OHweather Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 They will eventually rebound, but I think they'll loose a couple more degrees first. You can see the lake effect over Lakes Michigan/Huron abruptly changing it's orientation as winds flip from NW to S...pretty cool IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Still 10F at 6z and still overcast skies. Winds are calm although that shouldn't last more than another hour or two. I still don't trust them not to loose another 2 degrees and end up with a low of like 8, but I'm feeling a bit better about my 9F now. It's hard to tell on satellite due to the snow pack on land giving off really cold IR readings, but it looks like clouds off of Lake Huron are either there now or should be there soon...so we'll see. MCD has jumped 7 degrees in the last hour, while CIU in between is still falling right now (down to 5F). Sites farther west are also beginning to warm. Welcome to the Great Lakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Still 10F at 6z and still overcast skies. Winds are calm although that shouldn't last more than another hour or two. I still don't trust them not to loose another 2 degrees and end up with a low of like 8, but I'm feeling a bit better about my 9F now. It's hard to tell on satellite due to the snow pack on land giving off really cold IR readings, but it looks like clouds off of Lake Huron are either there now or should be there soon...so we'll see. MCD has jumped 7 degrees in the last hour, while CIU in between is still falling right now (down to 5F). Sites farther west are also beginning to warm. Welcome to the Great Lakes! Just dropped down to 7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Just dropped down to 7... Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Just dropped down to 7...I knew it wouldn't have held at 10, but dang.Edit: up to 9 now. A little too late on the temps starting to warm for me and anyone who was at consensus or warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Looks like the hrrr soundings were on the money Phil. Too bad I didnt believe it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The NWS climate report for this place seems weird for yesterday. The winds are totally wrong. Are we forecasting melted down snow equivalent or what hits the asos because they got .10 yesterday per climo. Edit: Because I don't want to get burned by a MM in climo or wrong value for the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The NWS climate report for this place seems weird for yesterday. The winds are totally wrong. Are we forecasting melted down snow equivalent or what hits the asos because they got .10 yesterday per climo. Edit: Because I don't want to get burned by a MM in climo or wrong value for the wind. The wind value yesterday bothered me, too. That being said, I didn't go low today because of that, I used a climatology argument. As long as the wind on the climate report is higher than 15mph (13kts), I think we can just assume yesterday was a fluke. As for precip, the email wasn't very clear. Probably going to be liquid equivalent (melted), but they also say they'll "try to stick to METARs and Daily Climo", which are in disagreement... that's one of the few things about WxChallenge that has always bothered me, the inconsistency/arbitrariness of frozen precip "verifications". It seems you're not just forecasting what will actually fall, but whether the verification will be from the METARs or from the melted liquid equivalent. They don't tell you a priori. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The wind value yesterday bothered me, too. That being said, I didn't go low today because of that, I used a climatology argument. As long as the wind on the climate report is higher than 15mph (13kts), I think we can just assume yesterday was a fluke. As for precip, the email wasn't very clear. Probably going to be liquid equivalent (melted), but they also say they'll "try to stick to METARs and Daily Climo", which are in disagreement... that's one of the few things about WxChallenge that has always bothered me, the inconsistency/arbitrariness of frozen precip "verifications". It seems you're not just forecasting what will actually fall, but whether the verification will be from the METARs or from the melted liquid equivalent. They don't tell you a priori. I looked at last months summary and a lot of wind days of upper 30s and low 40s mph gusts with low 20s mph sustained. I don't think yesterday is a fluke. They do it all the time it seems. How careless can someone be to overlook not one but four 21 knot sustained speci obs and the likelihood of it only being 21 knots yesterday for a max sustained value is still very low. Edit: Only reason I bring this up is because tomorrow looks to be the same type of day, where if the past holds true, The winds will gust upper 30s low 40s and we will look to see a painfully low number in the low 20s for a sustained wind value. If that's the case I hope someone has it in them to bring this to the NWS Marquette's attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 They might not see 0.10" of precip anyways before 6z today, but the winds concern me. Yesterday seems like a pretty decent mis-representation of the winds, and it seems like that may be common. If today comes in at 13 knots we'll know to shave a few off of what the wind should be. Also, ANJ is in Gaylord's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 They might not see 0.10" of precip anyways before 6z today, but the winds concern me. Yesterday seems like a pretty decent mis-representation of the winds, and it seems like that may be common. If today comes in at 13 knots we'll know to shave a few off of what the wind should be. Also, ANJ is in Gaylord's CWA. Mis-representation? More like people not doing their job right is more like it. And Gaylord's CWA? Why does Marquette come up when I check the climo report then? Edit: Seems like the climate report can be accessed in the Marquette and Gaylord one. Hmm. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Mis-representation? More like people not doing their job right is more like it. And Gaylord's CWA? Why does Marquette come up when I check the climo report then? Edit: Seems like the climate report can be accessed in the Marquette and Gaylord one. Hmm. Ok. Yeah, both offices have it in their climate section, which is odd, but it should be APX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I looked at last months summary and a lot of wind days of upper 30s and low 40s mph gusts with low 20s mph sustained. I don't think yesterday is a fluke. They do it all the time it seems. How careless can someone be to overlook not one but four 21 knot sustained speci obs and the likelihood of it only being 21 knots yesterday for a max sustained value is still very low. Edit: Only reason I bring this up is because tomorrow looks to be the same type of day, where if the past holds true, The winds will gust upper 30s low 40s and we will look to see a painfully low number in the low 20s for a sustained wind value. If that's the case I hope someone has it in them to bring this to the NWS Marquette's attention. I'm not talking about their potential overall. I'm talking about something more specific. Obviously they get wind verifications at or above 21kts occasionally. EDIT: Nevermind, you're talking about the verifications being off. Hmm, only question is, do you punish the people who take into account the low-biased climatology by having them "fix" the numbers? Or do you punish the people who are going for a physical argument by not? Another case of arbitrariness, for which the lack of clarity is going to end up biting people in the butt at no fault of their own... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Trying to understand this controversy. Basically winds from KANJ should be few knots higher for daily peak sustained winds coming from between hourly obs but NWS APX, for whatever reason, is using hourly obs for peak sustained winds instead? If that's the case with this upcoming climo, then that's a shame :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Trying to understand this controversy. Basically winds from KANJ should be few knots higher for daily peak sustained winds coming from between hourly obs but NWS APX, for whatever reason, is using hourly obs for peak sustained winds instead? If that's the case with this upcoming climo, then that's a shame :\ Seems like it. The actual verification should generally be higher than even the SPECIAL METARs, as, because wind varies substantially on an intra-hourly timescale, it's unlikely that the highest 2-min (?) wind speed will occur at an observed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 LOL! 13 knots is the wind in the climo. This is such crap. I might email APX because I'm curious. Today I didn't see any SPECIs with winds higher than the climate report value like yesterday, but it's still pretty unlikely the highest sustained wind occurred in an hourly ob, especially with gusts up to 20 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yeah, it seems like their daily climo reports might take the highest hourly as the highest wind? Just checked back to Nov 29th, and that's the case for each day. If that's true, that explains why climatology is as low as it is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I wonder if it is the limitations of the ASOS or just plain laziness. On second thought, it can't be the ASOS because they are blatantly overlooking the speci obs as well. This is just bad work performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I sent this email to the WxChallenge manager. Not sure if you all agree with me here, but these are my thoughts... Hello!This is a very odd issue that's going to be very tough to resolve, but...The daily climo report for KANJ seems to take the highest hourly METAR observation as the "highest wind speed" for the day. This is different from other WxChallenge cities, where the highest wind speed reported on the daily climo usually occurs between hourly observations (as expected).Unfortunately, this presents a dilemma. Some people will have made their forecasts based on a purely "physical" argument, and compared to other cities, will have been too high on the wind at KANJ. Others will have taken into account the city's climatology, which tempers the wind numbers down to what the daily climo is presenting. I have done the latter, but I don't believe either method is "wrong" per se. The former camp is trying to forecast what will actually HAPPEN at KANJ. The latter camp is trying to forecast what will actually be RECORDED at KANJ. Most of the time, using climatology in this latter way is the right way to go, because it takes into account quirks that arise from things like urban heat island, terrain, etc. However, in this case, it's taking into account an unphysical bias due to the reporting itself.Long story short, I don't see a solution that doesn't arbitrarily punish either the former or latter camp. I don't know what the best solution is. I just thought I'd express my opinion on the matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Maybe the NWS office software is the limitation. So instead of just clicking a button that goes through all the minute obs taking the highest wind speed out. They have to manually do it because they don't have the software capable of doing that? Just something to think about. And Mallow: If this type of human reporting/correction has been going on for years feeding into the climatology of the site, then the climatology of ANJ is not correct, so you can't forecast on pure climo because it isn't correct to begin with. You'd be forecasting on pure ASOS hourly ob climo which isn't the same as the climo of what actually goes on in Sault Saint Marie. I would rather sit this city out than forecast for what a human report will deem the highest wind speed in the climo report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I sent this email to the WxChallenge manager. Not sure if you all agree with me here, but these are my thoughts... I definitely see it as a tough to resolve issue, and will be curious to see what they have to say about it. I think it's an issue of bad "reporting" by APX. Yesterday, the highest max sustained wind WAS higher than the 19 knots listed in the climo report (given multiple SPECI obs that had a 21 knot sustained wind), so in all likelihood the actual sustained wind that occurred was not only higher than 19 knots but probably over 21 knots too...probably closer to 25 knots or so. I emailed APX right before I saw this post, so I'll see what they have to say. I'll probably forecast lower for tomorrow than I normally would unless I hear otherwise between now and 0z, and hope nothing changes for tomorrow. But we'll see. It may be a software limitation, hence all the MMs in the climate report, but it's still pretty hard to overlook 4 SPECIs that had a 21 knot sustained wind yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 So it could be a combination of bad work performance and bad software. This actually would speak a lot about deeper issues, but this isn't a political forum so I'll not dive into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The issue now is whether to forecast with this flaw in mind and risk getting burned by corrections later on or to continue forecasting the way we always have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Maybe the NWS office software is the limitation. So instead of just clicking a button that goes through all the minute obs taking the highest wind speed out. They have to manually do it because they don't have the software capable of doing that? Just something to think about. And Mallow: If this type of human reporting/correction has been going on for years feeding into the climatology of the site, then the climatology of ANJ is not correct, so you can't forecast on pure climo because it isn't correct to begin with. You'd be forecasting on pure ASOS hourly ob climo which isn't the same as the climo of what actually goes on in Sault Saint Marie. I would rather sit this city out than forecast for what a human report will deem the highest wind speed in the climo report. But the bias is consistent, so it's predictable. Anyway, that was my point--that the climatology is errant with respect to what we're forecasting for, but that using climatology when making your forecast is not in and of itself wrong and actually usually gives good insights into a location's quirks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The issue now is whether to forecast with this flaw in mind and risk getting burned by corrections later on or to continue forecasting the way we always have? Exactly. We have no way of knowing what WxChallenge will do with this information, so we're kind of forecasting blind here. Are we forecasting for the actual peak wind, or what's reported? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 27/19/18/.08 Went low on wind because of what was mentioned here so hopefully that doesn't change lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 28/16/18/.08 Forecasting for the climo wind, not the actual wind. Because I don't know what else to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Went 29/19/19/0.13" The models are running too cold west of ANJ ahead of the front, and if that continues farther east then they still may get to around 29F this evening. The models also appear a bit fast with the front, so I don't think temps will start dropping until after 6z. The air arriving in ANJ tomorrow morning is coming from areas in the upper 10's/lower 20's right now, and may be modified some by Lake MI, so I think they'll struggle to drop below 20 tonight, and with a good WNW wind tomorrow evening and lake effect ongoing they may also struggle to drop below 20 by 6z tomorrow night. Winds I sort of punted, would normally go more than 20 knots but have no idea what the verification will be. WNW winds are a pretty good flow for lake effect in ANJ tomorrow evening and lake effect conditions look decent, so assuming snow water equivalent is manually measured like on Monday they should get more than 0.1" of liquid equivalent through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 28/22/24/0.15. Dont buy the cold lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 27/18/18/0.08 Bias are little cooler than models are showing so I went cold on high and low. I'm counting on 18 to come right at 6z tomorrow evening. Winds are adjusted according to APX's climo method and I just went with 0.08 due to ASOS losing most of precip although I should've gone 0.10 to account for manual measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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