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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Witness Protection Program

Witness Protection Program

Posted
Posted

Latest AFD indicates a quarter inch of rain for Buda with this storm. I am not clueless about southwestern weather and climatology. Typically this region will get a big event like october 30. But most of the time, Austin gets small rainstorms.

 

We have been bombarded with how big and bad this upper level low is for a solid WEEK. West Texas is going to get 18 inches of snow. North Texas will get 8 inches and poor Trinity river communities will get flooded again. East Texas will get their share, probably about 4 to 10 inches of rain.

 

South Central Texas will get about a quarter inch of rain. READ THE LATEST AFD. The clue to our misfortune is in the watches. Not one single watch for Hays or Travis Counties. Thats because we will get the least rain in this entire region. Yeah, we are getting this BIG BAD anomalous upper level low!!! And sure enough, Buda gets next to NOTHING from it! What a LAUGH!

 

I expect our first drizzle from this big bad upper level low about 1am tomorrow morning. Til then, we get teased by cloudy skies.

 

This place is a damn joke. I can hardly wait to get out of this godforsaken state come Tuesday. I love Washington DC with all my heart. I HATED being in Texas. These people down here still believe in 1950s era nonsense.

 

Northern Virginia is getting rain after rain. I bet by March 2016 south central Texas will have about a half inch of rain for the new year. This is one of the most accursed places on earth when it comes to rainfall. South Central Texas could get hit by the remnants of a Cat 5 hurricane and end up with a quarter inch of rain!

 

Next year will be a La Nina year, and Texas will end up very dry. I'll be in Virginia where we will at least get some rain, while Texas will end up like California with dried up lakes and people fighting for water.

 

Thank the universe it is only 76 more hours til I get to leave this dry nightmarish wasteland where we get very little rain!!!!

Washington DC is my true home. I never liked Texas, not even one little bit.

 

 

Seems stable.

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Msalgado

Msalgado

Posted
Posted

Latest AFD indicates a quarter inch of rain for Buda with this storm. I am not clueless about southwestern weather and climatology. Typically this region will get a big event like october 30. But most of the time, Austin gets small rainstorms.

 

We have been bombarded with how big and bad this upper level low is for a solid WEEK. West Texas is going to get 18 inches of snow. North Texas will get 8 inches and poor Trinity river communities will get flooded again. East Texas will get their share, probably about 4 to 10 inches of rain.

 

South Central Texas will get about a quarter inch of rain. READ THE LATEST AFD. The clue to our misfortune is in the watches. Not one single watch for Hays or Travis Counties. Thats because we will get the least rain in this entire region. Yeah, we are getting this BIG BAD anomalous upper level low!!! And sure enough, Buda gets next to NOTHING from it! What a LAUGH!

 

I expect our first drizzle from this big bad upper level low about 1am tomorrow morning. Til then, we get teased by cloudy skies.

 

This place is a damn joke. I can hardly wait to get out of this godforsaken state come Tuesday. I love Washington DC with all my heart. I HATED being in Texas. These people down here still believe in 1950s era nonsense.

 

Northern Virginia is getting rain after rain. I bet by March 2016 south central Texas will have about a half inch of rain for the new year. This is one of the most accursed places on earth when it comes to rainfall. South Central Texas could get hit by the remnants of a Cat 5 hurricane and end up with a quarter inch of rain!

 

Next year will be a La Nina year, and Texas will end up very dry. I'll be in Virginia where we will at least get some rain, while Texas will end up like California with dried up lakes and people fighting for water.

 

Thank the universe it is only 76 more hours til I get to leave this dry nightmarish wasteland where we get very little rain!!!!

Washington DC is my true home. I never liked Texas, not even one little bit.

 

lol......

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

I've had maybe a coating to 1.5" here. It's hard to tell, windy as hell. The dreaded snow hole has appeared over ABQ. Last I saw the airport got 0.3" as of 5 pm before it dried out from the winds. The NWS stubbornly sticks to 5-8" here, but its difficult for me to see us getting that much now.  Hoping for a few inches at least.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

Clovis NM has a blizzard with severe wind gusts (50kt+)

 

KCVS 270358Z AUTO 03038G50KT 1/4SM R22/0700FT FZFG +SN VV004 M06/M06 A2996 RMK AO2 PK WND 02057/01 SLP164 P0000 T10561063 $
KCVS 270357Z AUTO 03037G50KT 1/4SM R22/0700FT FZFG +SN VV004 M06/M06 A2996 RMK AO2 $
KCVS 270347Z AUTO 03040G54KT 1/4SM R22/0700FT FZFG SN VV005 M06/M06 A2995 RMK AO2 CIG 005V007 $
KCVS 270337Z AUTO 02040G52KT 1/4SM R22/0900FT FZFG SN VV007 M05/M07 A2994 RMK AO2 CIG 007V009

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Dec 2014-Dec 2015 will likely be the first time Albuquerque has had back to back Decembers with  >=1.00" precipitation since 1958-1959. Goes well with the whole AMO/PDO phases repeating every ~60 years. Currently at 0.98" in Dec 15 with more possible today and Tuesday.

 

As of right now, 2015 is the fifth snowiest calendar year in Albuquerque since 1931, with 1.4" at the airport from this storm...as opposed to the 5"-8" expected. City generally got 1-2" below 5300', 2-4" 5300'-5800', and 4"+ at 5800'.

 

My analogs had shown ~16-18" snow for Albuquerque this cold season. Seem to be well on our way now with 6.8" to date officially. Could snow a bit more today and then a bit on Tuesday. If you plot Oct-Dec snow in El Nino years against Oct-May snow, 6.8" through Dec (and we'll likely end up a touch higher yet) implies ~16" give or take 2-3 inches.

 

Lots of NM snow totals here - https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201512271623-KABQ-NOUS45-PNSABQ

 

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

 

Every mountain range in NM is normal or above normal now too. Elephant Butte is high enough now too that it makes me think NM will be able to store some water from there, we only get to keep some if it is over 20% full, that bottom 20% goes to TX.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Wow. There has been 1 to 6" of snow in Albuquerque.  That place is really protected from the easterly upslope wind, isn't it?

 

All the places in ABQ that got 4"+ were getting easterly up-slope help and are higher than most of the rest of the city. What kills Albuquerque is you can downslope from the east and/or from the west. Best storms here drag moisture from the SW into cold north winds, or come up/down the valley - i.e. due north/south. Sandia Peak/Crest (10,000 ft) got blasted with snow from the band coming from the NE...but it down-slopes into the valley.

 

The sunport is 5350 feet or something - it can get 6 inches of snow in a month fairly easily (once every three years or so), but it's pretty rare for the core of the city to get more than 4 inches of snow in a day, or even from one storm. Snowiest day in the core of the city is typically 2-3 inches in any given season, although it is more like 4 inches in an El Nino year.

 

By my count, since Oct 1931, Albuquerque has had exactly 63 calendar days (well...64 with Dec 13, 2015 included) with >=3" measured at the airport. Since Oct 1931, the airport has had 74 storms (i.e. a day or consecutive days of snow) with >=3" snow, not including the Dec 12-13, 2015 storm and possibly this storm (although the airport is at 1.4").

 

Albuquerque has never gone a cold season without snow since 1931-32, but because of the topography here it's a pattern of frequent light snow. The city averages nine calendar days with measurable (>=0.1") snow, and yet it only averages 9.6" for the cold season. That being said, there are micro-climates in the city, the low elevations in the valley tend to do well when it's very windy, the east side does better with pacific storms, the south side can do better with storms to our south, the north side can do well with storms to the north. Westside is rarely most favored, but also rarely the most disfavored. Where I am, we tend to do better with wet storm as its usually a tiny bit colder than the core of he city. The places in the city above 5800 feet or tend to get 18" snow if they are by the Sandias.

 

El Nino cold seasons are a bit better - we average 11 calendar days with measurable snow, and 13.5" for the cold season.

 

My basic idea with ABQ for snowfall is:

- Snow possible Oct 1 - May 10 

- Snow rare before Nov 10 or after Apr 20

- Dec favored for heavy snow (if AMO+), Jan favored (if AMO-)

- 13" of snow - once every three snow seasons

- 16" of snow - once every ten snow seasons

- 20" of snow - once every twenty snow seasons

- El Nino impact is mostly to favor snow Jan-Apr - little effect on Dec temps or snow

- City is notorious for relatively large (2"-6") sudden early spring snow storms (Feb 20 - Apr 20) 

- El Nino cold seasons average 7" snow in snowiest month 

- El Ninos (18/26, 69%) are vastly more likely to see a snowier than average cold season than non-El Ninos (17/58, 29%).

- El Nino favors cold, but not in winter - Nov & Mar are most favored, followed by Apr, Feb, May, Jan. Signal is cold springs.

- El Nino does favor wet winters, and in 26 El Ninos...the city has been "warm" (>=+2F above normal for DJF highs) only once.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Where is the best place to check where the low is currently located and its strength? Looking at the 18z nam it seem like the low keeps coming further east before it moves northward. Even the 500mb is more towards Paris than going right over DFW.

 

You can use water vapor loops and SPC meso analysis (it appears to be moving slower than what the 12z Euro had):

 

wv-animated.gif

 

500mb.gif?1451262168298

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