Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

HRRR continues to trend towards bringing a decent looking MCS into DFW tonight:

[bubba hotep]

Storms are trying to move in

 

 

[weatherextreme]

Storms are trying to move in

 

 

 

 

Looks like Denton will prob get hit some

[bubba hotep]

Looks like Denton will prob get hit some

 

Yea, a nice little sub svr storm moved through, probably a decent light show up that way with it. 

[bubba hotep]

It looks like any model that does initiate storms this afternoon does it east of I35. Those storms will probably be well east of the area before becoming mature supercells. However, if we do get clearing then it could be a rare opportunity for us out east to see some structure. It seems like the best structure is always out west and things are already growing upscale by the time they hit I35. 

 

[bubba hotep]

4K NAM, HRRR and HRRRx all fire a few isolated cells in the vicinity of I35 this afternoon. They seem to be handling the mixing east of the dryline pretty well at this time. 

 

[weatherextreme]

4K NAM, HRRR and HRRRx all fire a few isolated cells in the vicinity of I35 this afternoon. They seem to be handling the mixing east of the dryline pretty well at this time. 

 

 

 

Edited my prior question. 

 

 What does the white circle stand for and the red shaded location?

[bubba hotep]

Latest from FWD

 

[bubba hotep]

Looks like Tarrant and Collin could be included in the watch

 

[bubba hotep]

Clearing skies, warming temps and kicking winds have this feeling like a svr wx afternoon out this way.

[bubba hotep]

Polygon dips into Tarrant and Colin but watch doesn't include them, makes sense with best forcing being to the north and storm coverage being questionable farther south. 

 

[bubba hotep]

There appears to be some concentrated agitation down along the dryline bulge but will that be enough to fire storms?

 

[weatherextreme]

There appears to be some concentrated agitation down along the dryline bulge but will that be enough to fire storms?

 

 

 

 

Bubba, thanks for all these updates.

[bubba hotep]

Bubba, thanks for all these updates.

 

Happen to be off today and on baby duty. There isn't much else you can do while holding a baby    

[bubba hotep]

First attempts just west of Ft. Worth but nothing on CASA yet.

 

[radarman]

First attempts just west of Ft. Worth but nothing on CASA yet.

should have the new radar at Mesquite metro airport up by next week.

[bubba hotep]

First sustained attempt just south of Venus,TX but will it maintain? Showing up on CASA. The combo of 1 min Sat and 1 min radar could make one very unproductive Good thing I can't really do anything else at this time. 

 

 

[bubba hotep]

2nd more impressive attempt in the wake of the first cell

 

 

[bubba hotep]

In the end, that storm couldn't maintain the updraft 

[NTXYankee]

Another DFW dud, becoming too common.

[bubba hotep]

Another DFW dud, becoming too common.

 

I knew the last couple of days were not a great setup for DFW but thought we might sneak in a lone photogenic cell this afternoon. Things looked more impressive last week when the ensembles had a slower ejection of the system and Tuesday looked like it would be the day to watch around here. Anyway, I did get a crappy cell phone pic from my backyard of the warned cell up near Paris, TX

 

[Quixotic1]

I knew the last couple of days were not a great setup for DFW but thought we might sneak in a lone photogenic cell this afternoon. Things looked more impressive last week when the ensembles had a slower ejection of the system and Tuesday looked like it would be the day to watch around here. Anyway, I did get a crappy cell phone pic from my backyard of the warned cell up near Paris, TX

 

Great pic!

Looks like our old friend Northwesterly flow is back. Good for MCSs drifting down this way.

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm, the 00z 4k NAM and 21z SREF are indicating that there might be a chance for some storms around DFW tomorrow afternoon. The 4k NAM is printing nearly 6000 MUCAPE by 00z and fires a few rouge cells but keeps the majority of the action to the SW of DFW. 

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm, the 00z 4k NAM and 21z SREF are indicating that there might be a chance for some storms around DFW tomorrow afternoon. The 4k NAM is printing nearly 6000 MUCAPE by 00z and fires a few rouge cells but keeps the majority of the action to the SW of DFW.

ETA: SPC D1 Slight expanded NE to include DFW

[bubba hotep]

FWD is sounding a bit mor concerned about this afternoon. Temps are already in the mid to upper 80s allowing an explosive atmosphere to load up. Trigger mechanism seems to be questionable as you head NE.

[cstrunk]

Looks like a SVR watch will be issued soon for a large slice through TX from north-central to south-west, including DFW.

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0584.html

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a SVR watch will be issued soon for a large slice through TX from north-central to south-west, including DFW.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0584.html

Just issued as the dryline starts to bubble.

[radarman]

Severe watch is mostly for hail. 

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  10%

I think this could be underdone slightly... I'd have gone more like 35%.... Not entirely out of the question to get a really towering multi-cell collapse today IMO.

[Quixotic1]

3500 CAPEs out there.  

[bubba hotep]

Only a few whispy clouds here in downtown right now. It looks like there are two local boundaries mixing around. Maybe a secondary dryline just west of Ft. Worth separating low 70s from mid 60s? And then another area of something along 75?