude - "I hear ya. Hopefully we can get a weak nino like 04-05, 76-77, 77-78 so we can all cash in with huge snows" I'm not sure I'd dub the SAI an inferior predictor because of one season... Look at the winter I had with a +AO/NAO last season. I hope you're right about that persistent positive NAO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 It was tongue-in-cheek. It was meant to dissuade people like you for making rash judgments based off of one year. The point was that one should still consider a neg AO/NAO far more favorable. There are, however, other variables...which is something you can't seem to fathom relative to this ENSO event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 winner: matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 winner: matt Clueless: you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Good question. I would have to think there is at least for 160-180.....if there is a correlation for +EPO on the other end of the spectrum, why not??? meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Clueless: you Meh. I'm okay with that. Do go post about me in your banter thread some more. It was some nice reading, even the deleted posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 It was tongue-in-cheek. It was meant to dissuade people like you for making rash judgments based off of one year. The point was that one should still consider a neg AO/NAO far more favorable. There are, however, other variables...which is something you can't seem to fathom relative to this ENSO event. What can't I fathom? I've addressed every point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 winner: matt Agreed. The elephant in the room is the cold North Atlantic forcing a +NAO. The last two years have warped the perception of not only local climo, but also the ongoing processes that are always a few oscillations away from returning to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Agreed. The elephant in the room is the cold North Atlantic forcing a +NAO. The last two years have warped the perception of not only local climo, but also the ongoing processes that are always a few oscillations away from returning to us. A cold north Atlantic doesn't necessarily lead to a +NAO either. Like I told 40/70, there's no reliable way to know what the NAO/AO will do this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Meh. I'm okay with that. Do go post about me in your banter thread some more. It was some nice reading, even the deleted posts. Map girl?Didn't know it was you. I honestly didn't mean to start anything with the NAO reference.....I could use a 2010reference to illustrate the point that even though the season was a toaster bath for us, I'd still rather an NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Agreed. The elephant in the room is the cold North Atlantic forcing a +NAO. The last two years have warped the perception of not only local climo, but also the ongoing processes that are always a few oscillations away from returning to us.Nothing is warped....the post was 110% sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 What can't I fathom? I've addressed every point...Nothing else left to say.If you want to use one season to dispell was is not a perfect correlation, the contention is a dead end. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Nothing else left to say. If you want to use one season to dispell was is not a perfect correlation, the contention is a dead end. We'll see what happens. I said I'm basically agnostic toward NAO/AO, and there are several reasons why...I'm not completely ignoring Judah Cohen, but a 70th percentile SAI is not enough to sway me given some other mitigating factors, especially when he lost the super bowl last winter 49-0 after being an 18 pt favorite.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Gotcha. Sry,on my cell. You doing an outlook? You know your stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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