The Great Lakes and A Cooler than Normal Spring/Summer?

[user13]

I came across this article today that argues that the record ice on the Great Lakes will cause the Northeast to have have a cooler summer than normal. I wonder how much of an effect this will have. It might also cause more instability for some thunderstorms with approaching cold fronts.

 

Also by looking at the models, the ice should only increase even more over the next few weeks

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/nearly-frozen-lake-superior-ma/23439393

[uncle W]

1977 had record ice, early heat and a hot summer...I can see areas around the lakes being effected by the cold waters...similar to areas near the ocean...

[BxEngine]

Seems the article theorizes it will be cooler near the lakes only?

[user13]

1977 had record ice, early heat and a hot summer...I can see areas around the lakes being effected by the cold waters...similar to areas near the ocean...

Yea Good point but still cold fronts from that region might be able to bring in more cold air, that would have moderated more over the lakes in a normal year

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

If we do have a cooler March and April, then the waters near the coast will remain below average and cold have some localized climate effects going on (primarily in the form of fog). 

[HailMan06]

The temperature is really only moderated within a few miles of the lakes, not so much in our area.

[Rjay]

The opposite goes for late fall when lake effect season starts. Lake temps are warm from the summer so when conditions are right for LES, communities right on the lake are usually rain while places a couple miles inland are snowing.

[famartin]

Yea Good point but still cold fronts from that region might be able to bring in more cold air, that would have moderated more over the lakes in a normal year

 

Since severe weather is determined much more by mid and upper level dynamics than by the amount of cold air behind the front... my guess is that there will be little if any effect.

[NickD2011]

'09-'10 was a cold and snowy winter, and the summer of 2010 was hot and dry

[Stormlover74]

'09-'10 was a cold and snowy winter, and the summer of 2010 was hot and dry

DJF was basically average that year temp wise the March was very warm.

[jm1220]

'09-'10 was a cold and snowy winter, and the summer of 2010 was hot and dry

Our weather is determined much more by downsloping from the Appalachians in the summer, and the effects from Bermuda highs. Springs here are determined from backdoor fronts from the Maritimes (which I could see being more severe than usual due to the very cold ocean water east of New England), and downsloping on westerly winds. Locally, the Great Lakes wouldn't have any effect at all. And the Lakes are small enough to maybe have some temperature effects near the lakes.

[famartin]

Our weather is determined much more by downsloping from the Appalachians in the summer, and the effects from Bermuda highs. Springs here are determined from backdoor fronts from the Maritimes (which I could see being more severe than usual due to the very cold ocean water east of New England), and downsloping on westerly winds. Locally, the Great Lakes wouldn't have any effect at all. And the Lakes are small enough to maybe have some temperature effects near the lakes.

This is something to really think about.  I seem to recall that the spring after the winter of 93-94 had a lot of horrid backdoor cold fronts.  Not sure what water temps were then, but one would think they were cold like this winter, given how cold that winter was.

[chietanen]

Just out of curiosity, I briefly took a look at the average temperatures in Buffalo during summers following winters with unusually high ice coverage (the late 70's, 94, 2004 to name a few), and there really seemed to be no correlation whatsoever.  It looked as though the summer of '76, preceding a harsh winter, was chilly.  I believe the prevailing wind flow in Buffalo during the summer is southwest (off the lake) so one would think that if what this article says was true, we'd see an effect on the temperatures in Buffalo, but, at least in my quick research, that didn't appear to be the case.

[famartin]

Just out of curiosity, I briefly took a look at the average temperatures in Buffalo during summers following winters with unusually high ice coverage (the late 70's, 94, 2004 to name a few), and there really seemed to be no correlation whatsoever.  It looked as though the summer of '76, preceding a harsh winter, was chilly.  I believe the prevailing wind flow in Buffalo during the summer is southwest (off the lake) so one would think that if what this article says was true, we'd see an effect on the temperatures in Buffalo, but, at least in my quick research, that didn't appear to be the case.

 

Given enough time and intensity, the weather pattern will overwhelm the lake waters.

[chietanen]

This is something to really think about.  I seem to recall that the spring after the winter of 93-94 had a lot of horrid backdoor cold fronts.  Not sure what water temps were then, but one would think they were cold like this winter, given how cold that winter was.

 

I frequent the NE forums a lot, and there have been several mentions by knowledgeable people about the likelihood of this in the upcoming spring.  

[Stormlover74]

I frequent the NE forums a lot, and there have been several mentions by knowledgeable people about the likelihood of this in the upcoming spring.

The April-July 94 period was actually quite a bit above normal

[famartin]

The April-July 94 period was actually quite a bit above normal

I could be mis-remembering, I suppose.

[chietanen]

The April-July 94 period was actually quite a bit above normal

 

I'd be thrilled to go from winter to summer.  Spring is my least favorite season.

[SnowGoose69]

If anything is going to result in this being a cool summer its the possibility of a developing El Nino...as a whole developing El Ninos tend to result in cooler than normal summers for the East Coast although it seems 1 month out of the 3 at least in NYC always averages well above normal, July 82, July 87, and August 02 all averaged fairly warm and had heat waves.  The summers of 97 and 09 though were fairly cool.  It does seem there tends to be more severe weather as well during the summer months, I can recall a good amount of severe weather during the summers of 87, 97, and 02.

[uncle W]

If anything is going to result in this being a cool summer its the possibility of a developing El Nino...as a whole developing El Ninos tend to result in cooler than normal summers for the East Coast although it seems 1 month out of the 3 at least in NYC always averages well above normal, July 82, July 87, and August 02 all averaged fairly warm and had heat waves.  The summers of 97 and 09 though were fairly cool.  It does seem there tends to be more severe weather as well during the summer months, I can recall a good amount of severe weather during the summers of 87, 97, and 02.

developing el nino year summers...

year....nino start...ave temp....max....# 90+ days...

1951.......JJA.........73.7...........94............7

1957.......MAM.......75.2.........101..........21

1963.......MJJ.........73.1...........98..........16

1965.......AMJ........72.5...........95..........15

1968.......JAS.........74.3..........98...........17

1972.......AMJ.........73.5..........94..........15

1976.......ASO........74.0..........96..........15

1977.......ASO........75.0........104..........23

1982.......AMJ.........73.2..........98..........11

1986.......JAS..........73.9..........98..........11

1991.......AMJ.........76.3........102..........39

1994.......ASO........76.2..........98..........19

1997.......AMJ.........73.3..........97..........12

2002.......AMJ.........76.0..........98..........32

2004.......JJA..........73.3..........91............2

2009.......JJA..........72.0..........92............7

LT ave...................73.8..........97..........15