wxdudemike Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i wonder what the euro was spitting out for Chicago 24 hours out before the 20" SB storm. Pretty sure it was under done. I think the euro usually is in the short term. Euro isn't too far from the GFS in total precip for CMH. I would lean towards the lower side because the NAM is higher and its higher forecasts with these southern storms have not panned out recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think that is a reasonable call. BTW, Ghanal going w/ 2-4. Should have seen ganahl freaking out over the last storm. He couldn't comprehend how southern OH could get more snow than northern OH. He actually said, this is a very unusual storm where the southern part will get more than the north. Rare? that happens all the time, it's called a storm that tracks south. Apparently he doesn't have any graphics other than that one with a line cutting the state in half with 'snow' to the nw and 'rain' to se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro isn't too far from the GFS in total precip for CMH. I would lean towards the lower side because the NAM is higher and its higher forecasts with these southern storms have not panned out recently. i need to buy you some weenie goggles... kiljoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i wonder what the euro was spitting out for Chicago 24 hours out before the 20" SB storm. Pretty sure it was under done. I think the euro usually is in the short term. Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 yea I guess they did pretty well...a little short though. I stopped paying attention to that one, once the trend became clear for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 yea I guess they did pretty well...a little short though. I stopped paying attention to that one, once the trend became clear for us. Well for some reason I thought the mix line made it to near toledo.. totals were drastically different from there south than forecast. Could be wrong. P.S. Ganahl is an idiot. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Pit going with 1-3" for me with advisories to the south. Are these nws offices seeing something we arent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Pit going with 1-3" for me with advisories to the south. Are these nws offices seeing something we arent?NWS & Ganahl. LolIndy just went WSW for 4-8. ILN should be updating at like 7 PM probably. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS & Ganahl. Lol Indy just went WSW for 4-8. ILN should be updating at like 7 PM probably. Lol Well what's odd is on my point forecast Pitt going all snow for me but only 1-3" ILN has you guys getting to near 40° but here is my point forecast This Afternoon Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 15. Wind chill values as low as zero. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as zero. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Snow. High near 34. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 25. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well what's odd is on my point forecast Pitt going all snow for me but only 1-3" ILN has you guys getting to near 40° but here is my point forecast This Afternoon Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 15. Wind chill values as low as zero. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as zero. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Snow. High near 34. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 25. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. nothing is really updated yet... seriously doubt they stick with 1-3" No model is even close to that conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS & Ganahl. Lol Indy just went WSW for 4-8. ILN should be updating at like 7 PM probably. Lol sometimes i think they coordinate with offices all over, including ones located in pacific standard time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 nothing is really updated yet... seriously doubt they stick with 1-3" No model is even close to that conservative. Still a bit concerned with the 3 LR models showing 4-6 for i70. Any mixing would definitely drop that way down. I've actually held off on updating my map due to this. I have 6-8 across i70 and considering lowering it based on GFS GGEM AND EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 nothing is really updated yet... seriously doubt they stick with 1-3" No model is even close to that conservative. I love my location. I'm now under a WSW with 4-8 and 10 miles N of me is a HWO for 1-2 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Still a bit concerned with the 3 LR models showing 4-6 for i70. Any mixing would definitely drop that way down. I've actually held off on updating my map due to this. I have 6-8 across i70 and considering lowering it based on GFS GGEM AND EURO.That is definitely red flag. The only thing going for us is that NAM was 1st to sniff out the mighty SB Storm. Oh & don't forget the Ukie. I thnk it was more 6-8 for this upcoming one, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That is definitely red flag. The only thing going for us is that NAM was 1st to sniff out the mighty SB Storm. Oh & don't forget the Ukie. I thnk it was more 6-8 for this upcoming one, no? Yea. It's like good vs evil. Do you stay where we are at and have it all snow or do you roll the dice and hope for a 50 mile shift north to get into the heaviest stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea. It's like good vs evil. Do you stay where we are at and have it all snow or do you roll the dice and hope for a 50 mile shift north to get into the heaviest stuff.I guess we go big or go home so let's get that bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i need to buy you some weenie goggles... kiljoy No need to make me a bigger :weenie: I'm rooting for the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea. It's like good vs evil. Do you stay where we are at and have it all snow or do you roll the dice and hope for a 50 mile shift north to get into the heaviest stuff. I really doubt mixing is an issue anywhere from I-70 north, (at least in terms of hurting snowfall totals). if you must find a reason to worry, I'd worry about just a general trend towards drier in the cold sector. That doesn't mean I think that's going to happen, just think it's a more likely concern than mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I really doubt mixing is an issue anywhere from I-70 north, (at least in terms of hurting snowfall totals). if you must find a reason to worry, I'd worry about just a general trend towards drier in the cold sector. That doesn't mean I think that's going to happen, just think it's a more likely concern than mixing. You mis-read. I mean do we stay where we are as all snow and get the 4-6 the long rangers are showing or root for a small shift north and get the heavy precip but risk mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 You mis-read. I mean do we stay where we are as all snow and get the 4-6 the long rangers are showing or root for a small shift north and get the heavy precip but risk mixing. I would take the 4-6 over mixing..unless we get front end dumped on then mix just for a bit after 8 or more inches!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 pit just put a bunch of eastern OH counties under warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Pit just issued WSW for eastern portions of Ohio..now i am surrounded!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ...ILN still coordinating....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ...ILN still coordinating.......Yep, just 4 more hours. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Should have seen ganahl freaking out over the last storm. He couldn't comprehend how southern OH could get more snow than northern OH. He actually said, this is a very unusual storm where the southern part will get more than the north. Rare? that happens all the time, it's called a storm that tracks south. Apparently he doesn't have any graphics other than that one with a line cutting the state in half with 'snow' to the nw and 'rain' to se. Southern Ohio got more snow than northern Ohio literally a few days ago. I don't think Ganahl has been great since December 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RLX is the office still coordinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep, just 4 more hours. Lol The zones are usually released long before the discussion, so we should see the zones out before 4:30... the AFD? Maybe halfway through the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Pit just issued WSW for eastern portions of Ohio..now i am surrounded!! They're going with 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Warning issued for most of I-70 and north for 5-8". URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH303 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015INZ050-058-059-OHZ042-045-046-051>056-060>062-210415-/O.UPG.KILN.WW.Y.0011.150221T0300Z-150222T0500Z//O.EXB.KILN.WS.W.0004.150221T0300Z-150222T0000Z/WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-DARKE-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...GREENVILLE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA303 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PMEST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FORM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. So they still believe it will change to rain tomorrow afternoon, but maybe not before a good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 They're going with 4-7" That could be a bit conservative..but they can update if need be!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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