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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Don't know how accurate the numbers are but looking at the convective parameters from the FWD site and while we don't have 7500 CAPE, much of the area is above 3000. Unfortunately the CIN seems to be around 100 and according to the site, 30 and below would be breakable. Ugh.

 

Was just outside with the kids and there looks to still be a decent cap in place. There is an axis of higher theta-e and a corresponding CAPE nose just west of Ft. Worth, that could be the area to watch locally over the next couple of hours. 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

At least the Euro came in with an honest answer today, keeping all the rain either west or south of DFW. That NE corner of the state can't seem to buy any storms lately.

It's got potential. As I sit out here grilling some ribeye and sipping on Bushmills, it is like a sauna. The storms off to the west and southwest seem to be keeping their strength up, but i would prefer them congealing into an MCS. That at least would give it a push.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Cjp-YttUgAAi7xp.jpg

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292156Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AT
THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE DFW METROPLEX. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD INTO AN AREA THAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY MODIFIED BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE IN THE
1500-3000 J/KG RANGE. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK
LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...THOUGH MODESTLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
AND MODERATE ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED MULTICELL
MODE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES. AT THIS TIME...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/GUYER.. 05/29/2016


ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

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radarman

radarman

Posted
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Lightning is kicking with this cell!

Cool picture from WFAA:

CjqQ67aVAAAt52M.jpg

nice pic

yeah I was pretty surprised to see the initiation near Dallas proper... just doesn't seem to happen too often.

There has been a fair amount of shear evident on the Mesquite radar... storm scale stuff, indicative of good updrafts and maybe some small hail.

The rain is good though... I could see a few nocturnal MCSs in the next week but after that the ridge might dominate for a while.

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