wncsnow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 yep NAM is looking much better as far as QPF, but still mostly .10-.20 amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hr 42 of the 00z nam has you in the qpf max '85 (Haywood Co.). Of course this is just one run, but its much better then the last. Ya the NAM and GFS are like night and day. The GFS is pretty much bone dry but the NAM looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 6Z NAM looks even better...but am reminding myself that the GFS has whipped the NAM all season so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Cmc was not too bad. Even has another light event on Saturday. In fact the 500mb looked like it would yield more in the way of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Ya the NAM looked good but the GFS was dry. Franklin going down the road it would be short of a miracle if we did not cash in on this upcoming patter. But hey so far we have not so quess it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Cmc was not too bad. Even has another light event on Saturday. In fact the 500mb looked like it would yield more in the way of snowfall. Yes...the 6Z RGEM gives a good event thru Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Looks fairly snowy on Hemp Hill this morning: http://www.maggievalleyonline.com/weather/hemphill.jpg Will have to get a weather report for my mtn top and see what's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Looks fairly snowy on Hemp Hill this morning: http://www.maggievalleyonline.com/weather/hemphill.jpg Will have to get a weather report for my mtn top and see what's up. I can say Mike that down here at about 3500 feet we are getting a mix of snow, rain, and sleet this morning with the temp down to 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On the 6Z RGEM @ 30-hr, is that called a closed off Low popping up over the upstate? If so, last night's 21Z SREF was showing this also. Today's 6Z GFS just said this for the mtns tonight....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOMWiOekcBU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 12z nam agrees with 00z run. If I were forecasting solely from this model, then I think 1-3 inches is possible for the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 12z nam agrees with 00z run. If I were forecasting solely from this model, then I think 1-3 inches is possible for the valley. And that might be underdone! The 12Z NAM is crazy wet. Taken at face-value (which we shouldn't do), liquid amounts are near .33" for Asheville. Soundings are very cold, favoring at least 12:1 or maybe even 15:1 ratios late tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Wow Tracker I didn't want to get too excited, but if your excited then...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Wow Tracker I didn't want to get too excited, but if your excited then...... Ha ha. I really want to see model consensus on this before we get locked in. The drier trends on the GFS are disconcerting, but recall it was only yesterday that the NAM was 0.0" too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Ha ha. I really want to see model consensus on this before we get locked in. The drier trends on the GFS are disconcerting, but recall it was only yesterday that the NAM was 0.0" too... Yeah was just thinking the same thing. I guess we will have to see how the 12z gfs comes in. If it begins to cave to the nam then I think we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 30 this morning up on the mtn top with a decent covering of snow. Starting to turn into the snowiest week of the Winter! (Okay that isn't really saying much! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll just throw this out there for you guys: the last time Asheville saw a one-inch snow event was back on January 10, 2011. It's been three years! Could this be the system (or week?) that finally puts us over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll just throw this out there for you guys: the last time Asheville saw a one-inch snow event was back on January 10, 2011. It's been three years! Could this be the system (or week?) that finally puts us over?thats really bad. And I thought I was doing bad with only three inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll just throw this out there for you guys: the last time Asheville saw a one-inch snow event was back on January 10, 2011. It's been three years! Could this be the system (or week?) that finally puts us over? I'll believe it when I see it. I'm very gun shy, and know not to get excited yet. Wow 1-3 inches would be great. GSP not sounding to good about the possible snow yet, guess they're being they're conservative selves, we are getting into the time range for watches and advisories to go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll believe it when I see it. I'm very gun shy, and know not to get excited yet. Wow 1-3 inches would be great. GSP not sounding to good about the possible snow yet, guess they're being they're conservative selves, we are getting into the time range for watches and advisories to go out. There are a couple reasons why they didn't issue anything in the overnight disco. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST IN TOMORROW/S FORECAST...AS THERE ARE RATHER MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS REGARDING HANDLING OF THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE NAM IS STRONGER/SLOWER...AND ESTABLISHES A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS. AS SUCH...THE NAM FEATURES MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE DEVELOPMENT/STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS AND A CONSIDERABLY WETTER SOLUTION...AS IT DROPS .2-.4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND. MEANWHILE...THE GFS YIELDS LESS THAN .10 INCH. OVERALL...THE LATEST ECMWF REPRESENTS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS KIND OF/SORT OF BEEN BASED UPON THAT. WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING IN UNISON WITH ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING...SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT...IF NOT THE ONLY P-TYPE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND 1-2 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL BAND...WITH W/NW UPSLOPE FLOW LIKELY ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES A BIT ALONG THE TENN BORDER. WE CONTEMPLATED ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR THE TENN BORDER COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT THIS BEING A THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MRX AND RNK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 12z gfs has a small amount of moisture for tomorrow so that better then what it showed last night. The best part about this gfs run is that it showed a nice hit Friday morning with good looking rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yes, the 12Z GFS run is again night/day difference compared to the NAM. Unbelieveable state of modeling in the USA right now. It all comes down to how fast the trough goes negative tilt. NAM is quicker and thus pumps out the moisture, while GFS is much later and thus much more progressive with the wave. Will now need to wait until 12Z Euro to see what compromise/blend solution will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Rgem looks like the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Rgem looks like the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 12z nam Bufkit for KAVL shows saturated air with good snow growth and omega intersecting. Temps look to crash right as event begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Omega/snow growth view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Cmc looks good for a 2-4 for the mtns Friday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Cmc looks good for a 2-4 for the mtns Friday night! franklin we've got stuff going on at the house saturday with folks coming up from charlotte and down from lexington. is it possible this could be a descent snow for KAVL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 franklin we've got stuff going on at the house saturday with folks coming up from charlotte and down from lexington. is it possible this could be a descent snow for KAVL?if the cmc is right a decent event. Gfs is very light. Maybe the Euro will be good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Ukie on board for a nam/cmc like event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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