TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Off Africa. BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_al982013.investFSTDARU0400100000201309021737NONENOTIFY=ATRPENDINVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013090218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013AL, 98, 2013090118, , BEST, 0, 80N, 120W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2013090200, , BEST, 0, 80N, 129W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 80N, 137W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2013090212, , BEST, 0, 80N, 145W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2013090218, , BEST, 0, 82N, 153W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Off Africa. BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al982013.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201309021737 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013090218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013 AL, 98, 2013090118, , BEST, 0, 80N, 120W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2013090200, , BEST, 0, 80N, 129W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 80N, 137W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2013090212, , BEST, 0, 80N, 145W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2013090218, , BEST, 0, 82N, 153W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Those coordinates are just off the North Pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Why do you think this? The Euro and GFS don't look like they're into this one, either. GFS has been on and off with this one...Euro has been meh, agreed...with Fernand GFS was more on than off, but almost never showed more than a strung out cyclone, the Euro was more off than on. Fernand part two doesn't seem that likely. The wave that the fernand one fired from was probably more organized at this point then the mess that's down near the Yucatan now. Not saying that wave WON'T develop...I don't think the odds are very high for it. And lolz on 97L...I can't waste much time on it at this point if the track it's going to take has Hispaniola all over it. The wave that originated Fernand was a mess prior to the Yucatan, it only began to organize over land. I had some hopes for the West Caribbean wave, but low to mid vorticity is still rather meager and farther South than I'd prefer. Very similar to Fernand, max vorticity prior to the Yucatan was just off the south coast of Belize... Being said all that, conditions now look a little more marginal over the GoM than with Fernand, but it looks like it will take a more northerly road, so there's still chance. I don't expect much anyway...namewaster tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 African wave looks really impressive and is at 7-8 North. Seems poorly initialized by the globals, or they have it going almost due north, which it is not doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 African wave looks really impressive and is at 7-8 North. Seems poorly initialized by the globals, or they have it going almost due north, which it is not doing. Yea, and it is a little perplexing why the GFS takes 98L NNW when the 500 hPa ridge looks pretty robust. Probably has a bit too much vorticity associated with the other MCS located NE of 98L The ECMWF (while probably too weak) takes the 500 hPa vorticity on a further south track (although it gains quite a bit of latitude) around 12-13N as it passes south of the Cape Verdes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 How is Euro looking for AL 97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 How is Euro looking for AL 97 Through 36 hours its weaker and further south... still keeping the primary 850 hPa vort associated with 97L and not the other cluster to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Sharp recurve out sea on the 18z models for 97L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Sharp recurve out sea on the 18z models for 97L Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Link? Although if you want to believe the 12Z GFS there is more to this story in the medium range... it gets caught in the ridge and starts interaction with an upper-level trough as it drifts back westward before model truncation at 192 hours... but obviously these details are pretty useless given the poorly organized nature of the system currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Link? http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif I wouldn't dismiss the GFS ensembles out of hand, but considering it is still weak and CIMSS low/weak and low to middle/not as weak steering suggests almost a due West path, I'm not sure why it'd be in a hurry to recurve as suggested by the GFDL and HWRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Although if you want to believe the 12Z GFS there is more to this story in the medium range... it gets caught in the ridge and starts interaction with an upper-level trough as it drifts back westward before model truncation at 192 hours... but obviously these details are pretty useless given the poorly organized nature of the system currently. You may know the answer. Why does the GFS in the short range take this NW instead of West? Even the simple BAM models have a WNW to NW heading from the get go, so I suspect I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 There is an interesting development, the Euro and GFS agree on a strong tropical system in the MDR at day 10, this needs to be watched if the Euro is right with the ridge\trough setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif I wouldn't dismiss the GFS ensembles out of hand, but considering it is still weak and CIMSS low/weak and low to middle/not as weak steering suggests almost a due West path, I'm not sure why it'd be in a hurry to recurve as suggested by the GFDL and HWRF. Its worth noting that the ECMWF is not even close to the GFS, with a weak low-level vort somewhere in the western Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 There is an interesting development, the Euro and GFS agree on a strong tropical system in the MDR at day 10, this needs to be watched if the Euro is right with the ridge\trough setup Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Its worth noting that the ECMWF is not even close to the GFS, with a weak low-level vort somewhere in the western Caribbean. Hard to tell with an entity that weak, but after Hispaniola interaction most of the energy transfers to the Bahamas region in the Euro...by day 10 is right in the coast of South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Do you have a link? I just hope it isn't upgraded before the 5 pm EDT advisory on September 11th. Gustav was upgraded on the 11 am EDT advisory in 2002... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Very interesting set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Hard to tell with an entity that weak, but after Hispaniola interaction most of the energy transfers to the Bahamas region in the Euro...by day 10 is right in the coast of South Carolina. True... its so weak though its really nothing more than a shear axis in the Bahamas with a remnant broad low-level circulation over the Yucatan as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Hard to tell with an entity that weak, but after Hispaniola interaction most of the energy transfers to the Bahamas region in the Euro...by day 10 is right in the coast of South Carolina. FWIW, 15 km FIM 9 quickly merges 97L with wave behind it (as seen on its PW loop), generates a tropical storm, fishes it well East of the US, near miss of Bermuda by a badly sheared 40-45 knot storm at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Pretty good shot of whats going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 So many lemons we can make lemonade. When life gives you lemons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 And thank goodness 97L isn't doing anything... I would hate to have one of the few chances this year be destroyed by Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 When life gives you lemons... If life doesn't also give you water and sugar, the lemonade will be awfully sour. Oh, IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 18z GFS follows the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2013 Author Share Posted September 2, 2013 18z GFS follows the 12z. Nice fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Nice fish! 97L and friend looks like your best bet for anything chaseable first half of September Closer to home, and although it doesn't do much with it, GFS may have a happy pattern for Florida-Carolinas if 97L and its neighbor do develop. The GFS just has a big sloppy low then, because of my glass half full optimism, I'm ignoring that and just showing 500 mb heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Within days of the peak of the season, the magic indices all say things should be active, but they aren't. Reliable models suggesting 1, at best 2, storms in the next 10 days. I'm naturally optimistic, and boy do I wish 97L and friends would get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 From Twitter. 10 minute winds, BTW. Labor Day 1935 http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/labor_day/labor_article.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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