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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY

705 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015

...Forecast Update...

Issued at 700 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015

Nothing has changed as far as the complexity of this winter system

is concerned. Forecast soundings still waffle around the freezing

line at various times and depths. No one particular model is

handling the current surface temperatures across the region, so what

they have aloft is equally in question.  One thing we do know is a

low-level jet will crank up across the region the rest of the night,

with a limit to how far north it can advance based on the position

of an 850mb trough swinging in.  Should the limit be the I-64

corridor, we could see a longer period of snow/fzra in that

vicinity, with more snow to the north then in the current forecast.

Have trended the forecast this way, with higher totals in the north.

Will continue to make updates with QPF trends and model temp trends

as conditions warrant through the night.

Interesting, when I compared obs at 0z to GFS looked very close.  Of course I was looking at the SPC meso site with fewer station and they probably spent more time than me lol.  But hey, comparing 0z obs to current temps are DEFINITELY colder than the 12z GFS forecast. :snowing:

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Anyone still awake? DT just updated w/ his last call map & mentioned the north trend contuiung. What could he be looking at? NAM went south.

Sounds like some wish-casting or something to me.  Perhaps the thermals are just trending colder over Ohio, idk but the 0z GFS and latest RAP are definitely lining up better with the NAM.  I'm thinking earlier NAM thermals but perhaps toned down QPF the way to go.

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Sounds like some wish-casting or something to me. Perhaps the thermals are just trending colder over Ohio, idk but the 0z GFS and latest RAP are definitely lining up better with the NAM. I'm thinking earlier NAM thermals but perhaps toned down QPF the way to go.

KIND update

"WITH SYSTEM STILL DEVELOPING AM HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES

TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL

DATA AS WELL AS 00Z NAM SHIFT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF SNOW SOUTH.

THIS IS LIKELY DUE IN PART TO FOCUS OF 850 JET BEING TO THE SOUTH OF

THE AREA AND BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BEING TO THE SOUTH.

THUS NUDGED AMOUNTS DOWN CENTRAL AND NUDGED UP A BIT IN THE

SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME GETTING IN.

STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES WHERE BANDED PRECIPITATION

SETS UP."

What's your thoughts Mike?

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Dilly,

 

Getting reports from ILN that aircraft landing at SDF reporting temps aloft warmer than all models forecast (although descent from south to north may be partially atttributed to that).  HOWEVER, LOU/LEX already reporting ZR.  In addition, getting quite a few reports from NKY and the west side of Cincy that initial precip is falling as freezing rain.

 

I think we should cool the column back down for snow once heavier precip arrives, but this makes me hesitant to make changes to my going forecast of 4-7.  (I could probably go 5-8 if I really wanted to nit-pick).  But I'm a little concerned that there is a thin layer of warm air that models are missing.  Do we fix it overnight with higher precip rates?  Probably.  But could it come back to bite us later on when the actual surface low arrives?  Quite possible.

 

Also, with NAM QPF now down to 0.66" at CMH (in line with GFS), I still feel ok about 4-7 there.  Again, 5-8 might be best but not going to re-draw my map as I'll probably be turning in for bed soon LOL.

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Dilly,

Getting reports from ILN that aircraft landing at SDF reporting temps aloft warmer than all models forecast (although descent from south to north may be partially atttributed to that). HOWEVER, LOU/LEX already reporting ZR. In addition, getting quite a few reports from NKY and the west side of Cincy that initial precip is falling as freezing rain.

I think we should cool the column back down for snow once heavier precip arrives, but this makes me hesitant to make changes to my going forecast of 4-7. (I could probably go 5-8 if I really wanted to nit-pick). But I'm a little concerned that there is a thin layer of warm air that models are missing. Do we fix it overnight with higher precip rates? Probably. But could it come back to bite us later on when the actual surface low arrives? Quite possible.

Also, with NAM QPF now down to 0.66" at CMH (in line with GFS), I still feel ok about 4-7 there. Again, 5-8 might be best but not going to re-draw my map as I'll probably be turning in for bed soon LOL.

Thanks buddy. I'm waiting on the storm. I'm confident up here won't switch. But Im watching to keep my followers updated. I'm sticking with my 6-8 up here. But we will see.

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Seem to be getting a ton of lift in the heavy bands down near Cincinnati. 6z,NAM drastically reducing qpf across i70 in ohio

 

At least up here 50 miles north of I70 we're a lot colder than forecast.  We should be 24 we're at 15. Maybe that cold dry air is taking it's sweet time.  Several bands on radar have tried to move North only to disappear.  There's supposedly another 12 hours or so left with this so maybe the column will still saturate but I think the dry air has already eaten into an inch or two of forecast accumulations up this way.

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