icebreaker5221 Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 TD 9E has formed, should become 'Ivo'. Not exactly the tingle-worthy forecast we were hoping for a couple of days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 TD 9E has formed, should become 'Ivo'. Not exactly the tingle-worthy forecast we were hoping for a couple of days ago 145110W5_NL_sm.gif The one to follow on various globals in about 8 days should be, judging from model trends, stronger, and Los Cabos are within the GEFS ensemble spray. 996 mb or stronger, or it seems about half the GEFS see a hurricane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 The one to follow on various globals in about 8 days should be, judging from model trends, stronger, and Los Cabos are within the GEFS ensemble spray. 996 mb or stronger, or it seems about half the GEFS see a hurricane... Some CMC/GFS runs have brought this to a sub-980 mbar intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 TD9 still looks like two distinct systems to me and I look forward to watching it try to get itself together. Pretty huge circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Sorry for the snow map lol, but this shows the rainfall GFS is showing for the Mojave desert through 120hrs. It looks like it is funneling moisture up the Gulf of CA and then up the CO river into the Mojave, hence the Mojave gets the Jackpot for the first time ever. We'll see if it happens. GFS has shown it for multiple runs now and has support from the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 TD9 still looks like two distinct systems to me and I look forward to watching it try to get itself together. Pretty huge circulation. It's getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 It's getting there. Yeah that plume of convection on the west side pushed the rest of the convection out of the way in the western half. Meanwhile on the east side, what had looked like its own coherent circulation is now degenerating into another ball of thunderstorms. It's a pretty unusual evolution for a TC, isn't it? Usually if there's two circulations in play you'll see one eat the other but it's almost like they're going toe-to-toe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Now Ivo, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 2 sigma active CCKW phase passing East Pac.. up next is Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Yeah that plume of convection on the west side pushed the rest of the convection out of the way in the western half. Meanwhile on the east side, what had looked like its own coherent circulation is now degenerating into another ball of thunderstorms. It's a pretty unusual evolution for a TC, isn't it? Usually if there's two circulations in play you'll see one eat the other but it's almost like they're going toe-to-toe. GFS a few days ago was showing that on repeated runs, two distinct 850 mb vort maxes in very close proximity and sort of Fujiwara-ing each other. The GFS ensembles like the wave I was wishcasting to develop in the SW Caribbean a few days ago, as CIMSS MIMIC-TPW showed a most excellent wave that just came in a little too low, with its center running very near the coast of South America. I am assuming a 996 mb storm on a half resolution ensemble means the perturbation is predicting a hurricane. An aside on Ivo, 6Z GFS does wonders for the Salton Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 That two (remnant) TC's might be affecting my hometown while I'm up in SF is killing me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Baja under TS warnings. Ivo=40 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 That two (remnant) TC's might be affecting my hometown while I'm up in SF is killing me right now. Dude, c'mon-- don't sweat it. What are ya gonna "miss"-- some added marine layer and higher humidity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Dude, c'mon-- don't sweat it. What are ya gonna "miss"-- some added marine layer and higher humidity? It's nice getting rain from a tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Dude, c'mon-- don't sweat it. What are ya gonna "miss"-- some added marine layer and higher humidity? As much as Irene was a huge pain in the sack for our house, neighbors, and many citizens, I enjoyed the environment it created. The constant wind, the rain, the duration of the event. It was interesting. Sandy too. I know you have been through some wicked storms but here in Jersey... and California of course... we don't get to see this stuff much and I try to appreciate it for what it is, even if it's not much in the grand scheme of weather. Of course I enjoyed running around in the rain from an early age so I am probably just brain damaged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 It's nice getting rain from a tropical cyclone. I suppose. But I just don't think Jim needs to beat himself up over a tropical shower. As much as Irene was a huge pain in the sack for our house, neighbors, and many citizens, I enjoyed the environment it created. The constant wind, the rain, the duration of the event. It was interesting. Sandy too. I know you have been through some wicked storms but here in Jersey... and California of course... we don't get to see this stuff much and I try to appreciate it for what it is, even if it's not much in the grand scheme of weather. Of course I enjoyed running around in the rain from an early age so I am probably just brain damaged I guess all of us here are a little weird, right? I mean, we hang here on this board, talking about these nerdy topics endlessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 I suppose. But I just don't think Jim needs to beat himself up over a tropical shower. I'm the craziest weenie when it comes to silly things like rain. Product of living in SoCal for so long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 I suppose. But I just don't think Jim needs to beat himself up over a tropical shower. I guess all of us here are a little weird, right? I mean, we hang here on this board, talking about these nerdy topics endlessly. I have not gotten rain from a TC in 5 years. Now, back to Ivo. It's 40 knts stiil, but likely to weaken. All eyes will then move on the wave off Mexico, which has a chance to become the first MH of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Ivo down to TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Ivo down to TD. Deservedly. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Deservedly. Next! 10%/70% AOI is the next candidate for TC formation. Possible major IMO. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 That two (remnant) TC's might be affecting my hometown while I'm up in SF is killing me right now. Same boat. I'm from San Diego, currently at Mammoth Mountain. Can't believe I'm missing it, even if it's just remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Same boat. I'm from San Diego, currently at Mammoth Mountain. Can't believe I'm missing it, even if it's just remnants. Ouch, man I feel for you. Hopefully some of those storms on the periphery make it up the Sierra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geonerd Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 What's left of Ivo has spun off what appears to be a tightly rotating anticyclonic 'whorl' of thunderstorms over the Gulf of California. It's hard to say for sure, but the IR cloud tops suggest that this new circulation is spinning quite nicely. (Who's got a nice zoomable sat image link to share?) In any event, there's plenty of convection going on. At the moment the complex is heading straight north toward Hermosillo and Tucson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 I wonder where Steve (aslkahuna) is. Among many other things, he's our resident expert on the impact that EPAC tropical systems have on the American Desert Southwest, He's literally an almanac of all the potential scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I'm getting most cloudy skies right now. I'm expecting some rain shortly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 GFS op forecast looks interesting in the upcoming week... http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/u850/total/eastpac.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 28, 2013 Author Share Posted August 28, 2013 I can't believe how badly the East Pac is struggling too. Ivo was a complete flop, and 96E still does not have a closed circulation. A week ago, some model projections showed that 96E could perhaps have been a major hurricane by now, or at least a solid cat 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 28, 2013 Author Share Posted August 28, 2013 Well, we now have TS Juliette. TS warnings issued for S Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 New Invest 98- whenever I see an invest way out in the Pacific, I always think back to all the 1992 Iniki home movies I have watched on TV. Hawaii Iniki Cradle, I term I just invented, rather active. Still attached to the ITCZ, Neither 97 or 98E appear to be Hawai'i threats, but at least it is something. The formation of Fernand might have ruined what could have been a hurricane and possibly Baja threat, judging from the models that didn't see the Fernand wave developing, and crossed the wave cleanly and at lower latitude across Central America, rather than through the mountains of Mexico, with almost all the GEF members suggesting a sub 1000 mb Juliette passing near the Baja, many below 996 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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