WxBlue Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I like the forecast BTW, I could certainly see it getting colder for the low tomorrow morning, but I'm sort of hedging my bets. If it stays a bit warmer, my low tomorrow could work out while my low tonight likely won't. If it gets colder, my low tonight will work out, but my low tomorrow will be too high (still on the right side of consensus in that case, though). Even so, I think 5-7 is about where I'd like to be for the low regardless of any "hedging". I really like 24-25. On most days except today (when we had a pre-"frontal" warm spike up a degree), the high has generally been a degree or so below the USLs. Bingo on the high That was my thinking as well. I actually thought about going lower to like 5-6, but I felt pretty good about 7 so I stayed there especially since I'm still trying to get back above consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 26/7/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Nailed the low which helped, but with the temp up to 16 now I'm thinking they'll hit 24 or 25. I guess this is why you don't do 10 points better than consensus in a day very often, unless you're forecasting for Abilene evidently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I just looked back at every city I ever forecasted for in this competition and this is by far the worst city I've ever forecasted for. I went from best in school to worst (I'm literally the worst of anyone in my school that has forecasted everyday). I just can't figure this city out. I can't wait to drop this one and move on. Good luck to everyone else. I can't wait to get back into this next semester. The first city is Phoenix, AZ which is ironic that that's the first city since over break a lot of people will be at the National AMS conference there including me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 The first city is Phoenix, AZ which is ironic that that's the first city since over break a lot of people will be at the National AMS conference there including me It seems like they plan that. I remember forecasting for Atlanta while in Atlanta. Sad I won't make it to AMS this year though! Excited for the next site. Somehow I'm doing better here than I did at Caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 It seems like they plan that. I remember forecasting for Atlanta while in Atlanta. Sad I won't make it to AMS this year though! Excited for the next site. Somehow I'm doing better here than I did at Caribou. I guess to each his own when it comes to forecasting certain cities. My Achilles heel is apparently the Great Lakes region. I got hammered in Grand Rapids last year too. Surprisingly I did incredible in Caribou. Hopefully it gets better from here. That's a shame you can't make it to AMS this year. I look forward to meeting a lot of people and hopefully some of you on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 It seems like they plan that. I remember forecasting for Atlanta while in Atlanta. Sad I won't make it to AMS this year though! Excited for the next site. Somehow I'm doing better here than I did at Caribou. I guess to each his own when it comes to forecasting certain cities. My Achilles heel is apparently the Great Lakes region. I got hammered in Grand Rapids last year too. Surprisingly I did incredible in Caribou. Hopefully it gets better from here. That's a shame you can't make it to AMS this year. I look forward to meeting a lot of people and hopefully some of you on here. Atlanta was awesome last year, that's for sure. Even though I only stayed during the weekend, I had a blast at my first AMS conference Sadly, I won't be attending Phoenix, but I'm hopeful to go in 2016 in New Orleans or 2017 in Seattle. And I could say the same for New England region. I can never figure out that region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 30/5/19/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 31/9/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 30/8/15/0. If tomorrow works out on everything, I will gain at least 500 spots in the past two days and into above-consensus zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 32/7/18/0 It gave me pause when they stayed at 19F this hour, especially since the HRRR doesn't look that cold, but CYAM across the river was 10F at 23z, so there's very cold air just across the boarder, and I'm guessing that the winds will go more northerly for a time tonight and they'll advect that air in...the Euro, RAP and MET seem to agree. I'm worried I may be a little warm on the high tomorrow, but I think they'll hit 31 at least (hopefully). The NAM has 25-30 knots at the top of the BL tomorrow afternoon so I'm hoping that can mix down. I can pass consensus tomorrow if the low/wind work out half decently, so I'm definitely hoping to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 32/7/18/0 It gave me pause when they stayed at 19F this hour, especially since the HRRR doesn't look that cold, but CYAM across the river was 10F at 23z, so there's very cold air just across the boarder, and I'm guessing that the winds will go more northerly for a time tonight and they'll advect that air in...the Euro, RAP and MET seem to agree. I'm worried I may be a little warm on the high tomorrow, but I think they'll hit 31 at least (hopefully). The NAM has 25-30 knots at the top of the BL tomorrow afternoon so I'm hoping that can mix down. I can pass consensus tomorrow if the low/wind work out half decently, so I'm definitely hoping to do that. My concern is that the winds might not go more northerly tonight. The models that have the northerly winds overnight had them northerly all day today, too (except maybe the Euro, but it had northerly by 00z). Plus with more friction from a shallower boundary layer, the winds would only want to tend towards a more westerly direction, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 32/7/18/0 It gave me pause when they stayed at 19F this hour, especially since the HRRR doesn't look that cold, but CYAM across the river was 10F at 23z, so there's very cold air just across the boarder, and I'm guessing that the winds will go more northerly for a time tonight and they'll advect that air in...the Euro, RAP and MET seem to agree. I'm worried I may be a little warm on the high tomorrow, but I think they'll hit 31 at least (hopefully). The NAM has 25-30 knots at the top of the BL tomorrow afternoon so I'm hoping that can mix down. I can pass consensus tomorrow if the low/wind work out half decently, so I'm definitely hoping to do that. My concern is that the winds might not go more northerly tonight. The models that have the northerly winds overnight had them northerly all day today, too (except maybe the Euro, but it had northerly by 00z). Plus with more friction from a shallower boundary layer, the winds would only want to tend towards a more westerly direction, I would think. Exactly... I went much higher as a result. The HRRR suggests the winds will actually increase a little bit tonight out of the northwest. Since this is pretty much my throwaway city at this point, I decided to go bold as a last ditch effort to get well ahead of consensus. I'll probably find out if I'm doomed in the next few hours if the winds die down. 32/15/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 It's such a tough call with a Great Lake close enough to influence thier temps/winds but not close enough to overwhelm everything else. I have day 3 (I think) in the back of my mind when I thought they'd stay mixed and hang onto NW winds all night, but the winds for some reason went east and they completely lost their lake influence and really dropped. The HRRR handled that well (and I was shocked) so we'll see if it has the right idea tonight with NW winds hanging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 It's such a tough call with a Great Lake close enough to influence thier temps/winds but not close enough to overwhelm everything else. I have day 3 (I think) in the back of my mind when I thought they'd stay mixed and hang onto NW winds all night, but the winds for some reason went east and they completely lost their lake influence and really dropped. The HRRR handled that well (and I was shocked) so we'll see if it has the right idea tonight with NW winds hanging on. I thought the easterlies that night were due in large part to convergence into LES bands, which we won't have tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I thought the easterlies that night were due in large part to convergence into LES bands, which we won't have tonight. They definitely were (and I'm not expecting easterlies tonight at all), although I think it was the much colder air over Canada vs over the rest of the UP that helped shift the convergence and LES west of them. Winds are still 320 now, so no northerly shift yet. I think a few hours of either nearly calm or more northerly winds can do the trick, but we'll see, I'm not optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 They definitely were (and I'm not expecting easterlies tonight at all), although I think it was the much colder air over Canada vs over the rest of the UP that helped shift the convergence and LES west of them. Winds are still 320 now, so no northerly shift yet. I think a few hours of either nearly calm or more northerly winds can do the trick, but we'll see, I'm not optimistic. And I'm not convinced it WON'T happen, just sharing my own reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 And I'm not convinced it WON'T happen, just sharing my own reasoning. Haha, I mean we are only 2F off on the low. CYAM dropped 5F last hour from 14 to 9, and have northerly winds at 2 knots. It's amazing how much a difference such a short distance has made between the two sites on several occasions. But I think them going northerly is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 33/14/20 Totally overestimated the NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Back up to 19. Not good sign for those in cold camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 33/14/20 Totally overestimated the NW flow. NW winds just came up last hour and the temp has spiked back up to 19... don't give up yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 NW winds just came up last hour and the temp has spiked back up to 19... don't give up yet! If tonight pans out for you, that would be another great call on your part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 If tonight pans out for you, that would be another great call on your part. I knew I shouldn't have said anything! Down to 15oF despite the winds... if I had to guess we will probably still end up in the 10-12oF range unless the winds can pick up some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I knew I shouldn't have said anything! Down to 15oF despite the winds... if I had to guess we will probably still end up in the 10-12oF range unless the winds can pick up some more.Up to 17F now although my guess is they'll be bouncing around all night with a very slow downward progression on average. I can buy 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Calm winds now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Calm winds now And a nice drop to 13 at 8z with dew point at 1. Should be interesting in the next few hours... EDIT: and went back up to 19 the next hour -___- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 29/10/18/0.......glad to see that I wasn't the only one who went well above the consensus with the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 NW winds just came up last hour and the temp has spiked back up to 19... don't give up yet! It ended up working out okay for us. The calm wind did us in a bit but certainly not as bad as it could've been. It turns out it's the winds I really messed up lol. The 05z RAP showed 20 kts at 90 feet AGL for this time period. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 up to 31 as of 12 est, looks like the warmer camp doing better for highs too with 33-35 seeming likely unless winds turn around to the north which seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Wow, up to 34F. Wind up to 12kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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