robPAwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Looks like 2-4 around Newark west. On 00z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Any thoughts on 00z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 12z Euro ensembles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 6z Para gives NYC, NENJ moderate snow at hr 78. 6z GFS just gives showers, and maybe a little snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 .75 qpf through CNJ, Long Island, Staten Island. Looks like the .75 qpf line nearly reaches NYC. Less and less qpf as you go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 .75 qpf through CNJ, Long Island, Staten Island. Looks like the .75 qpf line nearly reaches NYC. Less and less qpf as you go north. For 6z gfs para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 6z PARA . You always sort details later . This is why you just can`t give up on SE ridges in NEG EPO patterns . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 4 of the 12 06Z GFS ensembles resemble the Para to some extent with that 2nd wave developing...almost none did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 3-5" most of NJ on para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Paul was that 12z or 00z ensembles from euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 4 of the 12 06Z GFS ensembles resemble the Para to some extent with that 2nd wave developing...almost none did yesterday. This is the colder one . The models are just having a hard time figuring out which SW to foucs on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 6z Para gives NYC, NENJ moderate snow at hr 78. 6z GFS just gives showers, and maybe a little snow at the end. an inch or so at 78 BUT advisory level snows between 108 and 120 Tuesday late into Wednesday morning http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2014122606&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=641 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 It doesn't mean much at this range but the 09z SREF members focus this event over the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Very little change so far on the 12z GFS OP through 51 hours. The only difference I can see is that the SE ridge is a tick stronger (further north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Any thoughts on 00z euro?looks like a thin stripe of advisory snows in cnj. wetter than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Ends up a bit more organized and a bit wetter this run. Steady precip probably makes it up to about I-80, maybe a touch further North. The GFS OP is nearly completely shearing out the vorticy. Most areas are 0.25"+ liquid until you get into Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 GFS finally catching up to other guidance...looks like some light snow accums in C or N NJ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 PGFS is a bit wetter with the system for Sunday night and no longer develops the second system for Monday. Monday went from several inches of snow to sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 PGFS is a bit wetter with the system for Sunday night and no longer develops the second system for Monday. Monday went from several inches of snow to sunny skies. doesn't look like too much to get excited about....maybe an inch or two somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 12z PGFS is also further offshore with the system for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 doesn't look like too much to get excited about....maybe an inch or two somewhere? We lost the two snowiest models, the GGEM at 00z and the PGFS at 12z. I'll wait to see the Euro before throwing in the towel but we certainly have a lot of work to do to get accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I see no storm at all still on the GFS. Looks like a big bag of nothing. What in the heck are people looking at exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I see no storm at all still on the GFS. Looks like a big bag of nothing. What in the heck are people looking at exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 doesn't look like too much to get excited about....maybe an inch or two somewhere? An inch would be a blessing right now. I think it's possible if the second wave amplifies, which may happen as the SE ridge tries to flex its strength. The 12z gfs op subtly shows this happening we'll have to watch how this trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Another run, another solution, these models really mess with my brain. I'm not throwing the towel yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 No help from the 12z GGEM, it's more sheared out and weaker. It does give us a chance at a quick burst early Tuesday morning which 00z did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 An inch would be a blessing right now. I think it's possible if the second wave amplifies, which may happen as the SE ridge tries to flex its strength. The 12z gfs op subtly shows this happening we'll have to watch how this trends. This is starting to remind of some other snowless winters, getting an inch is like pulling teeth.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 12Z Euro is South, game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 To be exact, total QPF at KNYC through 144hrs on the high res 12z ECMWF was barely 0.10". It was less than that in Queens, Staten Island and Brooklyn. On the 00z run it was close to 0.30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.