East Pacific Hurricane Season 2013

[Ed Lizard]

Does this include the SPAC?

 

 

Probably

[Yellow Evan]

Probably

Makes sense since 80-81 SPAC went majorless since the calender year of 1981 began. 1981 was likely the previous reccord holder.

[HurricaneJosh]

For mainland MX, yes. For Baja landfalls, less so.

 

Argualy the most important EPAC storm of all time took a NNNW track:

The Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959 outranks Liza in terms of intensity, damage, and fatalities. (It had the October-boomerang track.)

With only a couple of exceptions, all major (Cat-3+) landfalls in the EPAC have been October boomerangs.

Baja Califoria Sur is sort of like our North Carolina: it's hurricane-prone, but it mostly gets a lot of crap (Cat 1s/2s). It rarely gets majors-- thus I tend not to focus on it when I'm thinking about where to get the big game. (That having been said, I chased a great Cat 2 there a few years ago, Jimena 2009.)

 

classic mainland EPAC landfall is something like Tico 83/Waldo 85/Paine 85 or for southern strikes, Winifred 92

What do you mean by a "classic" landfall? Tico is a good example, but Waldo wasn't a major, and Paine was only a Cat 1. (Paine was in 1986, by the way.) There've been much better mainland specimens-- including:

Lane 1006 (Cat 3)

Kenna 2002 (Cat 4)

Madeline 1976 (Cat 4)

Liza 1976 (Cat 3)

Olivia 1975 (Cat 3)

Great Mexico 1959 (Cat 5)

No. 10 1957 (Cat 4)

[Amped]

Probably

 

And the 10 day forecast show no sign to that streak ending.

[GaWx]

The Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959 outranks Liza in terms of intensity, damage, and fatalities. (It had the October-boomerang track.)

With only a couple of exceptions, all major (Cat-3+) landfalls in the EPAC have been October boomerangs.

Baja Califoria Sur is sort of like our North Carolina: it's hurricane-prone, but it mostly gets a lot of crap (Cat 1s/2s). It rarely gets majors-- thus I tend not to focus on it when I'm thinking about where to get the big game. (That having been said, I chased a great Cat 2 there a few years ago, Jimena 2009.)

 

What do you mean by a "classic" landfall? Tico is a good example, but Waldo wasn't a major, and Paine was only a Cat 1. (Paine was in 1986, by the way.) There've been much better mainland specimens-- including:

Lane 1006 (Cat 3)

Kenna 2002 (Cat 4)

Madeline 1976 (Cat 4)

Liza 1976 (Cat 3)

Olivia 1975 (Cat 3)

Great Mexico 1959 (Cat 5)

No. 10 1957 (Cat 4)

 

From Josh last year:

 

"Following are all Cat-3+ landfalls on Mexico's Pacific coast since 1949-- showing year, name, date, state (where the center crossed the coast), and intensity. Note that only Kiko 1989 and Lane 2006 were not in October. Also notice that most of the really intense ones hit quite late in the month:

1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)

1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)

1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)

1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt***)

1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)

1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)

2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)"

 

So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27

 

As Josh mentioned, the real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 

 

 Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino.

--------------------------------

From me last year: "Also, I've found per Wiki three sig. hurricanes (any of which could have been a major at landfall) during the 1800's hitting between 10/27 and 11/1 on the MX coast anywhere from Mazatian to Manzanillo:

Nov. 1, 1839: Mazatlan, Sinaloa

Nov. 1, 1840: San Blas, Nayarit

Oct. 27, 1881: Manzanillo, Colima; 950 mb/110 knots..so this was a major; Per Wiki, 'This hurricane totally destroyed the city.'"          

 

 So, lateness is key!! Also, Mazatlan in Sinaloa seems to be a magnet for late season major hits!

 

[Yellow Evan]

The Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959 outranks Liza in terms of intensity, damage, and fatalities. (It had the October-boomerang track.)

With only a couple of exceptions, all major (Cat-3+) landfalls in the EPAC have been October boomerangs.

Baja Califoria Sur is sort of like our North Carolina: it's hurricane-prone, but it mostly gets a lot of crap (Cat 1s/2s). It rarely gets majors-- thus I tend not to focus on it when I'm thinking about where to get the big game. (That having been said, I chased a great Cat 2 there a few years ago, Jimena 2009.)

 

What do you mean by a "classic" landfall? Tico is a good example, but Waldo wasn't a major, and Paine was only a Cat 1. (Paine was in 1986, by the way.) There've been much better mainland specimens-- including:

Lane 1006 (Cat 3)

Kenna 2002 (Cat 4)

Madeline 1976 (Cat 4)

Liza 1976 (Cat 3)

Olivia 1975 (Cat 3)

Great Mexico 1959 (Cat 5)

No. 10 1957 (Cat 4)

Regarding 59 Mexico vs. Liza, that's quite debateable. As for Baja, I like the track most of the Baja systems, I love how it sticks out but is narrow. Yea, Jimena 09 is up there as of my favorite EPAC systems. As for a "classic" landfall, I meant storm's that formed south of MX and then hooked west and moved inland. Yea, Paine was in 1986 not 1985 just a typo.

[HurricaneJosh]

Regarding 59 Mexico vs. Liza, that's quite debateable. As for Baja, I like the track most of the Baja systems, I love how it sticks out but is narrow. Yea, Jimena 09 is up there as of my favorite EPAC systems. As for a "classic" landfall, I meant storm's that formed south of MX and then hooked west and moved inland. Yea, Paine was in 1986 not 1985 just a typo.

How is 1959 vs. Liza debatable? Based on what metric? 1959 wins on intensity, fatalities, and damage.

I dread Baja systems-- it's tough chase turf. But I dug Jimena, too-- I agree with you, it was a cool storm.

[Yellow Evan]

From Josh last year:

 

"Following are all Cat-3+ landfalls on Mexico's Pacific coast since 1949-- showing year, name, date, state (where the center crossed the coast), and intensity. Note that only Kiko 1989 and Lane 2006 were not in October. Also notice that most of the really intense ones hit quite late in the month:

1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)

1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)

1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)

1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt***)

1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)

1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)

2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)"

 

So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27

 

As Josh mentioned, the real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 

 

 Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino.

--------------------------------

From me last year: "Also, I've found per Wiki three sig. hurricanes (any of which could have been a major at landfall) during the 1800's hitting between 10/27 and 11/1 on the MX coast anywhere from Mazatian to Manzanillo:

Nov. 1, 1839: Mazatlan, Sinaloa

Nov. 1, 1840: San Blas, Nayarit

Oct. 27, 1881: Manzanillo, Colima; 950 mb/110 knots..so this was a major; Per Wiki, 'This hurricane totally destroyed the city.'"          

 

 So, lateness is key!! Also, Mazatlan in Sinaloa seems to be a magnet for late season major hits!

during July and into part of August, troughs rarely dig deep, hecne killing the chances of a recurve. In October, trough did much depper, so more recurves. They happened more often in El Nino since 1) storm's are stronger 2) troughs dig deeper

but to be honest, wheather or not a storm hits as a major really does not matter, it is the affects of human lifes and property that does. Olivia 67 did not do much damage even though it was a near-Cat 4 and Virgil 92 did very little damage as a strong Cat 2. On the other hand, the second most deadly EPAC system of all time (Paul 82) did most of its damage as a TD (though it was almost major at its landfall in Baja Califonria Sur and Sinaloa) znd did a moderate amount of impact there.

If you wanna be technical, Iselle 90 hit Soccoro Island as a major, the only storm to make landfall on the island itself as a major. FYI, Iniki 92 hit Hawaii as a mager. Though Keli 84, John 94, and Kenoi 93 all came close, no major hurricane has made landfall on Jonhston Atoll.

[HurricaneJosh]

during July and into part of August, troughs rarely dig deep, hecne killing the chances of a recurve. In October, trough did much depper, so more recurves. They happened more often in El Nino since 1) storm's are stronger 2) troughs dig deeper

Agreed.

 

but to be honest, wheather or not a storm hits as a major really does not matter, it is the affects of human lifes and property that does. Olivia 67 did not do much damage even though it was a near-Cat 4 and Virgil 92 did very little damage as a strong Cat 2. On the other hand, the second most deadly EPAC system of all time (Paul 82) did most of its damage as a TD (though it was almost major at its landfall in Baja Califonria Sur and Sinaloa) znd did a moderate amount of impact there.

Re: what matters, speak for yourself. I personally am a tropical-cyclone enthusiast-- that's why I post here and that's why I chase hurricanes. I don't have a general fetish for disasters. Given this, for me, it's really about the landfall intensity-- that is what defines the "quality" of the event. The fact that 1,000 died in mudslides prior to hurricane stage does not make a system more interesting to me.

If your criteria for defining "interesting" are different, so be it. But the fact remains that major (Cat-3+) landfalls in the EPAC are primarily Oct boomerangs.

 

If you wanna be technical, Iselle 90 hit Soccoro Island as a major, the only storm to make landfall on the island itself as a major. FYI, Iniki 92 hit Hawaii as a mager. Though Keli 84, John 94, and Kenoi 93 all came close, no major hurricane has made landfall on Jonhston Atoll.

OK, sure. I don't think I said anything to suggest otherwise. Iniki was a different basin, though (CPAC, not EPAC).

Re: HI in general, I consider it a fake hurricane zone. People think of it as hurricane country but direct hits from majors (or even Cat 1s) basically never happen. In light of this, Iniki-- a direct hit from a Cat 4-- was a truly incredible event.

[GaWx]

during July and into part of August, troughs rarely dig deep, hecne killing the chances of a recurve. In October, trough did much depper, so more recurves. They happened more often in El Nino since 1) storm's are stronger 2) troughs dig deeper

but to be honest, wheather or not a storm hits as a major really does not matter, it is the affects of human lifes and property that does. Olivia 67 did not do much damage even though it was a near-Cat 4 and Virgil 92 did very little damage as a strong Cat 2. On the other hand, the second most deadly EPAC system of all time (Paul 82) did most of its damage as a TD (though it was almost major at its landfall in Baja Califonria Sur and Sinaloa) znd did a moderate amount of impact there.

If you wanna be technical, Iselle 90 hit Soccoro Island as a major, the only storm to make landfall on the island itself as a major. FYI, Iniki 92 hit Hawaii as a mager. Though Keli 84, John 94, and Kenoi 93 all came close, no major hurricane has made landfall on Jonhston Atoll.

 

 Good points. In that way, the strengths can be very deceiving as far as casualties and damage are concerned. However, for chasers, strength is obviously very important.

[HurricaneJosh]

Good points. In that way, the strengths can be very deceiving as far as casualties and damage are concerned. However, for chasers, strength is obviously very important.

Yeah, I don't think anyone disputes that a disorganized depression can kill thousands. We all know this. But the genesis of this discuss was Re: when the major landfalls occur in the EPAC, not when the most people die from mudslides and freshwater flooding.

[Yellow Evan]

Good points. In that way, the strengths can be very deceiving as far as casualties and damage are concerned. However, for chasers, strength is obviously very important.

 

Given that this is a chasing forum mostly, I understand the bias towards majors that make landfall. Me personally, I like the major's best, not for chasing, but because of their beauty.

Agreed.

 

Re: what matters, speak for yourself. I personally am a tropical-cyclone enthusiast-- that's why I post here and that's why I chase hurricanes. I don't have a general fetish for disasters. Given this, for me, it's really about the landfall intensity-- that is what defines the "quality" of the event. The fact that 1,000 died in mudslides prior to hurricane stage does not make a system more interesting to me.

If you're criteria for defining "interesting" are different, so be it. But the fact remains that major (Cat-3+) landfalls in the EPAC are primarily Oct boomerangs.

 

OK, sure. I don't think I said anything to suggest otherwise. Iniki was a different basin, though (CPAC, not EPAC).

Re: HI in general, I consider it a fake hurricane zone. People think of it as hurricane country but direct hits from majors (or even Cat 1s) basically never happen. In light of this, Iniki-- a direct hit from a Cat 4-- was a truly incredible event.

Regarding notability, I just seem to take higher account deaths/damages than you. Yea, most EPAC landfalls major's (or even hurricane) occur in October, if not September.

To me, I don't find Paul 82 very intresting either, it was a moonsonal mess when it was over Central America and took days for it to organize. As I just said, I find majors hurricanes the best and the EPAC has had plenty of them over the years. I just prefer them to stay at sea so no one gets affected.

As for Iniki, it's a once and a liftime event.

[HurricaneJosh]

I just prefer them to stay at sea so no one gets affected.

Well bless yer li'l heart.

[Yellow Evan]

Also, another point I'd like to bring up regarding EPAC major's is the location of landfalls. It seems that Mazaltan and Manzanillo are the most at risk for such event. Acapulco is harder to hit as a major likely because storm's that hit there do not has as much time over open water as storms than hit Mazanillo and Mazaltan.

As for pre-HURDAT storm's, not much is known about them online. Their wikipedia entires are small though I will be expanding them eventually. However, trough dugging up of a few old documents I found, it's proable that there have been several majors that made landfall. The ony one that is really somewhat confirmed is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1943_Mazatlán_hurricane

BTW, I find it quite ironic that we are talking about EPAC major's while we've yet to have major this season.

[HurricaneJosh]

also, another point I'd like to bring up is the location of landfalls. It seems that Mazaltan and Manzanillo are the most at risk for such event. Acapulco is harder to hit as a major likely because storm's that hit there do not has as much time over open water as storms than hit Mazanillo and Mazaltan.

As for pre-HURDAT storm's, not much is known about them online. Their wikipedia entires are small though I will be expanding them eventually. However, trough dugging up of a few old documents I found, it's proable that there have been several majors that made landfall. The ony one that is really somewhat confirmed is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1943_Mazatlán_hurricane

BTW, I find it quite ironic that we are talking about EPAC major's while we've yet to have major this season.

 

The Mexican state of Sinaloa-- which includes the city of Mazatlan-- gets by far the most major-hurricane action, compared to the other states.

 

It's funny you mentioned the 1943 Mazatlan hurricane, because I just discovered that gem. Seems like it was a solid Cat 3, at least-- maybe a 4-- depending on where that observatory was in relation to the center.  It seems almost all of the info about the event comes from a small snippet in this MWR article:  http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/1943.pdf

It's another example of a major Oct landfall, by the way.  

P.S. Not ironic at all. Talking about past majors is basically how we spend our time here when nothing is happening.

[HurricaneJosh]

From Josh last year:

 

"Following are all Cat-3+ landfalls on Mexico's Pacific coast since 1949-- showing year, name, date, state (where the center crossed the coast), and intensity. Note that only Kiko 1989 and Lane 2006 were not in October. Also notice that most of the really intense ones hit quite late in the month:

1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)

1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)

1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)

1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt***)

1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)

1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)

2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)"

 

So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27

 

As Josh mentioned, the real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 

 

 Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino.

--------------------------------

From me last year: "Also, I've found per Wiki three sig. hurricanes (any of which could have been a major at landfall) during the 1800's hitting between 10/27 and 11/1 on the MX coast anywhere from Mazatian to Manzanillo:

Nov. 1, 1839: Mazatlan, Sinaloa

Nov. 1, 1840: San Blas, Nayarit

Oct. 27, 1881: Manzanillo, Colima; 950 mb/110 knots..so this was a major; Per Wiki, 'This hurricane totally destroyed the city.'"          

 

 So, lateness is key!! Also, Mazatlan in Sinaloa seems to be a magnet for late season major hits!

 

 

Cool, research, Larry.  Do you have a link to that Wikipedia article Re: the 19th-century MX landfalls?  Would like to see it.  The NHC's best track goes back to 1949, and so it's cool to find out about these older cyclones.  I wonder how they derived such a specific intensity estimate for the 1881 storm.

[Yellow Evan]

Cool, research, Larry.  Do you have a link to that Wikipedia article Re: the 19th-century MX landfalls?  Would like to see it.  The NHC's best track goes back to 1949, and so it's cool to find out about these older cyclones.  I wonder how they derived such a specific intensity estimate for the 1881 storm.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pacific_hurricanes_before_1900

 

1881 was actually a double wamy

 

Lsource link is broken, though I know that the source exists (I've seen it behing paywalls).

[GaWx]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pacific_hurricanes_before_1900

1881 was actually a double wamy

Lsource link is broken, though I know that the source exists (I've seen it behing paywalls).

Thanks for noting that. Yeah, 1881 was incredible due to the double whammy. I didn't put the earlier 1881 hit in my list because it was at least mid-Oct. by then and we were only focusing on late hits. However, that Sep. 1881 was another big hit.

Sep.-Oct. 1881 was during a neutral negative ENSO phase. So, not being in an oncoming El Nino by no means means that MX can't still get hit hard. El Nino just seems to enhance that chance somewhat. As of this time, I don't have any ENSO info for 1839-40.

[Yellow Evan]

Thanks for noting that. Yeah, 1881 was incredible due to the double whammy. I didn't put the earlier 1881 hit in my list because it was at least mid-Oct. by then and we were only focusing on late hits. However, that Sep. 1881 was another big hit.

Sep.-Oct. 1881 was during a neutral negative ENSO phase. So, not being in an oncoming El Nino by no means means that MX can't still get hit hard. El Nino just seems to enhance that chance somewhat. As of this time, I don't have any ENSO info for 1839-40.

 

1881 likely is not much diffrent from 1976 PHS (two Cat 4's in very similar areas to the 1881 major's). But I would not trust ENSO data that far back. There were also quite a few landfalls EPAC storm's in the 1920's.

 

Not a major, but Cabo San Lucas got hit by a Cat 1 in 1941, nearly destroying the city.

[GaWx]

1881 likely is not much diffrent from 1976 PHS (two Cat 4's in very similar areas to the 1881 major's). But I would not trust ENSO data that far back. There were also quite a few landfalls EPAC storm's in the 1920's.

 

Not a major, but Cabo San Lucas got hit by a Cat 1 in 1941, nearly destroying the city.

 

1941 was during El Nino per monthly 3.4 data. The solidly negative SOI's then support that. 1881 was neutral negative per both 3.4 monthly and JMA tables. So, there's absolutely no indication of it having been El Nino SSTwise since SST anomalies weren't even positive. However, SOI's were actually strongly negative interestingly enough. So, the atmospheric pattern may have been Nino-like despite the cool SST's in 3.4 and the JMA areas.

[Yellow Evan]

1941 was during El Nino per monthly 3.4 data. The solidly negative SOI's then support that. 1881 was neutral negative per both 3.4 monthly and JMA tables. So, there's absolutely no indication of it having been El Nino SSTwise since SST anomalies weren't even positive. However, SOI's were actually strongly negative interestingly enough. So, the atmospheric pattern may have been Nino-like despite the cool SST's in 3.4 and the JMA areas.

 

How reliable is the monthly 3.4 data back then?

[jordanwx]

How reliable is the monthly 3.4 data back then?

I'm curious about this as well...

[GaWx]

How reliable is the monthly 3.4 data back then?

 

 Based on cross referencing with JMA SST data as well as monthly SOI's, I'd say it is pretty decent. I've found just about as strong a positive correlation with JMA SST's and negative correlation with SOI's as in the modern data.

[Yellow Evan]

 Based on cross referencing with JMA SST data as well as monthly SOI's, I'd say it is pretty decent. I've found just about as strong a positive correlation with JMA SST's and negative correlation with SOI's as in the modern data.

A little surprisied, giving the the JMA is not exactly the best agency.

[Yellow Evan]

Manuel is here, BTW.

[Ed Lizard]

Manuel is here, BTW.

Manuel has been getting plenty of discussion, just not here, in the Chase and Ingrid threads, because he is messing with the hot new girl on the block.

[Yellow Evan]

Up to 60 knots.

[wxmx]

Manuel remnants look very healthy...near back to life now.

[tmagan]

Manuel remnants look very healthy...near back to life now.

A rare system that will spend a significant amount of time over the Gulf of California.

[wxmx]

Manuel has resucitated...