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July 12-15, 2014 Severe Weather Threat


Chicago WX

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  

939 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...  

EAST CENTRAL MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...  

 

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT  

 

* AT 937 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MATHERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  

TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  

LIKELY.  

 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  

CABLE AROUND 945 PM CDT.  

NEW WINDSOR AROUND 950 PM CDT.  

ALPHA AROUND 955 PM CDT.  

WOODHULL AROUND 1000 PM CDT.  

 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GRIFFIN...SWEDONA...OPHIEM AND  

NEKOMA.  

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 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 412
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     950 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
    
     TORNADO WATCH 412 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
    
     ILC007-031-037-043-053-057-063-075-089-091-093-095-097-099-103-
     105-111-113-123-125-141-143-175-179-197-201-203-130600-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0412.140713T0250Z-140713T0600Z/
    
     IL
     .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     BOONE                COOK                DE KALB            
     DUPAGE               FORD                FULTON             
     GRUNDY               IROQUOIS            KANE               
     KANKAKEE             KENDALL             KNOX               
     LAKE                 LA SALLE            LEE                
     LIVINGSTON           MARSHALL            MASON              
     MCHENRY              MCLEAN              OGLE               
     PEORIA               STARK               TAZEWELL           
     WILL                 WINNEBAGO           WOODFORD            
    
 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

954 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014  

   

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION  

 

953 PM CDT  

 

CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG  

SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH LIKELY SOME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX  

(MCV) NOW HAVING DEVELOPED BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY. THIS HAS A  

SLIGHT SOUTH OF EAST PROPAGATION WHICH FOLLOWS THE INSTABILITY  

AXIS AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONTINUING TRENDS AND A STRENGTHENING  

LOW-LEVEL JET PER VAD WIND PROFILER DATA SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL  

TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN CHICAGO METRO AREA BY 1030-1100PM AND THE  

CENTRAL METRO BY MIDNIGHT.  

 

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS HOWEVER  

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS IN PLACE GIVEN SURFACE BASED  

CONVECTION POSSIBLE...AS THERE HAS BEEN GUSTINESS IN SURFACE  

OBSERVATIONS AND ADAPTED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LFC IS VERY LOW  

/BELOW 3000 FT/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LOW-  

LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH LOW- LEVEL SHEAR AND  

HELICITY BOTH HIGH IN PLACES WHERE LIFT CAN OCCUR FROM THE  

SURFACE. THIS IS MOST FAVORED IN DISCRETE STORMS SUCH AS SEEN IN  

HENRY AND MERCER COUNTY IN WESTERN IL. SOME OF THIS BEHAVIOR COULD  

BE POSSIBLE IN A SMALL- SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE  

CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL IL.  

 

DESPITE SOME QUICKER FORWARD PROGRESSION WITH A COMPLEX...FLASH  

FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.  

 

MTF  

 

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Nice new meso now near Windsor

ONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  

1001 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014  

 

ILC073-131-130315-  

/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-140713T0315Z/  

HENRY IL-MERCER IL-  

1001 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014  

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL MERCER AND  

SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...  

 

AT 958 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  

WAS LOCATED NEAR CABLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. DOPPLER  

RADAR ALSO INDICATED A SECOND TORNADO POSSIBLY DEVELOPING JUST  

NORHTEAST OF NEW WINDSOR. THIS AREA OF ROTATION WAS MOVING EAST TO  

NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH.  

 

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Well that line that was in NW IL certainly crapped the bed as it crossed I-39. Right around the time the watch was issued.

 

Probably a cold pool is starting to develop. Cells in WI have more energy it looks like. Quite a bit of lightning in the northern skies here.

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