E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014

[thewxmann]

Someone needs to update the subtitle... I think Norbert is well over the threshold of "almost being a hurricane"

[Quakertown needs snow]

.

[wxtrackercody]

This hasn't been discussed much--who thinks we'll exhaust the alphabet this year?

 

Norbert is the 14th named storm of the season. The NHC has highlighted 2 other AOIs, and the long-range GFS and ECMWF have another cyclone forming close to the coast. The MJO isn't set to arrive until the end of the month.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd be surprised if we do. I don't buy that 5 day TWO lemon yet. I'm thinking it'll interact with the low to its left. I'm expecting 20-21 storms. IMO, we are more likely to set the major record (10). 1992 owns it outright currently but had 4 majors after today.

[Yellow Evan]

We now have tow lemons. The one to the W is not likely to form, but the one to the E GFS is decently aggressive with. It would not shock me if it winds up a major thanks to an approaching CCKW.

[wxtrackercody]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 8 2014

 

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

 

1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico has become better defined today.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next
few days while it moves slowly northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

 

The GFS shows this passing very close to the southwestern Mexico coastline as a 963mb major hurricane.

[Srain]

The 12Z Euro suggests a miss of the Baja Peninsula with potential Odile. That said a robust cckw is approaching so we may see another Major develop as the weekend nears.

 

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS made the mandarin a 963mbar hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Which is now a cherry. It has perfect conditions aside from a little too much dry air. We could see a Cat 4 out of this easily.

[wxtrackercody]

The spectacular 2014 Pacific hurricane season continues--Invest 94E to the top right, Invest 95E to the bottom left.

 

[Srain]

TD 15E for S of Mexico. Wind shear is expected to keep development slow during the next24 to 36 hours at it drifts NNW. The current track guidance suggests a possible landfall near Cabo San Lucas later this week.

[Srain]

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

Deep convection has increased to the west of the center during the
past few hours, and microwave images show increasing organization
of the low-level center.  Dvorak classifications were 3.0/45 kt
from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB.  Using a blend of these estimates
yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical
Storm Odile.

Odile has been moving slowly northwestward for the last several
hours, and a continued northwestward or north-northwestward drift
is forecast during the next day or two while the cyclone remains in
weak steering currents.  In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone is anticipated
to feel more influence from mid-level ridging to its north and
northeast, and that should cause Odile to move at a faster pace
to the northwest.  Although the models are in fair agreement on
this overall scenario, the big question is how close to the
southwestern coast of Mexico does the center of the storm get.  The
ECMWF and HWRF models are on the right side of the guidance and
bring the center of Odile very near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  Conversely, the GFS and GFS ensemble mean,
which are on the left side of the guidance, keep the center of Odile
well offshore.  The NHC track forecast is again between these
solutions and brings Odile just off of southwestern Mexico in
3 to 4 days, and near the southern Baja peninsula by the end of the
forecast period.

Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days
while the storm remains in low to moderate shear, a highly moist
environment, and over very warm 30 C water.  The only limiting
factor could be land interaction.  The NHC intensity forecast shows
a slightly faster rate of strengthening than the previous one, but
is lower than the SHIPS guidance.

A tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of
southwestern Mexico later today.  Regardless, locally heavy rains
are possible across that area later this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 14.9N 102.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 15.1N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 15.3N 103.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 15.5N 103.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  12/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  13/1200Z 17.6N 104.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  14/1200Z 20.9N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[Ground Scouring]

I don't think that Odile will intensify as much as forecast. Satellite imagery indicates that an upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico is retrograding westward, resulting in a squished high pressure to the north of Odile, thereby imparting some northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear over the TC. The ECMWF shows this upper low moving closer to Odile while gradually weakening over the next three days. Such a solution would keep at least light to moderate shear over Odile. In addition, the weakness imparted by the upper low would support a track closer to the coast, hence more land interaction on the ECMWF, which is notably weaker with Odile than the GFS is over the next three days. I think that a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane is likely. As for the other two systems, at least one of them will become a TS, but northerly shear will increase over the next few days, so their time is short.

[wxmx]

I don't think that Odile will intensify as much as forecast. Satellite imagery indicates that an upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico is retrograding westward, resulting in a squished high pressure to the north of Odile, thereby imparting some northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear over the TC. The ECMWF shows this upper low moving closer to Odile while gradually weakening over the next three days. Such a solution would keep at least light to moderate shear over Odile. In addition, the weakness imparted by the upper low would support a track closer to the coast, hence more land interaction on the ECMWF, which is notably weaker with Odile than the GFS is over the next three days. I think that a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane is likely. As for the other two systems, at least one of them will become a TS, but northerly shear will increase over the next few days, so their time is short.

I see the GS index has become negative in the EPac as well

 

I think that the ULL from the GoM will start to fill up and will be no match to the building upper level anticyclone from  Odile. Weakening in the 0z Euro is due to land interaction, but I don't think the weakness will be as pronounced as shown in the Euro and HRWF, and the ridge to it's north will be the main steering mechanism before getting too close to land. With that said, I agree with the NHC's track and intensity forecast...although the potential for a stronger hurricane is definitely there.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think that Odile will intensify as much as forecast. Satellite imagery indicates that an upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico is retrograding westward, resulting in a squished high pressure to the north of Odile, thereby imparting some northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear over the TC. The ECMWF shows this upper low moving closer to Odile while gradually weakening over the next three days. Such a solution would keep at least light to moderate shear over Odile. In addition, the weakness imparted by the upper low would support a track closer to the coast, hence more land interaction on the ECMWF, which is notably weaker with Odile than the GFS is over the next three days. I think that a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane is likely. As for the other two systems, at least one of them will become a TS, but northerly shear will increase over the next few days, so their time is short.

 

I'm sorry but I disagree. Storms can intensify with light to moderate shear. And the guidance has been shifting west.

 

You realize that virtually every storm this season has gotten much stronger than expected this season, right?

[wxmx]

Thanks to the stubborn Upper Level Ridge NW of Hawaii, there won't be any canes nearing Central/Southern Cali. 

Well, that and probably climo which suggests that canes are extremely rare anywhere near Central/Southern Cali.

[Snow_Miser]

Wow. Anyone else think that cherry could be something special? I haven't been following weather too long but it seems like the E-Pac waves always look way more impressive than the Atlantic ones, with huge masses of cold cloud tops before they become depressions. Wonder if Polo and Odile will be TS at the same time.

Some of the 0z runs take the invest into Baja. That's the last thing they need.

[David Reimer]

Looks like we have Polo!

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1210 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure area south of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odile, located inland over the south-central portion of the
Baja California peninsula.

Updated: Satellite wind data indicate that the area of low
pressure located about 400 miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, has become better defined, and is producing winds to
tropical storm force. The associated thunderstorm activity has
also become better organized during the past couple of hours,
and tropical storm advisories will be initiated at 2 AM PDT this
morning. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph during the next few days. Interests
along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[icebreaker5221]

Looks like we have Polo!

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1210 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of

the low pressure area south of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Odile, located inland over the south-central portion of the

Baja California peninsula.

Updated: Satellite wind data indicate that the area of low

pressure located about 400 miles south-southeast of Acapulco,

Mexico, has become better defined, and is producing winds to

tropical storm force. The associated thunderstorm activity has

also become better organized during the past couple of hours,

and tropical storm advisories will be initiated at 2 AM PDT this

morning. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to

northwestward at about 10 mph during the next few days. Interests

along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of

this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

 

Deja vu?

 

[Yellow Evan]

Polo is a hurricane per ATCF. If it RI's, say hello to major #9.

[phil882]

Polo is a hurricane per ATCF. If it RI's, say hello to major #9.

 

Not going to happen. Satellite derived SST data is just picking up on the cold wake left behind from Odile but there are some sub 26C waters that Polo is traversing over. Its absolutely incorrect to think that the reason why the convective appearance looks disheveled is just due to vertical wind shear alone (despite the fact the NHC has made no mention of cold upwelling). 

 

[thewxmann]

Glad someone brought up the upwelling. The SHIPS output a couple of days ago had 28-29C SST's in Polo's track which didn't make sense to me.

[phil882]

Glad someone brought up the upwelling. The SHIPS output a couple of days ago had 28-29C SST's in Polo's track which didn't make sense to me.

 

This is also my yearly reminder that the global models do not have the ability to depict upwelling by TCs... they are at the mercy of the initial condition SSTs, which then are slowly modified over time to climatological SST values for that time of the year.

[Yellow Evan]

Polo is down and well (almost) out. But now we have 99E. Could become a hurricane or even a major down the road.

[wxtrackercody]

It's not, and probably won't ever be, the best-looking storm this Pacific hurricane season has offered so far, but at the very least it will aid in putting us one step closer to the end of the conventional alphabet.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

 

Convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of
Mexico has increased and persisted overnight.  The convection is not
extremely well organized due to strong northeasterly shear, however
Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the
system has enough organization to be classified as a tropical
depression.  The shear is causing the convection to be displaced to
the south and southwest of the low-level center.  The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest
Dvorak classifications and earlier ASCAT data.  Strong upper-level
winds over the cyclone are expected to continue during the next 24
hours or so.  After that time, the depression is forecast to move
into an area of decreasing shear and some gradually strengthening is
predicted.  Late in the period, the cyclone will move into a less
favorable thermodynamic environment and weakening should commence.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance.

 

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt.  The depression should
move west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge over
Mexico during the next several days.  After 72 hours, the cyclone
will approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude
trough that will be moving into California.  This should cause the
cyclone to slow down and turn northwestward by days 4 and 5. The
track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and the NHC
track is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS model solutions.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  24/1500Z 15.0N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 15.7N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 16.7N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 17.7N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 18.6N 112.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 21.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$

Forecaster Brown

 

[Yellow Evan]

After struggling for a few days, Rachael is def in the right direction. May become a hurricane tomorrow if we're lucky.

[Yellow Evan]

Rachel has very quietly become a 75-knt hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

She's gone, but Simon is here. Currently 45 knts, NHC brings this up to 65 knts. NHC track IMO too far west as the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF brings this close to Baja as a hurricane.

[Srain]

Simon is likely a Major Hurricane at this hour. The guidance is split as to the re-curve scenario with the Euro further W before re-curve commences and the GFS insistent that a quicker turn to the NE begins on Monday. It will be interesting to see how the remnants of Simon affect the sensible weather next week across Northern Mexico, New Mexico and the Central Plains where there is some concern for flooding as the remnants wrap up and become entrenched in the 5H low expected over the Great Lakes later next week.

 

 

[Yellow Evan]

Simon is currently 95 knts. I know some are clamouring for a major, but at that time, a 5.0 from SAb, a 5.0 form 8.1.2 V ADT, and a 5.5 from TAFB supported it.  For the first time ever, we get recon right when it's RIing in an EPAC storms.