bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 We may put in the low temperature for July early Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The 12z 4k NAM is pretty dry for today but pretty wet for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Getting some heating now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 The vort triggering storms over NE PA should move across the area this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The vort triggering storms over NE PA should move across the area this afternoon. gfsNE_500_avort_006.gif Yeah I'm kind of puzzled why Mt. Holly dropped the FFW for its northern counties. Storms are firing now over NE PA and will move eastward. SPC meso shows that storms will have some decent CAPE and shear profiles to work with today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Yeah I'm kind of puzzled why Mt. Holly dropped the FFW for its northern counties. Storms are firing now over NE PA and will move eastward. SPC meso shows that storms will have some decent CAPE and shear profiles to work with today. Lapse Rates are decent too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The 12z GGEM takes a short wave currently located over Mississippi, sends it off the NE FL coast by Thursday morning and develops it into a wave of low pressure that then tracks straight up the coast brining the entire region rains on Saturday and especially Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 the 12z GFS, the 12z NAM and the GEFS keep it off shore and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 the 12z GFS, the 12z NAM and the GEFS keep it off shore and weak. The 00z Euro has it sitting right off the NJ coast at 96 hours albeit not as strong as what the GGEM is advertising. We'll have to see what the 12z Euro brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Could this low be a tropical system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Could this low be a tropical system? Its not tropical in oragin. It's a short wave that's currently over the deep south that rounds the base of the trough and amplifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 87/74 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 Could this low be a tropical system? The CMC still hasn't upgraded their convective scheme, so it still has a ton of fantasy TC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Its not tropical in oragin. It's a short wave that's currently over the deep south that rounds the base of the trough and amplifies. Oh ok, I'm sure it could still bring in a ton of moisture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The CMC still hasn't upgraded their convective scheme, so it still has a ton of fantasy TC's. Say what you want about the CMC but this isn't a fantasy TC. It's not a TC at all, its a purley non tropical low that rounds the base of the trough and amplifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The CMC still hasn't upgraded their convective scheme, so it still has a ton of fantasy TC's. Euro is the only model showing a coastal storm for Friday and has been showing it for several runs. It's own ensembles are well east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Oh ok, I'm sure it could still bring in a ton of moisture though. Yeah it would have a direct feed to work with from the tropics. The GGEM also takes 98L into SE FL in ten days as a minimal TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Euro is the only model showing a coastal storm for Friday and has been showing it for several runs. It's own ensembles are well east though. The 12z GGEM has this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 Say what you want about the CMC but this isn't a fantasy TC. It's not a TC at all, its a purley non tropical low that rounds the base of the trough and amplifies. But it is the same idea here with it lowering pressures too much due to convective feedback. The low will be weaker than the CMC is showing. More along the line of the Euro and GFS which aren't contaminated by feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The euro continues to struggle in this pattern and has lost the Fri-Sat coastal again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Very heavy rain in Ramsey, no thunder Lasted about 3 minutes, sun coming out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The euro continues to struggle in this pattern and has lost the Fri-Sat coastal again. The data assimilation will kick back in gear come December. They're just taking a little break while only a few 's are looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 The euro continues to struggle in this pattern and has lost the Fri-Sat coastal again. It's just a little east of earlier runs, but it continues with the weak wave inverted trough idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 It's just a little east of earlier runs, but it continues with the weak wave inverted trough idea. North32America_msl_72.gif North32America_msl_120.gif What a huge slug of moisture sitting just offshore. Let's get that onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Thunder now with clear blue sky overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Lol storms look to being north and south of nyc, whats new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Good amount of sun today, temps near 90... 89 here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Lol storms look to being north and south of nyc, whats new They don't like the smog so they go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 18z 4k NAM continues to advertise a wet start at least to Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 The warm SST's off the coast under the long duration ridging look the Atlantic version of an El Nino. 600 dm....no problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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