MillvilleWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well, this became my drop city overnight with that low. I need to really step my game up in order to climb back above national, although I can figure out this place on how to forecast. Looks like they have a good system now, so hopefully that helps. How's everyone else looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well, this became my drop city overnight with that low. I need to really step my game up in order to climb back above national, although I can figure out this place on how to forecast. Looks like they have a good system now, so hopefully that helps. How's everyone else looking? Overall precipitation, Day 2 wind, and today's low is really hurting me. Consensus is almost into Top 100, so this is likely a bad city for many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The consensus could well end up top 50 after today, so yeah. This probably won't be my drop, but I'll need a score of -2 to -3 to hold on to the top cumulative score, which will be hard unless there's more spread next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Like everyone else I'm just hanging in there, precipitation in particular is killing me so far. Went 24/14/19/0 for today. I had a strong feeling the low was going low but had trouble completely ignoring the USL... Glad some of you have you have done well enough for this to be your drop city. I used mine up already so gotta finish strong to maintain edge of tourney territory heading into next semester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 What in the hell is wrong with this place? Even when it isn't snowing, it still records precip. It definitely didn't just snow 0.05" in the past hour because Radar was clear over them during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Day 3 should be 0.1" not 0.15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I hate this city. I hate it so much. Hopefully the next 5 days are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 As much as I want to complain about this city, I'm likely somewhere inside Top 250 going into Day 4. That, by itself, is a personal victory after disaster of Day 2. With 5 days to go, I'm nowhere close to folding on this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 As much as I want to complain about this city, I'm likely somewhere inside Top 250 going into Day 4. That, by itself, is a personal victory after disaster of Day 2. With 5 days to go, I'm nowhere close to folding on this city. Might need to be in the top 100 to be above National Consensus after next week. Just think about that. You do well, but not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 What in the hell is wrong with this place? Even when it isn't snowing, it still records precip. It definitely didn't just snow 0.05" in the past hour because Radar was clear over them during that time. Day 3 should be 0.1" not 0.15". They'll probably do the liquid equivalent measurement again anyway and make the METAR amounts moot. They still have the high on day 1 and the wind on day 2 wrong (should be 26F and 22kts, respectively). Both of those hurt my position. Just sent an email about those errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 At this point I'd need to rip off 2 or 3 really good forecasts and do ok the other remaining forecasts to maybe get above consensus. Not insurmountable but it'll be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 They'll probably do the liquid equivalent measurement again anyway and make the METAR amounts moot. They still have the high on day 1 and the wind on day 2 wrong (should be 26F and 22kts, respectively). Both of those hurt my position. Just sent an email about those errors. But you agree that the 0.05" that hour was bogus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Phil is killing it here. Other than precip, the HRRR has really propelled him to the front. I guess I should start giving it more credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 But you agree that the 0.05" that hour was bogus? Of course, though it could have been delayed melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 They'll probably do the liquid equivalent measurement again anyway and make the METAR amounts moot. They still have the high on day 1 and the wind on day 2 wrong (should be 26F and 22kts, respectively). Both of those hurt my position. Just sent an email about those errors. Was about to send an email about those errors. Could you provide feedback for what you find out? I don't want to bombard Jeff with too many emails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Was about to send an email about those errors. Could you provide feedback for what you find out? I don't want to bombard Jeff with too many emails. I never got any response to my email on Monday about the (then) erroneous wind verifications on the climo... in this case, even if I don't get a response, as long as it's fixed that's what matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I never got any response to my email on Monday about the (then) erroneous wind verifications on the climo... in this case, even if I don't get a response, as long as it's fixed that's what matters. It just seems like the errors are just piling up in this city lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 At least we know what's going on with the high and winds now (after some of us stepped on Day 2 mine). Low and precip are still challenging to say at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I never got any response to my email on Monday about the (then) erroneous wind verifications on the climo... in this case, even if I don't get a response, as long as it's fixed that's what matters. Gotcha. Well if it isn't fixed by this weekend I'll check in. And agreed about the response part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well I guess they got 6.4" today with 0.18" of liquid in that snow. Whoops. I guess that erroneous 0.05" makes no difference now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 a bit late to the game, but really like you HRRR tools Phil. Certainly factoring them in to my forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Phil is killing it here. Other than precip, winds, and high temp, the HRRR has really propelled him to the front. I guess I should start giving it more credit. FYP a bit late to the game, but really like you HRRR tools Phil. Certainly factoring them in to my forecasts. Thanks! I do want to mention that the old sounding link that I posted earlier is no longer working because the NCAR 3D hrrr files I have been using haven't updated since December 2nd... try this link which uses the more stable NCEP 3D hrrr files. In the future when I have more time I'll probably put together a dedicated webpage that will house all the graphics. KANJ Forecast Sounding using NCEP-HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 31/17/12/0.01 The high is still running cool, so I went with that number. The low? I have no idea except dewpoint is low and HRRR is trending toward mid-10s with most high-res in upper-10s. I think we can get 12 knots somewhere there, but I could get burned there. Also got 0.01 because I've no idea once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 32/15/11/0.01" Ride the HRRR train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I went with 33/16/12/0 This was a quick forecast and I really don't have any idea any more. They have a window this evening if they can get some breaks in the clouds to cool before the winds pick up as we head towards 6z. The HRRR is really cold again. It was too cold last night but had the right idea at least, so we'll see. Went a bit aggressive on the high and wind but I don't "think" either is unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 32/18/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Agreed on the "thanks" Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 32/22/12/0.02. Taking risks already because Nat Con seems to be running away with it. I didn't see the HRRR that cold tonight on the soundings from Phil's page at least like past days. Probably like around -6C the coldest, so I feel ok with my gutsy low since last time in southerly flow and cloudiness overnight models were too cold for the morning. Hopefully it actually works for once this time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 At least I can afford to take risks because 0.12 was my drop before KANJ. I don't think any of us got a clue on lows with this crazy city, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 HRRR is not preforming well with respect to reality right now... HRRR analysis has KANJ in the mid teens right now, while in reality the ASOS is sitting at 22 as of 05 UTC... d'oh. Looks like the primary problem is extra cloud cover that wasn't well handled by even the higher resolution guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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