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John1122

March to Spring 2015? Models/Forecasts for March in the Valley.

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Models are getting to be pretty insistent on an Apps runner happening the first week of March, the 00z GFS just levels the western 2/3rd of Tennessee with heavy snow and really buries Nashville. This has been showing up quite a few runs in a row now on both the GFS and GEM.

 

The GEM looks like it has an icy solution on it's current run.

 

GFS snowfall on top. GEM precip/radar on bottom.

 
gfs_asnow_seus_28.png
 
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png

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The 0z Euro cuts that one through west TN and keeps the cold air out of reach.  It's ensemble mean and control look similar.  There are several members (12 or so out of 51) that do manage to lay down 2+ inches from Nashville to Knoxville during that period.

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Finally seeing an east side app runner on the GFS.Looks like a warm front lifts N and becomes stationary for a brief time then retreats back as a cold front followed by another reinforcing cold front on it's heels.Not much difference on the 5H,just the Euro is slower with everything.

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Don't look now, but the threat of a stalled front just southeast of here, with a wave and a LOT of moisture returning into the cold is there on the GFS today.

 

The snow has pretty much fallen by hour 138, but it expands south and east as shown on the 156 map.  Interesting, but certainly not biting at this point.

 

Edited to remove the map posted by Stovepipe.  

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I am probably more worried about flooding issues coming. With the ground as saturated as it is and projections of 2-3 inches of qpf coming, we might need our mud boots till June.

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Euro sure got colder.I shouldn't get excited (but i am..lol)i'm only setting my self up for a let down.2 degrees when you wake up next Fri for KBNA

We were already -4 with this last system but would be nice for a good old fashioned TN snow before Spring.

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The 12z Ukie doesn't have the cold air close enough for this one and keeps the snow well to the north and west.

Matches the GEM. So we have the GEM/UKIE against the Euro/GFS. In past years, I'd take my chances with that, but the Euro has been so bad this year at this range and the GFS, well, nevermind.

Will be interesting to see which direction this goes. I would lean toward something wintry for areas north and west of the TN Valley and mid south.

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Matches the GEM. So we have the GEM/UKIE against the Euro/GFS. In past years, I'd take my chances with that, but the Euro has been so bad this year at this range and the GFS, well, nevermind.

Will be interesting to see which direction this goes. I would lean toward something wintry for areas north and west of the TN Valley and mid south.

 

We'll have to see if any consistency emerges over the weekend.  The 0z run of the Ukie which was just barely getting in range at 144, looked pretty good, significant wobble at 12z  That was also a decent shift on the Euro, who knows how it'll flip around over the next few runs.  Maybe in a couple of days the models will have sniffed out the range of possibilities.  It's amazing to me that we even have another system to keep an eye on so soon after the latest shenanigans.  If this settles into a middle TN threat I vote to name the thread "The Jax Jackhammer" lol.

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