Jurg Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Someone tell wxchallenge their 27 for day 1 never happened. Yes, please. I'd like to have my error point back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Someone tell wxchallenge their 27 for day 1 never happened. As much as I like seeing myself 1st in the nation after day one, it's not justified. 26F should be the verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Look like ANJ is making run at anything below 20. Interesting... Also, it wouldn't surprise me to see big spread on low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hey guys... more fun HRRR tools. Some of you guys know this, but in addition to the NCEP-HRRR, NCAR has their own version of the HRRR that is also running in semi-real time. Thus you can use both models for a "poor man" ensemble approach comparing the two high resolution runs. In the future I'll have some of the other high resolution guidance like the 4km-NAM, WRF NMM and ARW cores for a direct comparison, but for now this might be useful. 2 meter Temperature Comparison Top of Atmosphere Brightness Temperature Comparison 1 km Reflectivity Comparison 10 meter Wind Comparison Let me know what you think! There are very large differences in the forecast low temperature tonight between the NCAR-HRRR and NCEP-HRRR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Those lake effect streamers have really intensified tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 26/16/20/0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 25/13/19/.01 Really hoping the winds die off hard between 09z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 23/19/19/0.01" I don't even know what I'm doing at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 26/17/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 24/16/18/0.01 The high hasn't gone too warm, so that's where my 24 came from. I really think decent WNW winds and lake effect clouds will keep the low pretty warm, although both does lighten as we get closer to dawn. I have no clue on precip except I'm not buying 0.00 USL is spitting out hence my 0.01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Wow I'm way colder for my low than consensus... kinda surprising given that the MOS guidance, ECMWF, and HRRR were all in the 8-12 degree range. Guess a lot of people are riding the USL and the belief that the lake effect band will continue... NCAR-HRRR and to a lesser degree the NCEP-HRRR was suggesting that the sfc winds will shift out of the northeast to allow very cold air from Canada to seep in around 12z tomorrow... we'll see 25/11/19/0.01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Thanks again for your work with the HRRR, Phil! This was a hair pulling forecast. I went 24/17/21/0.06" The lake effect isn't going away tonight. Inversions lower a bit later tonight, but there's still a deep enough boundary layer and decent low level moisture until 12z or so, and winds don't move much more from where they are now (they'll veer a bit more but not much), so I think they'll see half decent lake effect shsn continue for several hours after 6z. They shouldn't be too intense, but they'll definitely get another inch or two of fluffy snow after 6z. I have no idea how they'll measure the liquid equivalent though so I'm not extremely confident in that precip number. The HRRR veers the winds enough to shift the lake effect west of ANJ late tonight and allows them to drop, but shows temps remaining above 15F under the lake effect. Other models keep the lake effect over ANJ all night (which I expect) and generally keep things in the upper 10's. Went with the warmer models. For tomorrow the winds turn offshore and they stay cloudy, with poorer mixing than today and colder mid-level temps, so I think they'll stay below 25F. They should get some influence from Lake Huron tomorrow evening, but the southerly winds will probably keep the warmest just to the east of ANJ, and the winds won't be very strong. I hate to go with the 22z USL temps, but it's performed pretty darn well days 1 and 2 and I couldn't find much reasoning personally to really disagree with it. They should stay pretty well mixed immediately down wind of the lake tonight, so we'll see if my wind is overzealous or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Btw, Phil? Your stuff is AWESOME. Keep up the good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Thanks again for your work with the HRRR, Phil! Btw, Phil? Your stuff is AWESOME. Keep up the good work Thanks guys ... hope to have more goodies soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I still don't know if there is a human observer on site and if we are taking the melted down total instead of ASOS automated precip accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I still don't know if there is a human observer on site and if we are taking the melted down total instead of ASOS automated precip accumulation.It definitely seemed like they took a melted down total on Monday, but they didn't yesterday. It would be nice if they did today because they should've gotten more liquid in the 0-1z hour than 0.00" based on the radar and obs. There's a nice streamer sitting just north of ANJ and it would be nice if that can shift south at some point.Edit: they've been measuring snow so there has to be a human on site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It definitely seemed like they took a melted down total on Monday, but they didn't yesterday. It would be nice if they did today because they should've gotten more liquid in the 0-1z hour than 0.00" based on the radar and obs. There's a nice streamer sitting just north of ANJ and it would be nice if that can shift south at some point. Edit: they've been measuring snow so there has to be a human on site. I hope youre right because I have 0.15 for day 2 lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I hope youre right because I have 0.15 for day 2 lmao.I have 0.13" so I'm in the same boat. My only concern is I'm not sure when they take a melted liquid equivalent vs just going with what the ASOS measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I have 0.13" so I'm in the same boat. My only concern is I'm not sure when they take a melted liquid equivalent vs just going with what the ASOS measures. I know that the melted would be 5z to 5z because it has to coincide with the climate report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This is the only good radar site we have for ANJ to see the lake effect bands.https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This is the only good radar site we have for ANJ to see the lake effect bands. https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WGJ wunderground has the Canadian radar network too... http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=WGJ Looks like they primarily have been in between bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Those 30dBZ echoes could probably drop a tenth in an hour if they set up over ANJ. They're up to 0.06" so far on the day after 0.02" last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The wind has dropped a lot in the past two hours. I think my 20 knots for tomorrow is done for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Up to 0.08" now. The 0z NAM showed a weakening of low-level winds through 3z and a bit of an increase afterwards for a few hours, although they're only 11 gusting to 19 knots right now. Mesoscale affects from the bands may also be influencing winds, but I'm hoping to see an increase over the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 They'll probably end with 0.13-0.15" of liquid for day 2 even without a human measurement. I'd have to imagine a human measure would add some, but probably not more than a total of 0.20" or so as they've struggled to consistently see decent snow, so I just don't think they got too much liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Per climo and the 6z METAR, the final numbers for day 2 are 27/20/22/0.13" Decent on low and precip, but lost 2 points on consensus due to the high. That 0.13" of liquid produced 1.5" of snow, which is reasonable (actually a lower ratio than I would have thought). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 24/17/16/0 Better late than never. Oops on the precip. and probably wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yikes. The NW winds off the lake were overpowered by the cold air and more easterly winds in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This city -_______- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I hate this city. Nailed both the high and the low yesterday but precip and wind (what is up with the wind at this place) screw me. And then last night I forgot to forecast until like 6:58 so all I did was throw in the 22z USL numbers and those blow. Barring a miraculous last 5 forecasts I know what city I am dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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