user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nam is even better than 0z Euro 2 to 4. GFS. 4 to 8. NAM 8 to 12 still too much variance 48 hrs out. Not kidding will need to see 24 hours to close the spray all of the above is 10 to 1. Take 15 to 1. Take the mean and wait til 12z tomrrw and see if this spread narrows. My bet match 500 mb and see who's wrong . On cell so can't see maps. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Man i cant wait to see the 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yes I believe it shows more qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Height of the storm for us on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Probably Foot Plus Verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Boom nice QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Long Duration snow bomb. NAM also starting to sniff out Mesoscale Features. I could see it scoring a coup based on Current Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 1"- 1.25" areawide lol.. Comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 1-1.25 across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 if the 6z nam is correct this is going to be HECS!! for NJ NY CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 1"- 1.25" areawide lol.. Comical Well its an interesting sign that it did not back off. Im not a big fan of the nam but this is a dynamic storm so maybe the nam is on to something. It has also done pretty good since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol, i wouldn't say HECS but the 1.25 is getting pretty close to the twin forks... that's almost 18 inches with 15:1 barring any temps issues; overanalyzing sorry... at this rate, might as well just stay up for the 06z GFS, i don't know if it's healthy for me though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 1-1.25 across the board Thats 15-20" verbatim for everyone lol.. Safe to say thats not gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sure is interesting.. Only if the GFS can trend this way. Not giving up on this storm one bit.. Tomorrow should be another interesting day on the model front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well its an interesting sign that it did not back off. Im not a big fan of the nam but this is a dynamic storm so maybe the nam is on to something. It has also done pretty good since November. I tend to think it will back down towards the gfs but who knows. The euro being so much drier is a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even at 10:1 ratios this is 10-15 inches area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I tend to think it will back down towards the gfs but who knows. The euro being so much drier is a red flag. Every other model has 1/3 of the precip the NAM is showing.. Huge red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 I tend to think it will back down towards the gfs but who knows. The euro being so much drier is a red flag. True what was the old rule cut the NAM precip in half lol... But the EURO imo has been really bad since the summer, I would love to see the GFS take more steps towards the nam now... were running out of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm surprised no one posted about the nam in the NE subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 True what was the old rule cut the NAM precip in half lol... But the EURO imo has been really bad since the summer, I would love to see the GFS take more steps towards the nam now... were running out of time I'd gladly cut the Nam in half and take that. Would still be like 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM is also really cold. Snowing in the Teens and maybe single digits. At least 12:1 ratios. Verbatim 12-18 inches area wide. Boston Gets Obilerated BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ok lets cut it in half. 6-9. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm going to be honest. The NAM isn't drunk. Check the OBS. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# 06Z NAM @HR 02: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014010106&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=002 The Heights along the Western Atlantic is already slightly higher and the Northern Jet is slightly more amped on the OBS than the 06Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm going to be honest. The NAM isn't drunk. Check the OBS. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# 06Z NAM @HR 02: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014010106&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=002 The Heights along the Western Atlantic is already slightly higher and the Northern Jet is slightly more amped on the OBS than the 06Z NAM. hm yea good obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm surprised no one posted about the nam in the NE subforum. Because they know up there that it's garbage. I can see a more wet, amplified coastal low than the globals show now, but nothing like that. No model even comes near that depiction. The NAM overamplifies and overdoes storms like this at this range often. As much as I'd like to see it (although a chunk of the precip IMBY is rain or mix), I give it a tiny chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 4k is insane, I can only wish that it verifies...It also has that weird banding before the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 hm yea good obs Correction for my post above. The PV is in the same location that the 06Z NAM places it, but the Northern Stream is without a doubt digging a bit more. Also, the back of the vort is digging more towards the west. Sound a bit familiar? The end result of all of this will be interesting, but it's unclear if the OBS will make the NAM verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even if you cut the NAM QPF in half that is still 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hi-Res Nam has everyone in 1.00-1.25 Qpf and most spots even at 1.25-1.50 with 2+ Qpf locally in Long Island and CNJ! FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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