Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

HRRR is drawing up another DFW Spring Special with storms dying as they move across DFW later tonight. However, the HRRRx pushes them through most of the area before killing them off. The 18z 4k NAM laughs at both and leaves DFW mostly dry. 

[DoctorMu]

A slew of tornadoes have formed along the dry line.  Big Spring, west of Childress, top of the panhandle under the gun.

[bubba hotep]

A slew of tornadoes have formed along the dry line.  Big Spring, west of Childress, top of the panhandle under the gun.

 

This looks like it could end up being the biggest tornado day so far this May. There were 6 on the 16th but they were all EF0/1. I would be willing to bet that today produced the strongest tornado of the month. The Big Spring tornado looks to be classic W. Texas:

 

 

This was credited as being the 2nd Big Spring tornado, image is from Jen Amber @jenamber 

 

[bubba hotep]

HRRR is drawing up another DFW Spring Special with storms dying as they move across DFW later tonight. However, the HRRRx pushes them through most of the area before killing them off. The 18z 4k NAM laughs at both and leaves DFW mostly dry. 

 

Can they make it to DFW?

 

[bubba hotep]

If Thursday looks decent, I might drive out west of DFW and setup shop.

 

 

Things have slowly been trending east and Thursday might actually be a local chase chance. Planning on taking off work at noon before a 4 day weekend. 

[NTXYankee]

Oh good another outflow boundary blows through, surprise.....

Side note, I got a chuckle out of this last part of the AFD:

Otherwise...thunderstorms are expected to really

increase in coverage during the day Thursday with additional

chances into Friday as the shortwave moves east across the

southern Plains. Severe weather will be possible on both days.

I read it as "no really, it's gonna happen this time."

[Quixotic1]

These storms have great structures. Roll clouds, wall clouds, shelf clouds. Violent lightning.

[bubba hotep]

Finally, a dying MCS is holding on long enough to bring a decent downpour to MBY.

[bubba hotep]

Lol.... You can basically take this to the bank if you live in N. Texas. Models show big rains for DFW in the D5 - D10 range and then drop it. Has been the pattern the last few weeks.

From FWD AFD:

In

addition there is a concern that the vigorous convection may tend

to develop more across South Central and Southeast Texas as the

ECMWF shows which would intercept the best moisture/instability

across North Texas.

ETA: The 12z EPS still favors N. Texas but it seems like it has been folding to the operational more often than not here lately.

[bubba hotep]

I read it as "no really, it's gonna happen this time."

Sounds like the day shift is opening the door to walk that back

[NTXYankee]

Lol.... You can basically take this to the bank if you live in N. Texas. Models show big rains for DFW in the D5 - D10 range and then drop it. Has been the pattern the last few weeks.

From FWD AFD:

In

addition there is a concern that the vigorous convection may tend

to develop more across South Central and Southeast Texas as the

ECMWF shows which would intercept the best moisture/instability

across North Texas.

ETA: The 12z EPS still favors N. Texas but it seems like it has been folding to the operational more often than not here lately.

I saw that piece in the AFD and thought if there is concern already for south central and southeast Texas to steal moisture flow and instability from North Texas you can probably guarantee that will happen. Plus it's been the norm lately....ugh

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro looks like it develops a MCS this evening and sends it down I35. Areas east of I35 in DFW look to pickup an inch or so of rain. However, there doesn't appear to be much support for this unless some of the obscure WRFs show it.

ETA: looks like the NSSL-WRF 00z run shows something similar

[bubba hotep]

I wonder if this is what the Euro was picking up?

Also, incoming s/w might be just strong enough to bust the cap over N. Texas with storms firing west of DFW. Pretty big CAPE in place if something can get going.

[Quixotic1]

Small line forming out past weatherford.

[Quixotic1]

Outrageous DPs. If something pops it will go boom.

[Calderon]

Problem is, it'll almost assuredly stay elevated, so it'll be kept in check.

[bubba hotep]

Small line forming out past weatherford.

Not seeing anything that suggests explosive development but I'm on the train looking back west through the haze. I must admit that my interest was peaked when they first popped but most likely just elevated trash.

[Quixotic1]

Problem is, it'll almost assuredly stay elevated, so it'll be kept in check.

Yeah I can see a bit of a cap problem on the NAM from the twister data site. What is the site where everyone gets the great hodos and skew ts from? Thought I had bookmarked it.

Not seeing anything that suggests explosive development but I'm on the train looking back west through the haze. I must admit that my interest was peaked when they first popped but most likely just elevated trash.

Yeah it's odd. Way out in front of the dry line. Pretty stable development wise but moving at a pretty good clip.

ETA: and they're fizzling.

[NTXYankee]

Yeah I can see a bit of a cap problem on the NAM from the twister data site. What is the site where everyone gets the great hodos and skew ts from? Thought I had bookmarked it.

Yeah it's odd. Way out in front of the dry line. Pretty stable development wise but moving at a pretty good clip.

ETA: and they're fizzling.

I think they use the College of Dupage site

[Quixotic1]

I think they use the College of Dupage site

Thanks for that!

[bubba hotep]

Pivotal Weather is my new fav sight for that stuff

[Quixotic1]

Pivotal Weather is my new fav sight for that stuff

Thanks! Still chasing Thursday?

[bubba hotep]

Thanks! Still chasing Thursday?

Probably not, things don't look so great right now. Probably early convection to our south shuts things down around DFW. I was pretty limited to an hour or two west of DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Oh look... That impulse that couldn't get it done around here is setting off svr warned storms across C. Ok. What a crap stretch for weenies around DFW. Although, my wife said yesterday mornings storm had very impressive lightning.

[Roy]

Very frustrating. Window is closing extremely fast as summer is almost here to get decent rainfall.

[Quixotic1]

Oh look... That impulse that couldn't get it done around here is setting off svr warned storms across C. Ok. What a crap stretch for weenies around DFW. Although, my wife said yesterday mornings storm had very impressive lightning.

She wasn't kidding. I sat in the car in the work lot. CTG everywhere. Also, the most perfect roll cloud I've ever seen.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR was more hip to storms in this area with earlier runs but FWD is still interested this afternoon:

[weatherextreme]

Forbes has some interesting words to say about this Friday

 

 

 

 

FRIDAY 5/27
Another day of possible severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak as the upper-air system continues eastward. Scattered severe thunderstorms in south MN, west-central and southwest WI, extreme southeast SD, IA, northwest IL, east NE, central and east KS, OK (except panhandle), central and east TX, west half AR, MO (except southeast), extreme northwest LA. TORCON - 5 KS and OK areas, north-central and northeast TX; 4 - south-central and southeast TX; 3 - east NE, west AR, northwest LA, south MN, 
southwest and west-central WI; 2 to 3 rest of area

 

 

 

 

 

[bubba hotep]

Forbes has some interesting words to say about this Friday

FRIDAY 5/27

Another day of possible severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak as the upper-air system continues eastward. Scattered severe thunderstorms in south MN, west-central and southwest WI, extreme southeast SD, IA, northwest IL, east NE, central and east KS, OK (except panhandle), central and east TX, west half AR, MO (except southeast), extreme northwest LA. TORCON - 5 KS and OK areas, north-central and northeast TX; 4 - south-central and southeast TX; 3 - east NE, west AR, northwest LA, south MN,

southwest and west-central WI; 2 to 3 rest of area

I like how he is still using his 1980s copied map to draw updates on

Friday seems to have more potential than tomorrow but both days look to be hindered be overnight/morning convection (DFW speaking). Who knows, maybe S. Texas MCSs won't steal all the moisture this go round.

[NTXYankee]

I like how he is still using his 1980s copied map to draw updates on

Friday seems to have more potential than tomorrow but both days look to be hindered be overnight/morning convection (DFW speaking). Who knows, maybe S. Texas MCSs won't steal all the moisture this go round.

Considering the HRRR seems to be on something really good taking that model with a grain of salt, the 4K nam and to some extent the NAM at 18z offer some hope for Thursday and Friday by not providing a southern Texas screw over, here is to hoping they remain under a firm cap.