OHweather Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I truly have no feel for the lows here. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 HRRR is not preforming well with respect to reality right now... HRRR analysis has KANJ in the mid teens right now, while in reality the ASOS is sitting at 22 as of 05 UTC... d'oh. Looks like the primary problem is extra cloud cover that wasn't well handled by even the higher resolution guidance. Southerly flow and WAA, I've seen the HRRR perform terribly in. Might be the only bias it actually has here that I've noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I got nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Southerly flow and WAA, I've seen the HRRR perform terribly in. Might be the only bias it actually has here that I've noticed. Yeah, I'm upset with myself for going with it for tonight. I have seen the HRRR kill lake effect too quickly many times off of Lake Erie and drop temps too much close to the lake, and I figured that would happen here last night, but the flow was too weak to keep the cold air in Canada from winning out. The lake effect did hold on though. I was surprised how well the HRRR did last night with temps honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Finally hit that pesky low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm just going to try to finish close to national. I'm getting murdered by precip and the low in this city. This might just be my drop city at this point. Hopefully we can all make moves next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Got to make up 6 points on national consensus, which is tough in cities like this... Challenge accepted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah, I was 37.3 points better than consensus in Abilene and will probably by 7-8 worse than it here after today. Probably a combination of consensus doing fairly well and me doing fairly bad. Definitely a big swing from one city to another for me. I wouldn't mind just catching consensus next week at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 It's annoying to see the 22z USL 32nd overall. I just feel like this competition would be a lot more fun without the USL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 32/9/14/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 33/14/13/0 I can see a jump to 33 at some point after 6z. As for low? No way I'm gambling on this one after getting burned on Friday, especially with how well consensus and NWS are performing. I just took USL for winds (after getting burned on Friday on that, too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 33/14/13/0 I can see a jump to 33 at some point after 6z. As for low? No way I'm gambling on this one after getting burned on Friday, especially with how well consensus and NWS are performing. I just took USL for winds (after getting burned on Friday on that, too). You got burned because it was a WAA day. Tomorrow is a CAA day. Totally different situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You got burned because it was a WAA day. Tomorrow is a CAA day. Totally different situation. Yeah, I understand that now :\ I thought about going lower all the way to 10 or so because of that CAA you mentioned, but I'm not sure it'll get that cold quickly by 6z especially with NWS in 13-14 range. I'm not feeling confident in this city and the low could very well overperform models again like Day 1, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 33/9/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 33/10/14/0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Climate report back to the effed up way. They took the highest on the hour winds again by the ASOS today for afternoon report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 31/13/14/0 I'm shocked no one think this'd be more fun without the USL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Damn, really thought about going 34F because of the bump, but I had been burned by going too high way too often in this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 31/13/14/0 I'm shocked no one think this'd be more fun without the USL. Oh, I agree with you. It's giving more people an advantage to keep up with great forecasters in this challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Oh, I agree with you. It's giving more people an advantage to keep up with great forecasters in this challenge. No doubt about that. I mean it has helped me personally but I just feel like it'd be a hell of a lot more realistic if we didn't have it at our disposal. You don't see AFD's mentioning the 22z USL lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Only 10 mph on climo? No doubt about that. I mean it has helped me personally but I just feel like it'd be a hell of a lot more realistic if we didn't have it at our disposal. You don't see AFD's mentioning the 22z USL lol. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Only 10 mph on climo? Agree. They seem to not go through it until the midnight climo. They did the same thing yesterday, but then the night climo boosted the winds, so we just gotta wait. It sucks I know but what are you going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 They seem to not go through it until the midnight climo. They did the same thing yesterday, but then the night climo boosted the winds, so we just gotta wait. It sucks I know but what are you going to do. Actually, that's a good thing even though we got to wait until midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 25/7/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Went 22/4/8/0 Mainly because I can gamble and not lose anything at this point. With light NE winds tonight they'll advect in the very cold air from Canada. They're clear and have a decent snow pack so went cold for the low. For tomorrow, stout low level inversion will hopefully keep them from getting very warm. Very shallow boundary layer so I went low on winds. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Went 22/4/8/0 Mainly because I can gamble and not lose anything at this point. With light NE winds tonight they'll advect in the very cold air from Canada. They're clear and have a decent snow pack so went cold for the low. For tomorrow, stout low level inversion will hopefully keep them from getting very warm. Very shallow boundary layer so I went low on winds. We'll see. I didn't want to take a chance on the high so went middle ground. Low, we are the same LOL, but winds I feel like they could spike tomorrow night. So 26/4/11/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I didn't want to take a chance on the high so went middle ground. Low, we are the same LOL, but winds I feel like they could spike tomorrow night. So 26/4/11/0 The high is more of a gamble than the low IMO, but I think it's possible. Winds you may be right, I'm at consensus on winds so they won't kill me if they go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 25/7/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Went 27/9/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 25/7/9/0 25/7/9/0 I like the forecast BTW, I could certainly see it getting colder for the low tomorrow morning, but I'm sort of hedging my bets. If it stays a bit warmer, my low tomorrow could work out while my low tonight likely won't. If it gets colder, my low tonight will work out, but my low tomorrow will be too high (still on the right side of consensus in that case, though). Even so, I think 5-7 is about where I'd like to be for the low regardless of any "hedging". I really like 24-25. On most days except today (when we had a pre-"frontal" warm spike up a degree), the high has generally been a degree or so below the USLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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