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Carvers Gap

Useful Weather Links - Tennessee Valley Style ***Updated Links Nov 2018***

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Another tool from the NCDA.Using Lawrenceburg as an example when the F5 hit there back in 1998

 

 

It's easier to put on all events for what state and county you use

 

 

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=47%2CTENNESSEE#

 

Edit:The F5 in Lawrenceburg could have been much worse than anyone could have imagined.Adjacent to it's path was the city Ethridge which is home to one of the largest Amish communities in the state of Tn,luckily it just went through the fields basically.As most people know,Amish builds their own homes and basically they never would have known what could have been without electricity or any source of communication.

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Found an interesting site from the University of Wisconsin with some non operation GOES 17 imagery:

http://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=G17-ABI-FD-BAND01 

Also, thanks to all for the good conversation lately (esp. Fall-Winter spec.), have been wanting to participate more, but swamped with work at this time. Although just catching up it looks like boring heat is the optimal word for now. 

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http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/

I don't believe this site has been shared on this thread. It's especially useful for it's snow&ice cover map as an alternative to https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/  as well as having many other uses such as satellite imagery, NWS radar sites, and surface observations. You can thank Jax for finding it.

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7 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong thread, but does anyone have any good resources/links pertaining to future PDO behavior?

It's leveled off recently.The dark shade is positive the white shade is negative.It could still stay weak/positive-negative into winter then drop off into winter

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore.dat

 

Edit:"Drop off", i mean going more positive, just wanted to clarify that  to avoid confusion

 

Teleconnections  A More Technical Discussion   Page 8   Weather Spotlight   33andrain.png

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Current 90 day model bias. Hopefully these update in the page but maybe not. Won't bother with the Canadian, because they upgraded recently, but the old Canadian was in the 4-5+ degrees top cold at every period from 2-5 through 11-15. The most accurate 2-5 day temp forecast was NWS forecast offices, almost mirrored by GFS MOS. For longer range the Euro Op was best, but the GFS OP is surprisingly better than the Ensembles. The Canadian stunk at every level.

Euro Ens 

ECMWFENSBiasdays2-5.png

ECMWFENSBiasdays6-10.png

ECMWFENSBiasdays11-15.png

 

GFSENS

GFSENSBiasdays2-5.png

GFSENSBiasdays6-10.png

 

GFSENSBiasdays11-15.png

 

Euro Op

ECMWFBiasdays2-5.png

 

ECMWFBiasdays6-10.png

GFS OP

GFSBiasdays2-5.png

GFSBiasdays6-10.png

 

GFSBiasdays11-15.png

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Good find.  I wouldn't argue with many of those, but I think(am nearly certain) the EPS has a really strong warm bias from d10-15 and also for the Weeklies.  It is usually significantly warmer at 2m than any of the American model output.  Not sure how those are generated, but the 90d timestamps might be skewing those.  I can say from personal experience, the EPS has a warm bias in d10-15.  Maybe the miss earlier in January and over Canada last week is skewing those maps as the past 90 days of modeling have had some wicked busts where modeling verified much warmer than modeled d10-15.   Additionally, I would think that modeling would have some sort of correlational coefficient rating based on where features verified on a map - I would be interested to see those as well.  

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50 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Good find.  I wouldn't argue with many of those, but I think(am nearly certain) the EPS has a really strong warm bias from d10-15 and also for the Weeklies.  It is usually significantly warmer at 2m than any of the American model output.  Not sure how those are generated, but the 90d timestamps might be skewing those.  I can say from personal experience, the EPS has a warm bias in d10-15.  Maybe the miss earlier in January and over Canada last week is skewing those maps as the past 90 days of modeling have had some wicked busts where modeling verified much warmer than modeled d10-15.   Additionally, I would think that modeling would have some sort of correlational coefficient rating based on where features verified on a map - I would be interested to see those as well.  

 

From what I've seen it's been verifying similarly since November or December. It is much warmer than the North American models because they've been ridiculous. the off the chart GEFS had been verifying almost 8 degrees too cold. 

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Seriously great site, @John1122.  I could spend days there.  This is line graph data from the same site.  I would set forth the idea that four time periods are skewing normal model tendencies during the past 90 days(early Nov, mid Dec, early Jan and mid Jan).  Looks like there is a big bust in December where models missed by 10-15 degrees and early and mid January where models busted by 7-10+ degrees during week one and two.  Overall, January misses have skewed model tendencies...as we know January has not been a good month for modeling.  I know the big bust in early January was where modeling was too cold.  I am assuming the miss in December is also the same based on the idea that we have been head faked twice and Christmas being warm was a huge miss.  For example, the December 13th 12-day forecast would actually verify on December 25th which we know was warm.  I might assume Novembers model numbers were actually too warm as twelve days after October 30 were a period of severe cold.    December and January were both well documented bad time frames for modeling as was early November when modeling completely missed the cold.  What would be interesting is to see the rest of the year.  Not sure how to dig those up.  Interestingly the GFS ensemble was better than the Euro at spotting cold last November from the d12 range.  It was nearly two degrees better than the EPS(albeit bad scores for both).  As suspected, the GEFS spotted the cold snap in mid November.  So overall, I would suggest normal model tendencies are skewed and potentially might misrepresent modeling as being "too cold" because of an anomalous two month warm period(December to January).  So it is a tale of two contrasting biases.  In early November(when the pattern changed to cold) the models were too warm.  During December and January, modeling was too cold during near record warmth as modeling almost always has trouble with extremes.  So, those maps above have two months of cold bias and one week of warm bias.  So, makes sense they are skewed.  So, I think we have to consider current model tendencies but be wary of using past performance as and indicator of future performance.  For example, I think many assumed modeling in December(that predicted warmth) was possibly wrong, because its past performance had been too warm in early November.  The warm December forecasts verified.  It is possible that the same thing will happen in reverse where modeling busts high.  Not saying that will happen, but the antecedent  performance of November certainly did not continue into December.  In other words, sometimes modeling mistakes can move from a cold bias to a warm bias vey quickly as occurred in November.  

1853014834_ScreenShot2020-01-28at6_52_28PM.png.43b742a813d6f2224b193454a043f214.png

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