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2nd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains


Met1985

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Mt. Leconte hit 34F last weekend, so it's first freeze will probably be within the week. Fall color is about to peak there within 7 days.

 

It's just an hours drive to cherokee orchard for me, and then an easy 6 mile hike up to Leconte - even in the winter.

 

I'll see what I can find for you guys this winter.

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Mt. Leconte hit 34F last weekend, so it's first freeze will probably be within the week. Fall color is about to peak there within 7 days.

 

It's just an hours drive to cherokee orchard for me, and then an easy 6 mile hike up to Leconte - even in the winter.

 

I'll see what I can find for you guys this winter.

Keep us updated on that side of the Apps.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Now that it is October 1...the snow can start at anytime...bring it on! :)

 

http://wxbrad.com/last-weekends-snow-was-earliest-in-record-in-north-carolina/

 

 

"THE NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER ON BEECH MOUNTAIN... NORTH CAROLINA
RECORDED ONE HALF (0.5) INCH OF SNOW THAT OCCURRED BETWEEN 10 AM AND
NOON ON SATURDAY MORNING... OCTOBER 1ST... 2011. THAT IS THE
EARLIEST MEASURABLE AUTUMN SNOW ON RECORD AT A NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OBSERVATION SITE IN NORTH CAROLINA."

 

 

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Things may get interesting in a week or two. Might be looking to much into the pattern but something to keep an eye out on.

GFS drops temps into the upper 20's in about a week for the highest elevations with a NW wind. The cold air probably will be too shallow to generate snow flurries but interesting to see what develops. The European doesn't generate anywhere close to that level of cold however. 

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GFS drops temps into the upper 20's in about a week for the highest elevations with a NW wind. The cold air probably will be too shallow to generate snow flurries but interesting to see what develops. The European doesn't generate anywhere close to that level of cold however. 

Ya Mike may have to wait a little longer but some good signs out there at least.

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Well if been tip toeing around the idea of snow next week around the 24th but tonight the GFS has at hour 171 snow breaking out in WNC in those favored upslope regions. Know this is one of the deepest troughs I've seen the GFS have with this cold shot but I do like the setup of things in the medium range.

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GFS still has a chance for some snow next week and also for Halloween know.

RAH mentioned something in their short term discussion:

THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON ON

TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW ENOUGH TIME FOR HIGHS TO AGAIN REACH INTO

THE UPPER 50S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT

SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE NORTHWESTERLY

WIND SHIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE TRULY COLDER AIR IS NOT

EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH...

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH

THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...

POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE

WEDNESDAY.

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RAH mentioned something in their short term discussion:

THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON ON

TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW ENOUGH TIME FOR HIGHS TO AGAIN REACH INTO

THE UPPER 50S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT

SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE NORTHWESTERLY

WIND SHIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE TRULY COLDER AIR IS NOT

EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH...

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH

THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...

POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE

WEDNESDAY.

That would be something down that way. Interesting.

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The details keep changing  but looks like we will see two shots of colder air and maybe two shots at seeing the seasons first flakes. I think the mountains up near Boone and Avery County and near maybe Mitchell will see the best chance for snow chances for Wednesday when the cold air works in here in the mountains. The second system and much better chance for snow looks to come in here Thursday night through Friday when we have better coverage of precipitation and we have more cold air to work with, One thing we will get very cold. I could see some teens showing up in the most favored terrain in the mountains.

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The details keep changing  but looks like we will see two shots of colder air and maybe two shots at seeing the seasons first flakes. I think the mountains up near Boone and Avery County and near maybe Mitchell will see the best chance for snow chances for Wednesday when the cold air works in here in the mountains. The second system and much better chance for snow looks to come in here Thursday night through Friday when we have better coverage of precipitation and we have more cold air to work with, One thing we will get very cold. I could see some teens showing up in the most favored terrain in the mountains.

Yalls best shot comes Friday morning for any snow with the passage of the clipper type storm. Def alot wetter than the one wednesday.

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Yalls best shot comes Friday morning for any snow with the passage of the clipper type storm. Def alot wetter than the one wednesday.

Ya I agree. The GFS is really jumping on that second waves of low pressure coming further south each time which should help us get some moisture in here with the cold air.

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Awesome 85'!  Glad to finally start the flake watching season!

Oh Ya even if we don't get anything through November. It will be great to see some mood flakes at least. Still early but there might be some decent snow totals in the most favored upslope areas with this set up. I know one thing the cold air is coming.

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Thanks for the info guys!  I am just reaching for a stray flake or two, I know down here in the valley we never fair well in these type of events, even in middle of winter.  Even if it doesn't happen its more encouraging to me then highs in the 80 and much more fun to follow on the models!  Hopefully we get our fair share of snow this year, I had a season pass to Wolf Ridge last year and they never even fully opened it, so we could us a good year.  It seems more factors are pointing towards a good winter then against but we have done this dance before with high hopes only to be left alone at the ball in recent past, so who knows!

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I guess I'm not overly excited by the snow potential for this setup. Looking at BUFKIT soundings at KAVL using the latest NAM/GFS shows that the cold air not to be overly impressive aloft and more importantly...no areas of snow growth in the clouds. The ridge tops will be more than cold enough for snow..moisture won't be problem but dendrites are very unlikely unless we get more cold air penetration Southward.  Rather this setup looks more like a snow grain, graupel,  freezing drizzle type of thing with perhaps a dusting of white on the ground.  Actually, strong moist winds favor a nice rime event for Mt Mitchell, Roan Mtn, Smokys, and maybe even my mtn top. 

 I think you've summarized this perfectly. Now I'm sure some will see token flakes...particularly in the high country, but the lack of saturation in the dendritic snow growth zone can't be ignored.

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