Mallow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If I can get 82/53/9+, then I'll move into 3rd among Category 4 folks and get a shot at Category 4 trophy for Phoenix with 4th place going into last day. I'm honestly surprised I got a shot after starting so badly on lows, but I'll take it. EDIT: Well, that 52 doesn't help me with trophy. It's not impossible, but still a long shot. I'm with ya. A 53F today would have put me easily within striking distance of a cat 2 trophy. Now I need the wind to be 11kts+, otherwise it's going to be very tough with only one (quiet) day left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Gotta take a couple chances if I wanna get a trophy 84/55/11/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Gotta take a couple chances if I wanna get a trophy 84/55/11/0 84/56/9 Just trying to catch back up to consensus after botching the low the first few nights for myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 84/55/10/0 This may very we'll be my Spring drop city, but I have been doing quite better this week compared to last. Last week was an abomination. When you crack 16 error on lows in one week, you aren't coming back from that too often. This week I've only had 4 error on lows. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I've decided to play it safe for yearly score rather than taking a longshot for Phoenix trophy. 83/54/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 83/54/10/0 Currently in 60th--solid recovery after being ranked 641st following day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 83/54/11/0 Good luck to those of you going for trophies! I dug myself way too much of a hole week 1 to even catch consensus, so I am glad this is the last day in Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Low of 54F = no trophy for me. Oh well, I tried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Good try, Mallow! I've decided to play it safe for yearly score rather than taking a longshot for Phoenix trophy. 83/54/10/0 By not gambling for trophy and going conservative for yearly trophy, this forecast is paying off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Looks like 84/54/11/0 is it. A one point day for me, and I tied for the best high forecasts in the nation... can't complain! The 55F was my stretch to try to get a trophy. If I had stuck with my original 54F, I would have (barely) gotten my trophy, and had a perfect forecast. Always forecast what you think is going to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This was the easiest week since I started doing WxChallenge. I had 4 error points for the whole week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'll finish with a one point day. Building momentum for Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Just a friendly reminder for those playing... I have a WxChallenge focused grid for hourly HRRR forecasts for KSPI that should be updating automatically throughout the next two weeks. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#wxch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 40/21/11/0 I hope Springfield treats me much better than Phoenix did. Oy ve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 40/21/11/0 I hope Springfield treats me much better than Phoenix did. Oy ve 40/21/12 Not confident in the high or low at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 41/23/12/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 40/21/12 Not confident in the high or low at all. I'm not either. Clearing early before sunrise or cloudy all day will kill these temperatures. They could bust either way. Fingers crossed for our forecasts good sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Feel pretty good that the low will be warmer than MOS. By how much remains to be seen... that subsidence inversion should hold firm so clouds should stick around most of the night (and at least a portion of tomorrow) + the consistent 5-10 knot wind should keep the temps up tonight (especially with a lack of snow pack). I'm a lot more worried about the high tomorrow if the clouds don't clear quick enough. I assume they will and allowing for decent mixing they should get out of the 30's. 40/24/12/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Feel pretty good that the low will be warmer than MOS. By how much remains to be seen... that subsidence inversion should hold firm so clouds should stick around most of the night (and at least a portion of tomorrow) + the consistent 5-10 knot wind should keep the temps up tonight (especially with a lack of snow pack). I'm a lot more worried about the high tomorrow if the clouds don't clear quick enough. I assume they will and allowing for decent mixing they should get out of the 30's. 40/24/12/0.00 Based on how poorly the models are doing with clouds (the back edge was rapidly moving southward through Illinois and Iowa when the sun went down), I'm not so sure it will be cloudy all night. Besides, the clouds are so low and the inversion so strong that even with the clouds, the efficient radiational cooling at the top of the clouds will get mixed throughout the boundary layer pretty effectively. That all being said, I definitely considered going as high as 24 or 25 on the low as a nod to the cloud cover. But I just wasn't confident that they would have that much of an impact. Wouldn't surprise me if they do, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 41/20/10/0.00 Looks like SPI will clear out more than progged by the NAM and GFS. 12z RGEM cloud cover product was matching satellite pretty well, and it drops them into the teens tonight, so I went a few degrees lower than the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 40/23/14/0 Didn't want to gamble on day 1. Models seemed to suggest cloud cover would reinforce itself overnight, but recent satellite trend suggests otherwise. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 38/24/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 39/24/12/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Based on how poorly the models are doing with clouds (the back edge was rapidly moving southward through Illinois and Iowa when the sun went down), I'm not so sure it will be cloudy all night. Besides, the clouds are so low and the inversion so strong that even with the clouds, the efficient radiational cooling at the top of the clouds will get mixed throughout the boundary layer pretty effectively. That all being said, I definitely considered going as high as 24 or 25 on the low as a nod to the cloud cover. But I just wasn't confident that they would have that much of an impact. Wouldn't surprise me if they do, though. Eeyup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Ugh my fear is being realized... Pesky clouds won't clear :-/. 40 and above might be doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Wish I would've gone warmer for the low. My 41 is in some trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 41/24/12 Looks like we're still about 2 hours from the clouds clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 38/23/12/0 Wish I went warmer on the low, but I'm fine starting a good amount of points above consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Clouds finally cleared and the temp shot up to 36F... have a couple more hours of daytime heating. Might be able to eek out 38 or 39F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Clouds finally cleared and the temp shot up to 36F... have a couple more hours of daytime heating. Might be able to eek out 38 or 39F.Not off to the best start because of the low, but the remaining forecast period will have plenty of chances for moving up. Would like to see it at least make a run to 39 today. I'll take 1 point error there after the start this city had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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