Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Roy]

May be ending our school journalism banquet early tonight. Hate to cancel since the kids paid money, but I also don't want baseball hail hitting my car or theirs, much less a tornado bearing down on us. Apparently they had to end it early last year when they had it due to a tornado warning. 

[bubba hotep]

Storms are firing sw down the backside of eastward propagating bore in Oklahoma. Wonder if that trend will continue down into N. Texas? Looks like the models mostly missed this development.

[Calderon]

Agitated atmosphere managed to fire off some elevated hailers, but I think the atmosphere down here is capped a bit better and will do little, if anything, at this point in the day.

[Quixotic1]

David Finfrock took over for Harold Taft when he passed.  

[bubba hotep]

Agitated atmosphere managed to fire off some elevated hailers, but I think the atmosphere down here is capped a bit better and will do little, if anything, at this point in the day.

Yea, pulled up OUN sounding and the cap was a good bit weaker up there.

[jhamps10]

Has this ever happened around here before?? Just heard on NBC 5 that schools in Stephenville and Dublin are closing early because of the storm threat today.. I've heard this often on AL and MS but never in North Texas

[bubba hotep]

As expected, Mod expanded southward

 

[jhamps10]

45%wind looks to be the culprit for the upgrade down here, no surprise at all to me

[Quixotic1]

Has this ever happened around here before?? Just heard on NBC 5 that schools in Stephenville and Dublin are closing early because of the storm threat today.. I've heard this often on AL and MS but never in North Texas

We've had 5 high risk days before, so this isn't unprecedented.  

[bubba hotep]

Special 18z sounding coming from FWD

[bubba hotep]

Looks most of the hi-res models are locking in on a single line of storms pushing through DFW tonight. That should limit the tornado and giant hail threat. Interestingly, none of them seem to have the current Oklahoma convection, so go figure.

[bubba hotep]

The 1-min Sat scans continue to be awesome viewing! Plenty of signs of large scale lift spreading in from the west.

[radarman]

Special 18z sounding coming from FWD

 

no surprise of course but the cap remains stout with extreme mid-level lapse rates above. 

 

[bubba hotep]

Big cap still in place per FWD 18z special

ETA: see above

[cstrunk]

no surprise of course but the cap remains stout with extreme mid-level lapse rates above. 

 

 

The wild field displays VBV, correct? If so, is that expected to improve?

[bubba hotep]

Based on surface obs and the 1-min Sat scans, forcing should increase enough to fire the dryline in the next couple of hours. Childress down to Big Spring area?

[Macintosh]

Based on surface obs and the 1-min Sat scans, forcing should increase enough to fire the dryline in the next couple of hours. Childress down to Big Spring area?

Can you link he satellite 1-min? I am a casual observer and don't have it handy.

[bubba hotep]

Can you link he satellite 1-min? I am a casual observer and don't have it handy.

Here you go:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/

[cheese007]

Tornado watch issued for most of DFW

[NTXYankee]

Tornado watch issued for most of DFW

A PDS Tornado Watch to be exact.  I don't think I have ever lived in an area with one issued and did not expect it.

[cheese007]

Yeah I saw that after posting. Not gonna lie that's a bit worrying. Got a bunch of friends in student government who are gonna be at a banquet around 5:45 until 8:00

[jhamps10]

Have to lie I did not expect the pds to go this far south.. A little worry some but still be aware not scared, don't expect storms in the metro until 7:30 or 8 at the earliest I think

[Roy]

Well, due to this, the principal's office made me reschedule our journalism banquet tonight. Luckily they had not started cooking so we could. At least my car will be in the garage. Keller ISD is canceling all after school events past 6 p.m.

[bubba hotep]

Based on surface obs and the 1-min Sat scans, forcing should increase enough to fire the dryline in the next couple of hours. Childress down to Big Spring area?

 

Cells rapidly going off near Big Spring, possibly more concerning, cell trying to fire SE of Abilene. That whole area down south of Abilene is very agitated looking. 

[NTXYankee]

Cells rapidly going off near Big Spring, possibly more concerning, cell trying to fire SE of Abilene. That whole area down south of Abilene is very agitated looking. 

The ones near Abilene not strong by any means, but holding on.  Looks like the lift hasn't reached them yet.  FWD mentioned how strong the lift was moving in, those storms out by Big Spring are behind the dryline.

 

Edit:  Latest scan of radar, looks like lift might be moving in, uptick in activity now around that area SE of Abilene.  Looking outside it appears the clouds are starting to get some upward motion to them as well, so cap might finally be lifting.

[bubba hotep]

Riding train north from Dallas and don't really see any signs that the cap is giving up. Maybe off to the SW but not really seeing any towering.

[Quixotic1]

Riding train north from Dallas and don't really see any signs that the cap is giving up. Maybe off to the SW but not really seeing any towering.

Well, depending on perspective, it is starting to get that hazy look out here where the tops are blowing off anvils to the west and the LLJ is pushing cumulus off to the north at about 30 knots. That's a good sign for us if we are looking for action.

The PDS has me spooked. First time I've thought about Jarrell in a while.

[radarman]

That first set of cells that came in west of Ft Worth were demolished by the warm layer.  There should be a few more chances over the next couple hours...  possibly one or two finally overcomes and goes bonkers, but that line is going to be hard charging out of the west... 00z sounding will be interesting.  If the EML has not eroded they may consider dropping the tornado watch for a severe thunderstorm watch, or at least drop the PDS tornado probs in lieu of wind probs.

[jhamps10]

There's some cells trying to get going on top of Ft worth now.. I think the cap keeps em weak tho

[radarman]

 

Cap is weakening but still present.  Also the warm layer has moved up some.  Pretty nice turning of the winds down low, but the meridional flow aloft suggests that anything that busts through completely should form segments quickly.  Still I think the embedded QLCS tornado potential is substantial with that look and a strengthening LLJ.