SACRUS Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 Figured as we start getting into the longer range guidance it would be interesting to track how the 4th of July weather could turn out. Heres' a look back at the last several 4th of July's Year...12......11.....10...09...08....07...06...05...04...03.....02...01....00...99...98...97...96..95...94...93 EWR:..97......92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81...88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97 LGA:...95......88.....98...81...80....73...92...82...83...93.....98...81...84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92 TTN:...95......89.....99...81...80....74...89...84...89...92.....97...82...87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92 JFK:....89.....86...101...83...82....72...86...78...79...92.....99...75...81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96 NYC:...92.....86.....96...79...78....71...87...83...82...92.....96...79...84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95 Update with last years obs. Will add some long range thoughts tonight and track the next 3 weeks. EWR: 88/70 NYC: 84/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 Update with last years obs. Will add some long range thoughts tonight and track the next 3 weeks. EWR: 88/70 NYC: 84/72 July 4th records for KNYC... Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. Precipitation. 102 in 1949....62 in 1978....81 in 2002....55 in 1986....1.76" in 1981 ..99 in 1919....64 in 1941....79 in 1999....57 in 1938....1.20" in 1872 ..98 in 1966....68 in 1909....78 in 1876....58 in 1882....1.20" in 1895 ..97 in 1911....69 in 1895....78 in 1908....58 in 1909....1.19" in 1978 ..97 in 1955....70 in 1882....78 in 1974....58 in 1978....1.11" in 1967 ..96 in 1999....70 in 1954....78 in 1983....58 in 1979....1.06" in 1906 ..96 in 2002....71 in 2007....77 in 2006....59 in 1963....1.00" in 1889 ..96 in 2010 ..96 in 1898. I remember driving home from upstate NY on July 4th 1966...Some roads buckled from the heat wave...1967 was much cooler with heavy am thunder storms...1981 had evening thunder storms...1999 and 2002 were extremely hot...1978 had a max/min of 62/58 with light rain...I was in the poconos and it was in the upper 40's with light rain...1986 had the coolest morning on record...it was cooler in the Poconos where I was that day....1965 had the perfect July 4th weather...90 for the max with no humidity...65 was the morning min...Sunny all day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 2010 had temps of almost 100 degrees and dew points in the 40s. Extremely rare occurrence arohnd here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 2010 had temps of almost 100 degrees and dew points in the 40s. Extremely rare occurrence arohnd here. Lol yea it must have been a N or NW wind for JFK to beat LGA and KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 Lol yea it must have been a N or NW wind for JFK to beat LGA and KNYC It was for the most part. Out here, the winds shifted late in the afternoon to a SW wind, dews were overall higher out here for the entire day. Sea breeze front jacked them up to near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 I've said it before, I'll say it again, NYC subforum may not have the volume of red-tag involvement compared to say NE, but we have some of the best non mets in the whole forum posting here. Bluewave, Isotherm, Uncle, Don S, Sacrus, Earthlight. I get more weather info, facts, forecasts, stats from you guys than anywhere, even a NWS AFD. Keep up great posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 I've said it before, I'll say it again, NYC subforum may not have the volume of red-tag involvement compared to say NE, but we have some of the best non mets in the whole forum posting here. Bluewave, Isotherm, Uncle, Don S, Sacrus, Earthlight. I get more weather info, facts, forecasts, stats from you guys than anywhere, even a NWS AFD. Keep up great posts. Couldn't agree more. Even after reading the official discussions and forecasts from the nws and elsewhere i'm still not sure about a lot of things till I come here to check things out. The others always seem to be a step behind but things here are updated instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2013 Author Share Posted June 20, 2013 Slowly but steadily approaching the 4th of July. Looking way ahead into model lala land. The gfs is the first to offer this 360 hour prog. If such a solution would verify it would be a generally warm day and potentially humid. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif the ECM control run with more of a trough into the east and wold imply temps near normal. Agree with BKviking above - truly great discussions and stats in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Slowly but steadily approaching the 4th of July. Looking way ahead into model lala land. The gfs is the first to offer this 360 hour prog. If such a solution would verify it would be a generally warm day and potentially humid. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif the ECM control run with more of a trough into the east and wold imply temps near normal. Agree with BKviking above - truly great discussions and stats in this forum. accuwx has 90's for the 4th...it could be right...stopped clock comes to mind...seven of the nine hottest July 4ths had a good or historic next winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Right now, I'm not seeing it being hot, July 4th. The MJO going through phases 7/8/1, support a trough over the East. Too early to say, what our rain/sunshine chances will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 accuwx has 90's for the 4th...it could be right...stopped clock comes to mind...seven of the nine hottest July 4ths had a good or historic next winter... Accuwx had 75-80s for memorial weekend.. and we know what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2013 Author Share Posted June 20, 2013 Accuwx had 75-80s for memorial weekend.. and we know what happened Sun/mon of memorial day weekend were in the mid 70s to 80 and many spots. It will be interestnig to follow the guidance us today for the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Accuwx had 75-80s for memorial weekend.. and we know what happened accuwx has mid 80's for the 4th today...mid 70's tomorrow?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2013 Author Share Posted June 20, 2013 accuwx has mid 80's for the 4th today...mid 70's tomorrow?... flurries? I suspect based on the latest overnight guidance, if its not raining we'll be warmer than normal but nothing too extreme. 85 - 90 range. The core of the heat looks to stay west the first week of July but the we are in an overall warm pattern. heat returns 4th of july weekend perhaps, on/around the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 flurries? I suspect based on the latest overnight guidance, if its not raining we'll be warmer than normal but nothing too extreme. 85 - 90 range. The core of the heat looks to stay west the first week of July but the we are in an overall warm pattern. heat returns 4th of july weekend perhaps, on/around the 6th. I'll be in Florida at that time and it looks like it will be spotty wet down there...I should be away the first two weeks of July...I hope it rains a lot...it will keep temperatures down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2013 Author Share Posted June 20, 2013 I'll be in Florida at that time and it looks like it will be spotty wet down there...I should be away the first two weeks of July...I hope it rains a lot...it will keep temperatures down... Unc, Ill be in Sanibel the 10- 14. I think you go down around the same area. Anyway Latest guidance argues for the warmer/humid but active pattern early July (including the 4th). GFS warmer by the 4th with a large expansive ridge with core of heat into the west but coming out in spikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 Coming up within the 12 day range on Jul 4th. Overnight runs continue with mega rockies ridge trough into the Lakes and ballooning western atlantic ridge pushing along the coast with rising heights and humidity by 7/1. Still way out there but such a scenario would argue for warm/humid weather (Bermuda Blues) and continues tstorm and rain chances. Longer range some hints ridge builds strong into the east by the weekend holidday weekend on/around the 6th. We'll see wheretodays guidance takes us n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 I don't want to pick on accuwx but their forecasted high for the 4th now is 81...up from 79 for yesterday...I'm more intrested in the weather for the 30th to the 1st along the I95 corridor...I checked their monthly forecast for Tampa and it doesn't have any 90 degree days in sight...it's mostly cloudy with t showers and temps in the 80's...Where i go is know as the Sun coast...Most of the daily pop up showers develop about five miles inland leaving the coast Sunny for the most part...it gets most of its rain from storms that are moving in off the Gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 First week of July continues to look cooler than normal IMO. My guess for July 4th in NYC right now going conservative on the cool would be a 80F high, though I can see it being in the 70s if its wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 Overnight guidance continues the warm/southerly tropical flow aided by a expanding Western Atlantic Ridge. As we have been trakcing it looks like an overall warm pattern 85 - 90 but with plenty of rain chances. Reminds me of a florida pattern. Hopig the 4th avoids the rain and anything is scattered should it rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 July 4th now within 240 hours and the warm/tropical pattern remains on most guidance. The gfs and ecm would imply scattered storms with some downpours, GGEM is wet all day with TS approaching from the south. I think we'l see Miami style weather all next week with plenty of storms and some clouds but overall very warm and humid. My call fwiw in this range for July 4th is scattered storms temps in the mid - upper 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 Last night and today's guidance is consistent with building back the WAR into the east coast and raising heights 7/1 - 7/5. This will produce a southerly/tropical flow with warm temps, humid conditons and persistent shower/storm threats which could yield heavy totals. With that July 4th is looking warm/humid with chance for storms which cuodl produce downpurs. Partly-mostly cludy/hazy conditions hights 85 - 90 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Today's 12z euro run had a high of 76-80 degrees for July 3rd and 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 4th of July continues to look warm/humid with scattered storm potential. Highs generally in the 85 - 90 range - pending on cloud cover. Very humid. Will try and hone in on storm potential as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 4th of July continues to look warm/humid with scattered storm potential. Highs generally in the 85 - 90 range - pending on cloud cover. Very humid. Will try and hone in on storm potential as we get closer. Not the euro. 0z run has a high of 24.5C and rain for almost the whole day. .50"-.75" with most of the rain from 8am to 8pm. Highs of 75-77 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Not the euro. 0z run has a high of 24.5c and rain for almost the whole day. .50"-.75" with most of the rain from 8am to 8pm. Highs of 75-77 degrees. Hopefully that won't pan out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 NYC July 4th weather over the last 20 years: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 I suspect we are in more of scattered showers than washout. The WAR is flexing its muscle 3/4th and this should allow for some warm/humid conditions. I still suspect we're more in the mid/upper 80s with HI much higher and scattered storms/clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 I suspect we are in more of scattered showers than washout. The WAR is flexing its muscle 3/4th and this should allow for some warm/humid conditions. I still suspect we're more in the mid/upper 80s with HI much higher and scattered storms/clouds. I hope you are right, but the euro for 3 straight runs has shown 75-80 degree highs with widespread rain from 8am to 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 I hope you are right, but the euro for 3 straight runs has shown 75-80 degree highs with widespread rain from 8am to 8pm. We'll see how it works out - I hadnt taken a close look at last nights euro was it more convective/storms or just a widespread rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.