Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[weatherextreme]

 

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111932Z - 112100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE ACROSS THE MCD AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
N-CNTRL TX...AIRMASS RECOVERY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MCD
AREA...WITH PLENTIFUL DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MLCAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE INTO THE 2000-3500 J/KG RANGE PER 19Z RAP MESOANALYSIS.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE
EXTENDING ABOUT 40 SE LUB TO 30 E MRF...AND ALONG A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE DRYLINE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN N TX. RECENT
HRRR-PARALLEL RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE
MCD AREA COMBINED WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF N/CNTRL TX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

[Chinook]

that 6345 J/kg of CAPE at FWD is huge. I may have to put that on my high CAPE/heat index page. by the way, EHI was 9.95, with a CAPE of 6345 J/kg and a 3km SRH of 251 m2/s2.

[weatherextreme]

that 6345 J/kg of CAPE at FWD is huge. I may have to put that on my high CAPE/heat index page. by the way, EHI was 9.95, with a CAPE of 6345 J/kg and a 3km SRH of 251 m2/s2.

 

 

Was that from yesterday?

[Chinook]

Yes, that was yesterday. You should check the last full page of this thread, somebody else posted the SPC sharppy sounding from Fort Worth.

[bubba hotep]

1-min Sat scans are back up after being down all day. Watch issued for far western DFW. We might see an eastward expansion or a new watch issued at some point later tonight.

[1900hurricane]

Could be some big winds in the storm cluster north of Abilene. DYX radar was catching inbounds of 90 miles per hour less than three thousand feet up.

[bubba hotep]

Could be some big winds in the storm cluster north of Abilene. DYX radar was catching inbounds of 90 miles per hour less than three thousand feet up.

Add to that reports of very large hail!

That frontal boundary bulge is working tricks. That cell is moving SE along it and cells farther east are moving NE along it.

[weatherextreme]

Add to that reports of very large hail!

That frontal boundary bulge is working tricks. That cell is moving SE along it and cells farther east are moving NE along it.

 

 

 

Looks like the main super cell is getting somewhat weaker from the most resent scan

 

Edit; Well , that changed after 1 scan

[weatherextreme]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

642 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SHACKELFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

 

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

    

* AT 641 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF ALBANY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT

  50 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. 

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 

           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 

           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 

           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

  ALBANY AROUND 650 PM CDT. 

  MORAN AND IBEX AROUND 700 PM CDT. 

 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE

MCCARTY LAKE...BIG COUNTRY BAPTIST ASSEMBLY AND US-

283 NEAR THE CALLAHAN-SHACKELFORD COUNTY LINE.

[weatherextreme]

Kelley streaming close to the warning location

 

 

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

[bubba hotep]

LCLs were pretty high out that way earlier. Either way, combo of high winds and large hail is scary.

[Quixotic1]

Looks like a line is forming. I have to admit splitsville and near misses are getting tiresome. I need some storms to get me through to September.

[bubba hotep]

FWD 00z sounding not nearly as juiced as last night but still nearly 5,000 MUCAPE

 

[bubba hotep]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN/WRN AR...CNTRL/ERN/SRN
OK...N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 120111Z - 120345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AROUND 02-04Z. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD GENERALLY EWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC OBS SUGGEST A FRONT LIES INVOF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND EXTENDS NEWD INTO
CNTRL MO. OUN AND FWD 00Z RAOBS SAMPLE A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
E OF THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
BENEATH AN EML. BUOYANCY IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER FARTHER NE INTO MO.

WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY DEEP ASCENT APPROACHING THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC BOUNDARY...AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AROUND 02Z-04Z WHEN STRONGER ASCENT OVERTAKES THE
BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
INDICATE BOUNDARY-LAYER CU DEEPENING E OF THE FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO
NWRN AR...AND DEEPER CONVECTION COULD ARISE IN THIS CORRIDOR.
ALSO...EVOLVING CONVECTION IN N TX ADDRESSED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
610 COULD SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME...AS COLD POOLS EXPAND FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION.

MODESTLY LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER WILL
SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE
LOCALIZED COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION ENSUES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF MORE ROBUST INCREASE IN SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2016


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...

[weatherextreme]

Cell that had the tornado warning earlier is splitting off from the main storm line.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a line is forming. I have to admit splitsville and near misses are getting tiresome. I need some storms to get me through to September.

 

It's trying! Yeah, I dread even thinking about July and August in the DFW area. It seems like they have all been horrible since I've moved here. 

[1900hurricane]

The next two systems or so should hopefully bring some good rain. Medium range guidance is hinting that the death ridge could make its first appearance of the year 7-10 days out.

[bubba hotep]

Watch expanded eastward to include Denton, Tarrant and Johnson. Will they hold on to cross I35? 

 

[bubba hotep]

Two nights in a row for Ft. Worth

 

[Chinook]

Mineral Wells got 0.80" in the last hour. Best of luck getting some rain for your lawns in DFW, as well as some cracks of thunder.

[bubba hotep]

Mineral Wells got 0.80" in the last hour. Best of luck getting some rain for your lawns in DFW, as well as some cracks of thunder.

 

I feel lucky to have scored about an inch last night, so I will head off to bed hear soon without worries  

 

SPC seems kind of torn as to what will happen, will increasing CIN win out or will there be enough unstable inflow and deep shear to keep things going. Things still look pretty healthy on CASA as the line moves towards Ft. Worth. 

[Quixotic1]

It's trying! Yeah, I dread even thinking about July and August in the DFW area. It seems like they have all been horrible since I've moved here.

Were you here for 2011? That's about as bad as it gets.

[Roy]

So I'm confused. Chris Robbins is posting about downbursts with 80 mph winds heading toward Southlake. The storm is not even warned in Tarrant now. I don't see what he is showing from his radar on his FB page when I look at Radarscope. I'm just confused. Is his radar malfunctioning or something...just strange.

 

Nobody else is reporting that, but his radar image clearly showed strong velocities...but not NWS radar from what I saw.

[Quixotic1]

Might be from the storms collapsing.

[weatherextreme]

Got word that sirens went off in Collin County for couple minutes. 

[bubba hotep]

It is hard to tell b/c the cell was moving over the Ft. Worth radar sight and the CASA Addison radar is having some issues it seems. But it did appear that the line started to bow out and take more of a NE jog as it moved trough. There is now a warning for Dallas and Collin

 

[bubba hotep]

It looks like this could turn into a long night around N. Texas. Another watch has been issued and WPC has a meso discussion out for flash flooding. And then another round of storms is still possible later on as the front starts to surge south.

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0203
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 120359Z - 120959Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THE EARLY STAGES OF AN MCS WITH A LEADING EDGE OF
BOWING CONVECTION AND A TRAILING LINE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...WITH STORM RELATIVE FLOW ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLANK
OF THE LINE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION EXPANDS
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL COOLING
AND SATURATION WILL ALSO REACH NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLE.

GIVEN VEERING WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH
INFLOW OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS TO SUPPORT PROPAGATION...CELL MOTIONS OF
WNW AT 20 KNOTS IS REASONABLE. ALONG WITH DEEP UPDRAFTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...PEAK RAIN RATES 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE LIKELY...WITH A DURATION OF 2 HOURS POSSIBLE. GIVEN 3
HOURLY FFG VALUES NEAR 3 INCHES...THESE VALUES WOULD EXCEED
GUIDANCE.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

[Chinook]

So I'm confused. Chris Robbins is posting about downbursts with 80 mph winds heading toward Southlake. The storm is not even warned in Tarrant now. I don't see what he is showing from his radar on his FB page when I look at Radarscope. I'm just confused. Is his radar malfunctioning or something...just strange.

 

Nobody else is reporting that, but his radar image clearly showed strong velocities...but not NWS radar from what I saw.

I have an answer for you (I think). Chris Robbins posted base velocity data from TDAL airport radar, which shows some 68kt winds in that area. Also the radar is directly east of Grapevine. That's a sign that there could have been 68kt winds at the surface. Watch out!

[Quixotic1]

Getting high winds IMBY. Weather station is down so I'm guessing 50 knots. Lotta lightning. Not much rain.

[Roy]

I have an answer for you (I think). Chris Robbins posted base velocity data from TDAL airport radar, which shows some 68kt winds in that area. Also the radar is directly east of Grapevine. That's a sign that there could have been 68kt winds at the surface. Watch out!

Ah, makes sense. Looking at it, the radar was just slightly east into Dallas county. And, he measured 72 mph gusts at his home in Southlake, so it was accurate.