Yellow Evan Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 98E at 60% in TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 98E at 60% in TWO. Oh hey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 31, 2013 Author Share Posted August 31, 2013 98E at 60% in TWO. It's TD 11E now. Doesn't look too exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 In the long range, the 12Z GFS shows a cyclone threatening the Baja somewhere around Day 11-13. The basic pattern of stuff forming close to the MX coast and riding up in the general direction of the Peninsula seems to persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Nice looking TD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Hottest TD ever? Looks like good ole fashioned explosive intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 11E is a good example of how a robust convective maxima can easily alter ambiguous upper level flow. In this case, the system was experiencing some northerly shear, and as long as the convection remained pretty weak, it was going to continue to fight that shear, until it reached cooler waters. Instead we see a huge burst of convection, resulting in widespread anticyclonic outflow and now the storm is likely to become much stronger in this storm created lower shear environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Lolz wtf just happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 31, 2013 Author Share Posted August 31, 2013 That eye-like feature has disappeared just as abruptly as it appeared. Let's see if it returns this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Nice looking TD Hottest TD ever? Lolz wtf just happened Very weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Eyewall was the real deal apparently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Am I the only one that doesn't thing this thing went gangbusters in the matter of a few hours? If we take a look at the CIMSS ADT, the final T# reached tropical storm strength around 12z and steadily intensified to T3.1/47 kt by the time NHC upgraded at 21z. I'd venture to say it attained tropical storm strength even before that though. 09z seems like a good starting point: If not then, certainly by 11z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Am I the only one that doesn't thing this thing went gangbusters in the matter of a few hours? If we take a look at the CIMSS ADT, the final T# reached tropical storm strength around 12z and steadily intensified to T3.1/47 kt by the time NHC upgraded at 21z. I'd venture to say it attained tropical storm strength even before that though. 09z seems like a good starting point: If not then, certainly by 11z. Yes, and that's probably something that will be corrected for the best track by the time the TCR is released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Kiko may not a hurricane after all. Looks kinda dead IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Yeah, I'm wondering if they'll upgrade today's intensities in postanalysis. That MW shot really screams "65 kt". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Yeah, I'm wondering if they'll upgrade today's intensities in postanalysis. That MW shot really screams "65 kt". It probaly briefly was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 How is this not a hurricane???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 How is this not a hurricane???? To my knowledge the 85GHz only captures the middle and upper level portions of the deeper convection. So its possible it was only a well defined mid-level eye. The 37GHz microwave is said to capture the low-level convective structure better, and that imagery shows a less organized system. Still though, I think a case can be made to upgrade this to a hurricane post-analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Tropical storm for SoCal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Doubt that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Tropical storm for SoCal? I noticed that, too. It has happened, most-recently in 1939: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm An interesting thing about this summer in SoCal has been the humidity, which has been much higher than usual. We're getting a lot of moisture from these tropical systems down in Baja California, and it's been muggy and gross. I was in the Desert yesterday, and the air was thick and tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 I noticed that, too. It has happened, most-recently in 1939: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm An interesting thing about this summer in SoCal has been the humidity, which has been much higher than usual. We're getting a lot of moisture from these tropical systems down in Baja California, and it's been muggy and gross. I was in the Desert yesterday, and the air was thick and tropical. You make it sound like a bad thing. We get a tropical airmass in coastal SoCal so freaking rarely it drives me insane. Bring on the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 You make it sound like a bad thing. We get a tropical airmass in coastal SoCal so freaking rarely it drives me insane. Bring on the moisture. It's an annoyance during the week, when I'm dressed nicely for business and sweating constantly. I live in L.A., not Baton Rouge, and I expect the weather to be reliably boring and comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 The EPAC has seen several hurricanes which has helped drive the ACE index to ~60% of normal, but man, even it's boring in this basin w/o any major hurricanes. Even freakier considering conditions seem to be pretty favorable overall. 2013: the year without a 100kt cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I noticed that, too. It has happened, most-recently in 1939: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm An interesting thing about this summer in SoCal has been the humidity, which has been much higher than usual. We're getting a lot of moisture from these tropical systems down in Baja California, and it's been muggy and gross. I was in the Desert yesterday, and the air was thick and tropical. As a NV resident, I like it. as a mix up. Though most of the rain is moonsoon related. BTW, Norman 78 hit as a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 Ivo, Juliette, and Kiko all propagated much more to the north than to the west, all either directly affecting or at least coming close to land. Although still not completely unusual for this time of year, this is more typical of early or late season systems in the E Pac. Looks like 99E, should it develop, will follow the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Ivo, Juliette, and Kiko all propagated much more to the north than to the west, all either directly affecting or at least coming close to land. Although still not completely unusual for this time of year, this is more typical of early or late season systems in the E Pac. Looks like 99E, should it develop, will follow the trend. I feel the classic late-season track is a wide, boomeranging motion-- initially heading away from (or parallel to) the coast, then turning back sharply and accelerating toward the coast at a right angle (a la Kenna 2002-- below). While the cyclones have been closer to land than usual this August, the track trajectories-- the way they're basically moving parallel to the coast-- are pretty typical for this time of year, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 I feel the classic late-season track is a wide, boomeranging motion-- initially heading away from (or parallel to) the coast, then turning back sharply and accelerating toward the coast at a right angle (a la Kenna 2002-- below). While the cyclones have been closer to land than usual this August, the track trajectories-- the way they're basically moving parallel to the coast-- are pretty typical for this time of year, I think. Yes, certainly the boomerang path is classic late season and is extremely rare before late Sep / Oct. The NNW motion we've seen this Aug/Sep isn't in itself unusual, but I think the fact that: we've seen quite a few of them in a row, they're all close to land, and we haven't seen the classic east-west movers except for ones that are developing unusually far west, all adds up to an unusual couple of months. P.S. TS Lorena is currently approaching the southern tip of Baja from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 28storms.com Another record just broke today: This is now the latest we've gone without a major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere since reliable records for the East Pacific began in 1971. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I feel the classic late-season track is a wide, boomeranging motion-- initially heading away from (or parallel to) the coast, then turning back sharply and accelerating toward the coast at a right angle (a la Kenna 2002-- below). While the cyclones have been closer to land than usual this August, the track trajectories-- the way they're basically moving parallel to the coast-- are pretty typical for this time of year, I think. kenna2002.gif For mainland MX, yes. For Baja landfalls, less so. Argubaly the most important EPAC storm of all time took a NNNW track: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Liza_1976_track.png 28storms.com Another record just broke today: This is now the latest we've gone without a major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere since reliable records for the East Pacific began in 1971. Does this include the SPAC? Yes, certainly the boomerang path is classic late season and is extremely rare before late Sep / Oct. The NNW motion we've seen this Aug/Sep isn't in itself unusual, but I think the fact that: we've seen quite a few of them in a row, they're all close to land, and we haven't seen the classic east-west movers except for ones that are developing unusually far west, all adds up to an unusual couple of months. P.S. TS Lorena is currently approaching the southern tip of Baja from the south. Eh, I think Josh got it right on the head at least for the mainalnd classic mainland EPAC landfall is something like Tico 83/Waldo 85/Paine 85 or for southern strikes, Winifred 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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