bluewave Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 This was one heck of a WAR pattern for December. The JMA monthly forecast had it back in late November. But notice that it was too weak for what verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Latest GFSx is still at a positive anomaly of +2.9degs. over next 7 days but instead of front end problems we now have backloaded problems as storm goes to our west 1/3,4,5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 NYC at +3.0 for December with today and tomorrow adding positive departure days before two slightly negative departure days to end the month. NYC is on track for its 10th 40 degree December since 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/1496903-will-nyc-end-winter-2011-2012-a.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 If December ends up mild chances of an above average snow season is slim...There have not been many above average snowfall years when December was much milder than usual....This December could end up milder than average.....All we need is one HECS to make this winter good...There is still time for that but...If it ends up averaging over 40.0 the chances for a snowy winter is low...Years with December averaging 40.0 or higher and seasonal snowfall..Largest snowfall...season...snowfall...largest snowfall...1889-90...24.3".....6.0" Dec/Mar1891-92...25.4".....8.0" March1923-24...27.5".....8.5" April1931-32.....5.3".....2.0" November1953-54...15.8".....7.8" January1956-57...21.9".....6.4" February1957-58...44.7"...11.8" March1965-66...21.4".....6.8" January1971-72...22.9".....5.7" February1979-80...12.8".....4.6" March1982-83...27.2"...17.6" February1984-85...24.1".....5.7" February1990-91...24.9".....8.9" February1994-95...11.8"...10.8" February1996-97...10.0".....3.5" January1998-99...12.7".....4.5" March1999-00...16.3".....5.5" January2001-02.....3.5".....3.0" January2006-07...12.4".....5.5" March2011-12.....7.4".....4.3" January 2012-13...26.1"...11.4" February...average...19.0".....7.0"The average snowfall is almost ten inches below the long term average...7" less than the 30 year normals...Average big snow is almost 7"...That's below also...Only four of the 21 had a snowfall 10" or more...Only one had above the long term seasonal average...57-58...five were over 25"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 If it ends up averaging over 40.0 the chances for a snowy winter is low... I don't know if we can sort of conclusively say "if the temperature averages over 40 F in December, the *chances* for a snowy winter are low"...because I don't really think the weather has a memory or is governed by the past...I think I would phrase it "historically speaking, in years when December had an average temperature over 40 F, the frequency of the winter ending up snowy was extremely low." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 NYC finished December at 40.5 and +3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I don't know if we can sort of conclusively say "if the temperature averages over 40 F in December, the *chances* for a snowy winter are low"...because I don't really think the weather has a memory or is governed by the past...I think I would phrase it "historically speaking, in years when December had an average temperature over 40 F, the frequency of the winter ending up snowy was extremely low." I think the actual correlation is with the total amount of snow as of NY'sD. This is expected to be low if Dec. was a +40.0 month, so maybe both connections have predicative power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I think the actual correlation is with the total amount of snow as of NY'sD. This is expected to be low if Dec. was a +40.0 month, so maybe both connections have predicative power. It seems like most years the winter trend becomes established in December and carries through to the end of the winter. That would be the predictive power of a warm and snowless December when it follows the majority of the years with a similar precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It seems like most years the winter trend becomes established in December and carries through to the end of the winter. That would be the predictive power of a warm and snowless December when it follows the majority of the years with a similar precedent. December had a minimum of 24...November had a minimum of 22...only one other year on record had a minimum higher in December... year...Nov...Dec... 2014...22...24 1929...12...13 1905...20...20 1891...14...14 1967...20...20 1974...26...26 1984...25...25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 December had a minimum of 24...November had a minimum of 22...only one other year on record had a minimum higher in December... year...Nov...Dec... 2014...22...24 1929...12...13 1905...20...20 1891...14...14 1967...20...20 1974...26...26 1984...25...25 That's really rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 From 1990 to 2014 December is running almost 1.5 degrees above the 1981-2010 average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 From 1990 to 2014 December is running almost 1.5 degrees above the 1981-2010 average The December WAR pattern since 1990 has been king with 2014 coming in as strong as we have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The period between Christmas & New Years has not yielded a great deal of snow in NYC traditionally...Boxing Day, 2002, 12/30/2000, and Dec 26, 1947 nonwithstanding. Though the 12/25 - 12/31 stretch tends to be snowier than the climatologically wretched 1/1 - 1/6 period...it never seems to snow then...I doubt there have been more than a couple 6 inch snowfalls in Central Park the first 6 days of January in the last 100 years. These seemingly unshakeable truisms seem to be coming to pass yet again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 These seemingly unshakeable truisms seem to be coming to pass yet again... I still recall a debate with a former member (a met, no less) who told me that climatology is essentially meaningless...and that he would treat a computer forecast printing out 2 feet of snow for Norfolk, Virginia with the same amount of respect he would give a forecast from the same model printing out 2 feet of snow for Worcester, Massachusetts 72 hours prior to the onset of the event. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 NYC finished December at 40.5 and +3. 38.8 degrees here and +3.0 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 38.8 degrees here and +3.0 also. December 2014 Site: avg temp (dep) / precip / snow NYC: 40.5 (+3.0) / 6.04 / 1.0 EWR: 40.1 (+3.5) / 4.91 / 0.3 LGA: 40.5 ((+2.3) / 6.11 / 1.3 JFK: 41.4 (+3.7) / 7.04 / 0.3 TTN: 39.0 (+3.6) / 4.14 / 0.2 PHL: 41.1 (+3.7) / 3.27 / 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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