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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2


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Off Africa.

 

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309021737
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013090218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013090118, , BEST, 0, 80N, 120W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 
AL, 98, 2013090200, , BEST, 0, 80N, 129W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 
AL, 98, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 80N, 137W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 
AL, 98, 2013090212, , BEST, 0, 80N, 145W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 
AL, 98, 2013090218, , BEST, 0, 82N, 153W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

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Off Africa.

 

BEGIN

NHC_ATCF

invest_al982013.invest

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201309021737

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013090218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013

AL, 98, 2013090118, , BEST, 0, 80N, 120W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 

AL, 98, 2013090200, , BEST, 0, 80N, 129W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 

AL, 98, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 80N, 137W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 

AL, 98, 2013090212, , BEST, 0, 80N, 145W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 

AL, 98, 2013090218, , BEST, 0, 82N, 153W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Those coordinates are just off the North Pole

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Why do you think this?  The Euro and GFS don't look like they're into this one, either.

GFS has been on and off with this one...Euro has been meh, agreed...with Fernand GFS was more on than off, but almost never showed more than a strung out cyclone, the Euro was more off than on.

 

Fernand part two doesn't seem that likely. The wave that the fernand one fired from was probably more organized at this point then the mess that's down near the Yucatan now. 

 

Not saying that wave WON'T develop...I don't think the odds are very high for it.

 

And lolz on 97L...I can't waste much time on it at this point if the track it's going to take has Hispaniola all over it.

The wave that originated Fernand was a mess prior to the Yucatan, it only began to organize over land.

 

I had some hopes for the West Caribbean wave, but low to mid vorticity is still rather meager and farther South than I'd prefer.

Very similar to Fernand, max vorticity prior to the Yucatan was just off the south coast of Belize...

 

 

Being said all that, conditions now look a little more marginal over the GoM than with Fernand, but it looks like it will take a more northerly road, so there's still chance. I don't expect much anyway...namewaster tops.

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African wave looks really impressive and is at 7-8 North. Seems poorly initialized by the globals, or they have it going almost due north, which it is not doing.

 

Yea, and it is a little perplexing why the GFS takes 98L NNW when the 500 hPa ridge looks pretty robust. Probably has a bit too much vorticity associated with the other MCS located NE of 98L The ECMWF (while probably too weak) takes the 500 hPa vorticity on a further south track (although it gains quite a bit of latitude) around 12-13N as it passes south of the Cape Verdes. 

 

vzkncl.jpg

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Link?

 

aal97_2013090218_track_early.png

 

Although if you want to believe the 12Z GFS there is more to this story in the medium range... it gets caught in the ridge and starts interaction with an upper-level trough as it drifts back westward before model truncation at 192 hours... but obviously these details are pretty useless given the poorly organized nature of the system currently. 

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Link?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

 

I wouldn't dismiss the GFS ensembles out of hand, but considering it is still weak and CIMSS low/weak and low to middle/not as weak steering suggests almost a due West path, I'm not sure why it'd be in a hurry to recurve as suggested by the GFDL and HWRF.

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aal97_2013090218_track_early.png

 

Although if you want to believe the 12Z GFS there is more to this story in the medium range... it gets caught in the ridge and starts interaction with an upper-level trough as it drifts back westward before model truncation at 192 hours... but obviously these details are pretty useless given the poorly organized nature of the system currently. 

 

 

You may know the answer.  Why does the GFS in the short range take this NW instead of West?  Even the simple BAM models have a WNW to NW heading from the get go, so I suspect I'm missing something.

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http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

 

I wouldn't dismiss the GFS ensembles out of hand, but considering it is still weak and CIMSS low/weak and low to middle/not as weak steering suggests almost a due West path, I'm not sure why it'd be in a hurry to recurve as suggested by the GFDL and HWRF.

 

Its worth noting that the ECMWF is not even close to the GFS, with a weak low-level vort somewhere in the western Caribbean. 

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Its worth noting that the ECMWF is not even close to the GFS, with a weak low-level vort somewhere in the western Caribbean. 

Hard to tell with an entity that weak, but after Hispaniola interaction most of the energy transfers to the Bahamas region in the Euro...by day 10 is right in the coast of South Carolina.

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Hard to tell with an entity that weak, but after Hispaniola interaction most of the energy transfers to the Bahamas region in the Euro...by day 10 is right in the coast of South Carolina.

 

True... its so weak though its really nothing more than a shear axis in the Bahamas with a remnant broad low-level circulation over the Yucatan as well. 

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Hard to tell with an entity that weak, but after Hispaniola interaction most of the energy transfers to the Bahamas region in the Euro...by day 10 is right in the coast of South Carolina.

FWIW, 15 km FIM 9 quickly merges 97L with wave behind it (as seen on its PW loop), generates a tropical storm, fishes it well East of the US, near miss of Bermuda by a badly sheared 40-45 knot storm at 168 hours.

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Nice fish!

 

97L and friend looks like your best bet for anything chaseable first half of September

 

 

Closer to home, and although it doesn't do much with it, GFS may have a happy pattern for Florida-Carolinas if 97L and its neighbor do develop.  The GFS just has a big sloppy low then, because of my glass half full optimism, I'm ignoring that and just showing 500 mb heights.

post-138-0-18646900-1378163788_thumb.gif

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