weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 I really don't know. Pros and cons for today. I still favor ern CT and RI/SE MA for anything good. A weak wave like that could actually help slow down the eastward progression of the front and it could also strengthen low-level helicity values as well...just something else to keep an eye on I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 The front itself is probably back further west based on surface observations and satellite imagery, but there does appear to be a low in the vicinity of extreme western LI Sound. Winds NNE at BDR and NW at HPN. You head back into eastern PA and some of the dews haven't mixed out yet, still seeing 67's, but winds have shifted west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 I'll be shocked I think if we don't see a slight risk for parts of the area with the 13z update for hail and wind given the trends over the past few hours. The RAP/HRRR have been slightly increasing instability with each run and even with helicity as well. If we can muster 1500-2000 J/KG of MLcape I think we could see a few hailers today at least up to 1.5'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I'll be shocked I think if we don't see a slight risk for parts of the area with the 13z update for hail and wind given the trends over the past few hours. The RAP/HRRR have been slightly increasing instability with each run and even with helicity as well. If we can muster 1500-2000 J/KG of MLcape I think we could see a few hailers today at least up to 1.5'' Who knows with SPC. Maybe a See Text, but it will be interesting once the 12z soundings come out. Looks like I'll be heading east today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 Who knows with SPC. Maybe a See Text, but it will be interesting once the 12z soundings come out. Looks like I'll be heading east today... Yeah I really can't wait to see the 12z soundings either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Here's the OKX sounding from UWYO. SCP's isn't updated yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Hanrahan on board Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan17m Strong storms over Long Island are lifting north. It's going to be another busy day! pic.twitter.com/eCq5kWjw9T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 OKX sounding is very unstable while Albany is sort of meh. Makes me think RI/SE MA perhaps later on...ern CT too I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 It's a day like today where it's too bad they don't do a launch from BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I am pretty excited. Love lapse rates being steep. Already clearing out up here too. Decent shear also. Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 It's a day like today where it's too bad they don't do a launch from BDL. Most of the region near and E and S of HFD is unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 Most of the region near and E and S of HFD is unstable. Yeah it is...would just be nice to get an actual representation, especially of the mid-levels and such but I guess it's no biggie. I just hope I'm not too far west for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Yeah it is...would just be nice to get an actual representation, especially of the mid-levels and such but I guess it's no biggie. I just hope I'm not too far west for anything. You might be on the line. Take those ML CAPES on the SPC site and advect that northeast. That might be the region of activity. It would be nice of that s/w really would dig more to get good height falls. We get a glancing blow from that. But, it is unstable and it may be enough if we can get those 6.5-7C/KM rates in here. Like I said..pros and cons. I bet some people get a good storm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 You might be on the line. Take those ML CAPES on the SPC site and advect that northeast. That might be the region of activity. It would be nice of that s/w really would dig more to get good height falls. We get a glancing blow from that. But, it is unstable and it may be enough if we can get those 6.5-7C/KM rates in here. Like I said..pros and cons. I bet some people get a good storm today. I think we see a few pretty solid storms as well. I'm just hoping we can clear more of this junk out of here b/c if we can get stronger sun we will destabilize very raidly given steepening lapse rates. I'm also hoping dews here will shoot back up into the upper 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 Wow this is pretty crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Shame that LI batch will only be a threat to coastal New London county and S RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Storm motion sure looks quick on the hrrr. Seems that PVD-BOS and SE MA are the crosshairs given that models latest representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Could rock pretty well even on the islands. Suggests that only eastern CT develops good cape FYI CT people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 11z HRRR initiates activity around noon along I-91 and then shifts east. Shows fairly widespread storms for E CT, RI and the eastern third of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 FULL sun here in EMA.. hoping for some fun later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 11z HRRR initiates activity around noon along I-91 and then shifts east. Shows fairly widespread storms for E CT, RI and the eastern third of MA. Where are you getting it from? I only see 10z on this site so far http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t3&run_time=03+Sep+2013+-+10Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Where are you getting it from? I only see 10z on this site so far http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t3&run_time=03+Sep+2013+-+10ZWeatherBell has some very quick updates. SPC now has 5% wind/hail for the eastern half of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Hello to all.. ..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely today across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and the potential for flash flooding are the main threats....The Timeframe appears to be as early midday today through early evening in locations along and east of the Connecticut River Valley as a strong cold front brings an end to the heat and humidity across the region....SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around Noon to 1 PM lasting through early evening.. Another significant flash flood episode affected portions of Southern New England Monday with the hardest hit area being parts of Rhode Island that were impacted significantly on Sunday. The Local Storm Report on flood information and spotter reports are listed below: NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309022206.nwus51.htmlNWS Taunton Public Information Statement:http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309022206.nous41.htmlAt 850 AM, Satellite imagery shows considerable sunshine across much of interior Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut with cloud cover in Eastern New York likely associated with the cold front. If heating for destabilization continues across the region with thunderstorm activity occurring along or ahead of the cloud cover in Eastern New York, sufficient wind shear profiles coupled with the unstable atmosphere will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the area with the potential for strong to damaging winds, hail and the potential for flash flooding. Unlike the last couple of days, thunderstorms should be moving more quickly over the area so the flash flood threat will not be quite as high as past days but if areas that have been hard hit over the last couple days get hit with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, they may flood more quickly because of the past rainfall. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around Noon to 1 PM lasting through early evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today's threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows an Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook: NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.htmlRespectfully Submitted, Robert Macedo (KD1CY)ARES SKYWARN Coordinato Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA909 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013CTZ004-MAZ005>007-012>024-RIZ001>008-031615-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND909 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013Strong to severe storms will be possible today...thunderstorms will develop across eastern and southeasternportions of southern new england towards midday and into theafternoon hours. some of these storms may be strong to severe withthe threat of frequent lightning, damaging winds, largehail, and heavy rain.with heavy rain, there is the additional threat of flash floodingas much of the region has seen around 2 inches of rainfall in thelast 48 hours, with a few locations around 4 to 7 inches,especially in the southwest boston metro area and central rhodeisland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Shame that LI batch will only be a threat to coastal New London county and S RI. Looks like my reverse psychology will get that storm into my area. Have a sneaking suspicion this will be it for the day here. Agree with others, best chances for later are far E CT and into RI and E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 You can see the low nicely with the 9 a.m. surface map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 "heavy" drizzle here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Good look at the current rain amounts http://ow.ly/i/32Xy1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Bright sun outside, will I be too far north from the favorable area? hoping to see some fauxnados later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 12z NAM/13z HRRR continues to like extreme NE CT into much of eastern Mass. NAM wasn't initializing well with the morning activity though, but both models bank on clearing/destabilization helping areas from ORH eastward. FIT was 78 at 10 and Logan already at 80 as of that time! Eastern Mass. special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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