blizzard1024 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just off the top of my head, the 1957 block was similar in magnitude...I am sure there are others. In fact, it is more impressive than the current one since those height anomalies are still being produced against the 1981-2010 baseline in a colder world. blocks over oceanic areas are common in cold winters. you need them to keep the cold air over the continents. Here are some more... look at these height anomalies over the highest latitudes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just off the top of my head, the 1957 block was similar in magnitude...I am sure there are others. In fact, it is more impressive than the current one since those height anomalies are still being produced against the 1981-2010 baseline in a colder world. That is extremely impressive. There is the OHC at 30M depth for OND that year. Obviously it's not as detailed as this years. I would presume given the fishing industry, oil tankers, and possibly buoys the data is fairly accurate up there. The question then in terms of upper ocean OHC levels effecting weather patterns. During that huge block. The other half of the NPAC was quite colder than normal. Looks like ENSO positive period as well. Now this is also before the ridging took off and a three month average. So we can't forget that. But on this years chart the entire NPAC is toasty. The heat dispersion differential is much less than the one in the 1956-57 block. Obviously higher OHC and ridging will go hand in hand. The longer the intial ridge the more heat that can be stored in the top ocean layers. It's like a paradox of sorts since we don't know the exact causes of our atmosphere yet. Here is OHC in the OND 1989 period as well. Not as warm. But also lesser ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The dryest California since 1849 when records begin IIRC may be indicative of how unusual this blocking may be. BTW The local river has frozen for the second time in the 10 years I've been in Canada. Prior to 1963 it had frozen every year since the area was settled. Terry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Friv, you want Oct-Dec 1956 for that block because it started in Dec '56 and went into 1957. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The dryest California since 1849 when records begin IIRC may be indicative of how unusual this blocking may be. BTW The local river has frozen for the second time in the 10 years I've been in Canada. Prior to 1963 it had frozen every year since the area was settled. Terry While there is no doubt that this block is unprecedented for the duration and strength over the Northeast Pacific, we are going to have to wait for the official study to see if they can come up with a cause. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2014/0121/California-drought-Scientists-puzzled-by-persistence-of-blocking-ridge-video The unseasonal balmy but dry weather is the result of an equally unprecedented high pressure ridge lurking offshore and blocking the typical winter storms needed to drop precipitation all along the West Coast. This ridge has persisted for 13 months and the longer it lingers, the less likely it is to leave, points out climatologist Brian Fuchs, from the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska. This high pressure ridge system is feeding on itself, “creating a sort of perfect environment for perpetuating the dry conditions” it creates, he says. RECOMMENDED: How much do you know about California? Take our quiz. High-pressure systems are not uncommon, but it is abnormal for them to hang around uninterrupted for so long. “This makes it even harder as winter storms approach for them to break through and change that pattern,” he adds. http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/California-drought-Scientists-to-probe-cause-5163948.php Washington -- California's drought will be one of the extreme weather events that theAmerican Meteorological Society will examine later this year to determine whether the cause is natural variability or human-caused climate change, a federal official said Tuesday. The American Meteorological Society's study will be similar to one the group undertook of extreme weather events of 2012. In September, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society released a report finding that a 2012 Midwestern drought was mainly due to natural variation in weather, but that climate change was a factor in U.S. heat waves that spring and summer. Scientists have not yet linked the California drought directly to climate change, Thomas Karl, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center, said Tuesday in announcing the latest study. "I'm sure there's a way, but we haven't done it yet," he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Here it is. Unfortunitely there is a huge gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 That's because ocean temp data sucks until just recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If you look at the spatial anomalies for this winter so far, you can easily see why the Great Lakes ice cover is much higher than recent winters.... If you look at Minnesota's statewide anomaly for December 2013 from NCDC you will see that it is colder than any of the Decembers of the 1960s and 70s. Epic cold. This January has not let up and with more to come... If this continues, Minnesota could be heading for the record books in terms of a record cold winter. Lake Superior is amazingly ice covered....could it come close to the highest ice cover ever recorded in modern times?? hard to tell what happened before satellite data.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That's because ocean temp data sucks until just recently. yeah and somehow they thread this sparse coarse dataset with the much finer resolution argo data which began in 2003 and bingo it was colder back then and now warming rapidly in the deep oceans. that is where all the CO2 forcing is going.....good place for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 About 61% coverage now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ice coverage just surpassed 62%. When articles started popping up with higher than normal ice coverage back in early January, they predicted a season peak of 62%... So that looks like an underestimation. Will we hit 70%? The real tough number to topple will be 70%, mainly because Lake Ontario is a deep fast moving river/Lake.... Not much time for the surface to really cool before the water is churned out. I'd really like to see it surpass the volcanic cooled winter of 1993-1994's ice coverage, that would bring the best ice coverage in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ice coverage just surpassed 62%. When articles started popping up with higher than normal ice coverage back in early January, they predicted a season peak of 62%... So that looks like an underestimation. Will we hit 70%? The real tough number to topple will be 70%, mainly because Lake Ontario is a deep fast moving river/Lake.... Not much time for the surface to really cool before the water is churned out. I'd really like to see it surpass the volcanic cooled winter of 1993-1994's ice coverage, that would bring the best ice coverage in my lifetime. Looks like almost 70% as of yesterday... Superior is almost completely frozen which is unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Can any of you guys explain why Michigan doesn't cover over? I appreciate the earlier explanation of the lack of ice on Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can any of you guys explain why Michigan doesn't cover over? I appreciate the earlier explanation of the lack of ice on Ontario. Because there is many snow weenies like me who keep blow torches nearby so it never happens. But seriously.. I have heard it has a bit to do with the depth of the lake. Don't quote me on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Can any of you guys explain why Michigan doesn't cover over? I appreciate the earlier explanation of the lack of ice on Ontario. The lakes get fed by large amounts of ground water which help keep the water temps higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow almost 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Over 80% now...on par with 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Over 80% now...on par with 94 Skies in Michigan are significantly sunnier than normal, the lake clouds are way below normal now. The upper peninsula doesn't usually see the sun until March and its been sunny all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My wife has been photographing the ice backed up in the Grand River. First solid freeze since I returned to the area in 2004. Prior to 1963 the river had frozen every year & local merchants had a contest to guess when the ice would break, At some point I'll research how far back the contest went and when it ended. I know it was being held regularly from 1903 on, but it certainly predates that time. Terry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My wife has been photographing the ice backed up in the Grand River. First solid freeze since I returned to the area in 2004. Prior to 1963 the river had frozen every year & local merchants had a contest to guess when the ice would break, At some point I'll research how far back the contest went and when it ended. I know it was being held regularly from 1903 on, but it certainly predates that time. Terry Considering the 1970s were colder than the 1960's, 1950's, 1940's and certainly the 1930's in the Midwest, I'm not surprised this used to freeze more often when you left. Also, considering the 2000-2010 period was only slightly warmer than the 100 year period and colder than the 1990-2000 years, I'm guessing this rivers past freezing was more of an anomaly. Go run the climate maps and check it for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Considering the 1970s were colder than the 1960's, 1950's, 1940's and certainly the 1930's in the Midwest, I'm not surprised this used to freeze more often when you left. Also, considering the 2000-2010 period was only slightly warmer than the 100 year period and colder than the 1990-2000 years, I'm guessing this rivers past freezing was more of an anomaly. Go run the climate maps and check it for yourself. Jong I've only recently come across a local archive that may allow me to find out when the tradition of betting on the ice breakup began. Unfortunately it's not digitalized & will require lots of hands on digging through old records. The end of the freezing (and the betting) will be much easier to determine since local newspapers have digitized much of their "graveyard". I feel as though the physical changes evidenced by the presence or absence of ice can be a more robust indicator of global warming than temperature records alone. It only works of course in areas that hover near the freezing point at some time of the year. The area was first settled ~1809 and the first towns weren't much later. The earliest records are in German, but the Scott's soon followed and it's this group that I suspect began the betting. I begrudge the time I'll have to spend in the basement of city hall, but at some point my curiosity will get the better of me. Closer to your region I know there are anecdotal tales of rum runners crossing to Canada in ice boats. While the prohibition era was a short one it might be an interesting avenue of research (assuming that ice boating hasn't been possible in recent years). Terry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Jong I've only recently come across a local archive that may allow me to find out when the tradition of betting on the ice breakup began. Unfortunately it's not digitalized & will require lots of hands on digging through old records. The end of the freezing (and the betting) will be much easier to determine since local newspapers have digitized much of their "graveyard". I feel as though the physical changes evidenced by the presence or absence of ice can be a more robust indicator of global warming than temperature records alone. It only works of course in areas that hover near the freezing point at some time of the year. The area was first settled ~1809 and the first towns weren't much later. The earliest records are in German, but the Scott's soon followed and it's this group that I suspect began the betting. I begrudge the time I'll have to spend in the basement of city hall, but at some point my curiosity will get the better of me. Closer to your region I know there are anecdotal tales of rum runners crossing to Canada in ice boats. While the prohibition era was a short one it might be an interesting avenue of research (assuming that ice boating hasn't been possible in recent years). Terry I always wonder what the Detroit river would be like if ice cutters didn't chop it up. I would like to see a shipping map during the winter and see how much contribution the ice cutters have to breaking up the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Wow Higher than even 94 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 This is interesting, Looks like lake communities could have a much cooler summer http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/nearly-frozen-lake-superior-ma/23439393 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This is interesting, Looks like lake communities could have a much cooler summer http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/nearly-frozen-lake-superior-ma/23439393 this doesn't even make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 this doesn't even make sense It makes perfect sense what part doesn't to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 this doesn't even make sense It makes perfect sense what part doesn't to you? Right... what part doesn't make sense? Increased ice cover later into spring increases the albedo of the lake. IF the lake is not absorbing as much solar energy, the water will stay cooler longer into the summer and even into next fall/winter than it otherwise would have. The cooler water will moderate the temperatures of communities surrounding the lakes... It's the same reason communities surrounding the lake are warmer in winter when there's no ice than they are when the lakes are ice-covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Right... what part doesn't make sense? Increased ice cover later into spring increases the albedo of the lake. IF the lake is not absorbing as much solar energy, the water will stay cooler longer into the summer and even into next fall/winter than it otherwise would have. The cooler water will moderate the temperatures of communities surrounding the lakes... It's the same reason communities surrounding the lake are warmer in winter when there's no ice than they are when the lakes are ice-covered. Exactly one could maybe argue the lasting affects far into summer tho other then that it's all straight forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Check the anomalies by next weekend, could have all time ice coverage record locked up. The wind will probably cause a temporary decline, but those open areas will just allow more heat to escape while the next vortex drops down and thickens the ice back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 "The lake is going to just start warming this year when it will start cooling off for next year." I highly doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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