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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Last night in Palestine a 64-year-old woman and her grandchildren, aged 6, 7, 8 and 9, all swept away and drown. :(

We measured 6.25" rain starting at 2 p.m. yesterday, ending this morning at 8:30 when we checked.

Hate to hear that. I had heard that there was flooding down there.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

I was about to head home from my son's daycare when the clouds lowered and started rotating so we headed back inside. It started doing widespread damage probably a mile east from where I was though some trees were down to my west also.

Suddenlink is down around here and I have seen an image of at least on cell tower down near here so it is making getting additional info more difficult.

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

What a crazy evening. I was in Big Sandy yesterday afternoon and watched as the main supercell approached the area. I left to go back towards Tyler when it looked like it was going to get too close. I found a decent spot with clearing to watch the storm just to my northwest for a few minutes. You could easily tell it was a beast.

 

Thoughts and prayers for those injured/killed by the storms.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Thoughts and prayers for those injured/killed by the storms.

 

This. Always hate to hear about the aftermath of these events. My stomach still sinks thinking about Dec 26th and driving through far eastern Garland to get on George Bush. It kind of hit everyone in the van at the same time when we were driving around pieces of roofs that had been tossed up on George Bush that people were probably just killed in that area.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Looks like maybe some elevated non-svr storms for DFW tomorrow evening and then a pretty boring week. Looking out at the long range tea leaves seems to indicate a return to more active weather starting b/w the 8 - 10th of May. Then the remainder of the month could be kind of wild. Obviously, climo plays a big role with May being the biggest tornado month for Texas:

 

may-avg-torn1991-2010.gif

 

 

But there are reasons beyond climo to think that we will see an uptick in activity after the 1st part of the month. The PNA and NAO both look to go negative after the 1st 10+/- days and the positive phase of each typically favors less tornadoes and that matches up with the anticipated calm start to the month:

 

ChVpoj8UkAAODVu.jpg

 

Then there is the GWO, the GEFS (I don't have a Euro GWO forecast, does anyone know of one out there?) has consistently been too fast at dropping the global AAM and sending the GWO through Phases 8/1/2. It might be believeable this time but is probably still too fast with signs pointing to convection finally shifting to the IO over the next couple of weeks.

 

ChVpoknVEAAnqmN.jpg

Then after a period of pretty inactive MJO the models are starting to show some signs that it might be on the move again. Phase 4 can favor above normal CAPE and shear across the southern plains in May. The MJO plays into the GWO but they aren't always necessarily synced up. It will be interesting to see how things play out. If the GEFS is once again too fast with the GWO and the models are correct in bringing the MJO into Phase 4 then there is a chance that could overlap. 

 

ChVpokBUUAE5xwf.jpg

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Latest info from NWS SHV on Friday's storms is 8 tornados in E TX. 3 EF-2s and 5 EF-1s. The EF-2s were the one which hit the Hibbett Sports in Lindale, a 27 mile long almost 2 mile wide multi vortex tornado which resulted in much damage on the eastern side of Lindale and moved NE into Upshur Co. And the last was near Alto. The EF-1s occurred late Friday night mostly in rural far E TX.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Looks like another round of sloppy dryline setups

 

hx6lut.png

 

And here is Mike V's new Index for that time:

 

ChkpwzaWUAAgIEg.jpg

 

Of the three days, Tuesday might be the one to watch. The ensembles move the EC trough out and actually have positive height anomalies across the NE for Tuesday. As always, timing and mesoscale questions will remain. And as noted above, the GEFS continues to be too aggressive with the GWO but it does look like convection will return to the IO. Some research suggest that the key will be for the MJO to establish and move into Phase 4 for there to be an uptick in May tornadoes (obviously this is cherry picking indices and there is much more at play).  There appears to still be some significant potential for the second half of May.   

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
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I tried hard yesterday but the only snow that I saw was well north up towards Lake Peak and the Ski Santa Fe area. It was surprisingly warm yesterday afternoon, even at 10,000'

ChlTNj7VAAATnkE.jpg

Looks like the recent snow has melted. I bet it is a sloppy mess above 10,000' especially in the interior of the range off of Highway 518. May and June can sure be muddy with wild swings from 65 degrees to 30 and snow.
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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Looks like the recent snow has melted. I bet it is a sloppy mess above 10,000' especially in the interior of the range off of Highway 518. May and June can sure be muddy with wild swings from 65 degrees to 30 and snow.

Yea, at the point of that pic I was already 6 miles in and at roughly 10,000 ft. From looking at some maps, I would've probably had another 8+ miles to the snow covered peaks that are about 12,000 ft.

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weatherextreme

weatherextreme

Posted
Posted

Steve McCauley's latest

 

 

 

 

 

Showers and a few non-severe rumblers will be making their away across north Texas on and off throughout the day Sunday. Coverage across north Texas will be about 40%.

Severe thunderstorms will then fire out to our west and move NE and could clip the western half of the Metroplex Sunday evening. But locations west and northwest of the DFW area are even more likely to see some fairly intense storms by late Sunday afternoon and evening with the highest threat across the western half of Oklahoma and Kansas.

Another batch of showers and storms will move into the Metroplex during the predawn hours on Monday and continue into early afternoon. Coverage is expected to be 60% with this batch!

And then things turn more interesting.

Very unstable air will be over the Metroplex and points east by Monday afternoon. The cap will be weak and breakable. BUT ... sinking air in the wake of the Monday morning/early afternoon rains will also be in place and will try to limit the number of storms that will try to fire on the dryline moving into the Metroplex late Monday afternoon.

IF the sinking air can completely dominate, it could be a quiet late afternoon/evening for the Metroplex. BUT ... if the dryline can overcome the subsidence (i.e., sinking air) - even if it is only in one or two places - then severe storms will pop quickly across the eastern half of the Metroplex.

Right now the data favor - but do not guarantee - the sinking air to prevail and thus shutting down most - though perhaps NOT all - severe storms locally.

We may end up getting one or two rogue storms on the dryline that go severe while the rest of the dryline remains silent. But remember, it is the rogue storm that needs to be watched for severe weather potential since it is not in competition with other storms in the vicinity. This means all the energy in the atmosphere goes into fueling one or two storms instead of an entire line of them. That's what makes isolated storms the ones to watch! They don't have to share the energy supply; they get it mostly to themselves.

So we will be watching to see if an isolated storm or two will be able to pop in the Metroplex by late Monday afternoon.

By Tuesday, the atmosphere becomes extremely unstable, and the dryline will once again be approaching. So once again we will have to see if the dryline can initiate powerful late afternoon thunderstorms in what should be a weakly capped but very volatile atmosphere.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Most of the long-range forecasts I've seen show the US hot in the Summer, though there is some debate as to whether the West will be as hot as the rest of the USA. Weatherbell has NM/TX average (which means hot) as the rest of the country fries, WT360 is similar. NOAA says heat favored everywhere, Larry Cosgrove seems to have the US warm from the continental divide east for just about the whole summer.

 

My theory for this year is July is due to be drier for the SW (we've had 10" of rain in ABQ the last three Julys) with August due to be wetter. We seem to be in the phase of the ocean cycles where August should transition from substantially drier than normal to average or even wetter than normal for a long time. I'm not sure if the flip is tied to the AMO or something similar, but it looks like it is if you take the AMO phases as:

 

~1895-1925 (cold)

~1926-1963 (warm)

~1964-1993 (cold)

~1994-2020? (warm)

 

yAgMwOJ.png

 

Our cold Spring looks like it will verify down here, even with March warm as April and May both look below normal now. The wetness hasn't really shown up for NM, AZ, or Southern CA.

 

I guess my general idea that if May is cold, and June sees the oceans rapidly cooling (offsetting temp gains from the sun) the monsoon is not going to be strong in July. So it will be hot. June may be fairly wet if the MJO cycles back to what it was doing in mid-April, but overall, I think we're due for an average June, hot/dry July, average/wet August, and then a warm/dry Sept. Something like 3.5 inches of rain from June 15 - Sept 30 instead of 4.3 inches which is average. I just can't see the three-year July rainfall (and corresponding cool temps) remaining at record or near levels over a 120 year period.

 

bYlmxt6.png

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Latest runs of the HRRR and HRRRx have storms firing out west and growing upscale into a MCS that moves into the DFW area this evening. There is a watch coming for the source area of this evenings potential MCS.

 

Ch8zQiyUgAAGTxY.jpg

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW TO N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081709Z - 081845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN BY 19Z AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE AGITATED CU FIELD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BIG BEND AREA NORTHEAST TO THE PERMIAN BASIN
JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING HAVING ALREADY ERODED CAPPING SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS
TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORMS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN DISCRETE
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARD BOWING SEGMENTS OR GROWING UPSCALE INTO
AN E/NEWD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
TRANSITION IN STORM MODE WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL TX
BY 19Z. STORMS MAY NOT INITIATE/MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MCD AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT...WATCH
ISSUANCE MAY BE LATER THAN FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016

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