killabud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 06Z GFS: 6"+ of snow for NE NJ/NYC/Northern LI. northen li? don't tell me there's temp issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Fwiw the SPC WRF looks pretty amped up as well. Kinda interesting to see the hi res models handle this the way they do. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro starting to look like an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Light snow ends @ 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 .5+ very close to much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Upton is getting a little better for the northern zones. Winds gust to near 30 mph, so there's a chance we could see brief periods of heavy blowing and drifting of snow. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 northen li? don't tell me there's temp issues Sorta. The 850s are primarily below 0C, but the 2m is barely above 0C from 7PM to 10PM Thursday Night, but the temps crash as soon as the heavier precip starts. That is for the Eastern half of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It may look better but honestly only increased qpf by .05 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sorta. The 850s are primarily below 0C, but the 2m is barely above 0C from 10PM to 1AM Thursday Night, but the temps crash as soon as the heavier precip starts. That is for the Eastern half of LI. oh,ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just since the other thread is dead Upton "CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY AND DURATION OF SNOW BANDING ALONG THE COAST. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING." Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just since the other thread is dead "CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY AND DURATION OF SNOW BANDING ALONG THE COAST. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING." Sent from my SCH-I545 Where? EDIT: Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Where? EDIT. Nevermind. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=CI&glossary=1&highlight=off&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&site=NWS&version=1Good explanation by Upton..and is based off the 0z suite and their interpretation of what could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Where? EDIT: Nevermind. Lol I was gonna paste "along the coast". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY446 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...NEARBLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WINDCHILLS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CTZ009>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-012215-/O.EXT.KOKX.WS.A.0005.140102T2300Z-140103T1800Z/SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-446 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON...* LOCATIONS...COASTAL CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITANAREA AND SURROUNDINGS...AND LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENSTHURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO10 BELOW ZERO.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES LATETHURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.* TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.* IMPACTS...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLEBLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WOULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS TRAVELCONDITIONS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 It may look better but honestly only increased qpf by .05 or so Yea i think its around .1 but what I took is it took a big step towards the nam...the ens should be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 SREFs now cut back just a little for NJ.....tons and tons of snow for SNE....added to their amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wonder when Mt. Holly will post up watches/advisories. They must be playing it safe for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 SREFs now cut back just a little for NJ.....tons and tons of snow for SNE....added to their amounts 3z looked fine. The 9z doesn't come out for a while. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This has the potential to be an 18-24 incher for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 3z mean KNYC .63 ISP. .89 BLM .67 TEB. .62 POU. .79 not that we care Bos 1.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wonder when Mt. Holly will post up watches/advisories. They must be playing it safe for the moment. They just did for NW NJ (Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties) and NE PA for 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This has the potential to be an 18-24 incher for Boston easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anything else that should be mentioned? yes - even if you cut the NAM qpf in half it equals .60 and with ratio's 15 :1 snowfall amounts are closer to 9 inches and if the ratio is 20:1 you are talking a foot - which is VERY possible in some locations also considering this is going to be a prolonged event with much below normal temps ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 After digesting all of the 6z data NYC remains a very difficult forecast. For me the storm has 3 parts broken down into Thurs am, Thur PM and Fri AM. All models give NYC at least moderate snow with high snow ratios for the last part of the storm. So even if part 1 and 2 don't deliver part 3 will drop at least 3-6" all by itself, For me the make or break part of forecast is how much if any snow falls before 00z Friday? 6z GFS and 0z Euro say very little >2" but 6z NAM, RGEM and SREF avg out to 3-6" before the almost certain 3-6" in part 3. If dryslot wins out NYC ends up 4-6" if dry slot is less prevelent during the day Thursday NYC ends up 8-10". Hence the NWS forecast of 6-8" for Central Park seems logical after 0z and 6z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wonder when Mt. Holly will post up watches/advisories. They must be playing it safe for the moment. Makes no sense having eastern Union County ( Upton)under WSW and Northern Middlesex County (Mt. Holly) not under any watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 seriously all you guys really need to do is look at the 500 MB maps. This storm has looked great for days. NYC Metro is going to get 6-10 inches at least from this storm. I remember a storm similar to this one that NY meteorologists were calling the 1-2 punch. Basically we were suppose to get 12 inches from the first half of the storm and then another 6-12 for the next half. Wound up with 10 inches in Paramus, New Jersey. This storm is happening. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 seriously all you guys really need to do is look at the 500 MB maps. This storm has looked great for days. NYC Metro is going to get 6-10 inches at least from this storm. I remember a storm similar to this one that NY meteorologists were calling the 1-2 punch. Basically we were suppose to get 12 inches from the first half of the storm and then another 6-12 for the next half. Wound up with 10 inches in Paramus, New Jersey. This storm is happening. Book it. I agree and we also have to consider that the ingredients are there for this to become a MECS bordering on a HECS (especially across areas east and northeast of NYC )with the amount of precip dynamics and a prolonged event and temps in the teens or lower - this will translate to much higher then the normal 10:1 ratios - this will become much clearer in the next 24 hours as new data arrives and we can see on the radars - water vapor etc what we will be dealing with - big question now is where that dry slot on some models is located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I agree and we also have to consider that the ingredients are there for this to become a MECS bordering on a HECS (especially across areas east and northeast of NYC )with the amount of precip dynamics and a prolonged event and temps in the teens or lower - this will translate to much higher then the normal 10:1 ratios Nooooooooooooooooo....that wasn't what I was trying say at all. I hope all of you enjoy your 6-12 inches. Wish I could enjoy some fresh powder. Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is a blizzard on Nassau and Suffolk county. I will cut NAM QPF in half and still come up w .7 avg at 15 to 1 when I use RGEM SREF GFS blend I think this is 8 to 10 area wide . I would hope the euro bumps at 12z , but the 2 ft on the NAM high res onto Long Island should b dismissed for a bit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is a blizzard on Nassau and Suffolk county. I will cut NAM QPF in half and still come up w .7 avg at 15 to 1 when I use RGEM SREF GFS blend I think this is 8 to 10 area wide . I would hope the euro bumps at 12z , but the 2 ft on the NAM high res onto Long Island should b dismissed for a bit . would probably be a blizzard for NyC and 5 boroughs as well if that's the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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