Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[dta1984]

Been snowing for a while today but doesn't seem like its accumulated much until the past hour or so. Pretty good burst of moderate snow now

[OHweather]

Ok, there was a definite trend back west with the 0z models after a bit of a scare this afternoon. The models have us in (but near the western edge) of moderate to heavy synoptic snow Tuesday-Tuesday night, and the possible lake effect snow behind the storm Wednesday-Wednesday night is also interesting.

 

Right now the NAM is the only model that doesn't show more than 3" for NE Ohio and it trended NW a bit with its 0z run. The 0z GFS continued it's trend west for the forth run in a row and is a solid 3-5" for much of NE OH of synoptic snow. The Canadian held for I want to say the 3rd run in a row with half a foot of synoptic snow east of I-77 give or take a few miles. The UKMET continues its trend of bombing a sub 980mb low over western New England by Wednesday evening and appeared to show something like 10" of snow near the PA boarder and probably 4-8" of synoptic snow for the Cleveland-Akron corridor. The 0z Euro trended back west after the 12z run went east and show about 4-5" for Cleveland, 7" for Akron and 10" for Youngstown. Just to help liven up the post, here are a few snow/precip maps:

 

UKMET total precip (in millimeters)

 

 

Canadian snowfall liquid equivalent (also in millimeters)

 

 

0z GFS snow:

 

 

So, there is pretty good agreement on at least a few inches of synoptic snow as far west as Cleveland. The one concern is we are still near the western edge of the precip shield on the models and it is a sharp cutoff...the one good piece of news is the models trended west this evening, the energy is fully sampled, and really we are 36 hours from the start to the event. If Monday's 12z runs hold I'd imagine we'll be golden.

 

NOW, onto the lake effect. Models plunge 850mb temps to -12 to -15C give or take a bit Wednesday into Wednesday night on a more northerly flow. Some models pull the storm out faster (such as the GFS) but there appears to be at least SOME window for a decent northerly or NNWrly flow lake effect event Wednesday and possibly into Wednesday night (really, every model not called the GFS suggests LES could continue at a decent clip into Wednesday night). While this event won't have extreme instability to work with, with a decent storm to our NE we could have a much moister atmosphere than the last couple events, and Lake Huron may also help somewhat. In the 0z Euro text for CLE (which suggests about 4" of synoptic snow there) you can see that 700mb humidities remain high at times into Wednesday evening as 850mb temps begin to crash:

TUE 18Z 26-NOV   0.5    -4.6    1019      65      97    0.01     553     538    WED 00Z 27-NOV  -1.0    -4.3    1014      92      98    0.13     551     539    WED 06Z 27-NOV  -0.5    -6.8    1009      86      99    0.17     545     538    WED 12Z 27-NOV  -0.8    -8.3    1008      84      40    0.05     538     532    WED 18Z 27-NOV  -1.7   -10.5    1008      72      23    0.02     531     525    THU 00Z 28-NOV  -2.9   -13.2    1012      74      99    0.02     527     517    THU 06Z 28-NOV  -4.9   -14.6    1018      73      37    0.01     532     519    THU 12Z 28-NOV  -5.9   -15.1    1024      68      39    0.00     540     521    

Also, when glancing at a NAM forecast skew-t for Wednesday evening, although the NAM pulls the storm away faster than say the UKMET, CMC, Euro (really all the foreign models), it still shows a decent lake effect setup. Note that although the lapse rates aren't extreme they are enough, there is good moisture up to about 700mb, the cap is up near 700mb, and the dendrite growth zone extends from 875mb-725mb which is decently thick. In addition, the winds are fairly well aligned (not perfect but should be good enough):

 

So at this point, while there is still some time for an eastward shift with the synoptic snow, things overall look good. The models are running out of time to shift east and shifted west this evening with the synoptic snow, and the lake effect setup is intriguing. I'll be getting home late this evening, just in time.

[zero26800]

Getting interesting now. Looking forward to see how it shakes out with LES included.

[Trent]

Since there's already a thread for tomorrow night's snow storm we can probably keep discussion related to that in there.

Lake Erie temperatures continue to nose dive, the buoy near the Erie Islands is reporting a water temp of 40.6. At this rate we'll have ice in a week or two along the shore and western basin.

[NEOH]

Ok, there was a definite trend back west with the 0z models after a bit of a scare this afternoon. The models have us in (but near the western edge) of moderate to heavy synoptic snow Tuesday-Tuesday night, and the possible lake effect snow behind the storm Wednesday-Wednesday night is also interesting.

 

Right now the NAM is the only model that doesn't show more than 3" for NE Ohio and it trended NW a bit with its 0z run. The 0z GFS continued it's trend west for the forth run in a row and is a solid 3-5" for much of NE OH of synoptic snow. The Canadian held for I want to say the 3rd run in a row with half a foot of synoptic snow east of I-77 give or take a few miles. The UKMET continues its trend of bombing a sub 980mb low over western New England by Wednesday evening and appeared to show something like 10" of snow near the PA boarder and probably 4-8" of synoptic snow for the Cleveland-Akron corridor. The 0z Euro trended back west after the 12z run went east and show about 4-5" for Cleveland, 7" for Akron and 10" for Youngstown. Just to help liven up the post, here are a few snow/precip maps:

 

UKMET total precip (in millimeters)

 

 

Canadian snowfall liquid equivalent (also in millimeters)

 

 

0z GFS snow:

 

 

So, there is pretty good agreement on at least a few inches of synoptic snow as far west as Cleveland. The one concern is we are still near the western edge of the precip shield on the models and it is a sharp cutoff...the one good piece of news is the models trended west this evening, the energy is fully sampled, and really we are 36 hours from the start to the event. If Monday's 12z runs hold I'd imagine we'll be golden.

 

NOW, onto the lake effect. Models plunge 850mb temps to -12 to -15C give or take a bit Wednesday into Wednesday night on a more northerly flow. Some models pull the storm out faster (such as the GFS) but there appears to be at least SOME window for a decent northerly or NNWrly flow lake effect event Wednesday and possibly into Wednesday night (really, every model not called the GFS suggests LES could continue at a decent clip into Wednesday night). While this event won't have extreme instability to work with, with a decent storm to our NE we could have a much moister atmosphere than the last couple events, and Lake Huron may also help somewhat. In the 0z Euro text for CLE (which suggests about 4" of synoptic snow there) you can see that 700mb humidities remain high at times into Wednesday evening as 850mb temps begin to crash:

TUE 18Z 26-NOV   0.5    -4.6    1019      65      97    0.01     553     538    WED 00Z 27-NOV  -1.0    -4.3    1014      92      98    0.13     551     539    WED 06Z 27-NOV  -0.5    -6.8    1009      86      99    0.17     545     538    WED 12Z 27-NOV  -0.8    -8.3    1008      84      40    0.05     538     532    WED 18Z 27-NOV  -1.7   -10.5    1008      72      23    0.02     531     525    THU 00Z 28-NOV  -2.9   -13.2    1012      74      99    0.02     527     517    THU 06Z 28-NOV  -4.9   -14.6    1018      73      37    0.01     532     519    THU 12Z 28-NOV  -5.9   -15.1    1024      68      39    0.00     540     521    

Also, when glancing at a NAM forecast skew-t for Wednesday evening, although the NAM pulls the storm away faster than say the UKMET, CMC, Euro (really all the foreign models), it still shows a decent lake effect setup. Note that although the lapse rates aren't extreme they are enough, there is good moisture up to about 700mb, the cap is up near 700mb, and the dendrite growth zone extends from 875mb-725mb which is decently thick. In addition, the winds are fairly well aligned (not perfect but should be good enough):

 

So at this point, while there is still some time for an eastward shift with the synoptic snow, things overall look good. The models are running out of time to shift east and shifted west this evening with the synoptic snow, and the lake effect setup is intriguing. I'll be getting home late this evening, just in time.

 

Nice analysis as usual. You've been all over the this storm threat. I had written it off as I figured it would be much further east. It will be interesting to see how the storm plays out... seems like a complicated set-up. Hopefully the 12z models hold with the more western solutions. 3-5" of synoptic snow in November would seem like a big deal... widespread snows in this area, particularly in November seem rare.

 

This is a great set-up for lake enhanced snow behind the storm with deep moisture in place and the cyclonic flow. Typically we see "blobs" of snow rotate in from the NE behind the storm. If only the storm would slow down a bit...

[Trent]

This is a great set-up for lake enhanced snow behind the storm with deep moisture in place and the cyclonic flow. Typically we see "blobs" of snow rotate in from the NE behind the storm. If only the storm would slow down a bit...

Yeah. This looks like a classic enhancement event. The main show will probably be when the synoptic transitions to the enhancement. You'll see the typical blob of snow light up on the radar from Lorain on east. These enhancement events tend to linger and then turn into a final last gasp of Lake Effect. Odds of a white Thanksgiving look pretty good at this point.

[dta1984]

Just saw the hi Res Nam on another forum. ..and wow! I believe it includes les or enhancement.

[NEOH]

Yeah. This looks like a classic enhancement event. The main show will probably be when the synoptic transitions to the enhancement. You'll see the typical blob of snow light up on the radar from Lorain on east. These enhancement events tend to linger and then turn into a final last gasp of Lake Effect. Odds of a white Thanksgiving look pretty good at this point.

 

Yeah, almost a lock. There is snow on the ground out here which probably won't melt much today or tomorrow. Feels and looks more like December or January out there.

[OHweather]

Nice analysis as usual. You've been all over the this storm threat. I had written it off as I figured it would be much further east. It will be interesting to see how the storm plays out... seems like a complicated set-up. Hopefully the 12z models hold with the more western solutions. 3-5" of synoptic snow in November would seem like a big deal... widespread snows in this area, particularly in November seem rare.

 

This is a great set-up for lake enhanced snow behind the storm with deep moisture in place and the cyclonic flow. Typically we see "blobs" of snow rotate in from the NE behind the storm. If only the storm would slow down a bit...

I almost threw in the towel yesterday when the 12z Euro went way east, that usually isn't good. But I don't want to discuss the synoptic side of things too much here since as Trent mentioned there is a thread for it.

 

The period of possible enhancement looks to be at least 18 hours so the favored higher terrain locations from like Lorain-Medina points east will probably add several more inches to whatever we see synoptically. I have a hard time seeing CLE not expanding the watch westward to at least Cleveland and Akron this afternoon unless the 12z models (which they haven't thus far) just completely jump east with the synoptic side of things...in which case they could probably just wait and eventually issue LES advisories for Wednesday.

[Chinook]

I think you guys could see some sneaky heavy snow in Ohio. After all, the GFS shows about 4" for areas east of Columbus, so anywhere east of Columbus there could be surprise areas over 6". Of course, the rain-to-snow changeover usually is not a good sign.

[NEOH]

Didn't see any red flags in the 12z model runs. Hard to tell the difference with the latest euro as the ewall graphics are awful. Hopefully OHWeather will share the text data.

 

I'm guessing CLE will bump the WSW another county westward this afternoon.

[Trent]

The Euro looks like it spits out 0.42" for CLE through Wednesday afternoon. Not bad considering that's west of town.

NAM held steady this run as well.

I'm guessing CLE will post advisory for Cuyahoga County with 3-6". They could probably wait til the morning, but considering it's one of the busiest travel days of year, they will probably issue something soon.

[NEOH]

The Euro looks like it spits out 0.42" for CLE through Wednesday afternoon. Not bad considering that's west of town.

NAM held steady this run as well.

I'm guessing CLE will post advisory for Cuyahoga County with 3-6". They could probably wait til the morning, but considering it's one of the busiest travel days of year, they will probably issue something soon.

 

Thanks, Trent. That's really good considering amounts will steadily increase to the east. I see CLE now has a warning for Geauga county. Surprised nothing has been issued for cuyahoga and lake.

[OHweather]

I can't believe CLE hasn't issued anything for Cuyahoga or Summit. Looking good for 3-5" synoptic Cuyahoga and 4-6" Summit through Wednesday morning plus another 18 or so hours of a good lake enhancement. The hills in southern/eastern Cuyahoga and probably northern Summit are going to give the 8" 24 hour warning criteria a good workout I think. It would be nice if they could balance issuing advisories for 1-3" lake effect events and not issuing at the very least advisories when advisory criteria almost looks like a slam dunk for both counties.

[Trent]

Riding a very thin line for Cleveland. If this goes 15 miles east, we get nothing, 15 miles west and we get 6".

The storm total map from CLE this morning is interesting ... Basically 6-8 for Cuyahoga with totals rapidly decreasing west and rapidly increasing east.

Sadly. I doubt any "northwest trend" will be in our favor this go around.

I'll say CLE ends up with under 3" total for this including any enhancement and Post-storm LES.

[Trent]

[NEOH]

Riding a very thin line for Cleveland. If this goes 15 miles east, we get nothing, 15 miles west and we get 6".

The storm total map from CLE this morning is interesting ... Basically 6-8 for Cuyahoga with totals rapidly decreasing west and rapidly increasing east.

Sadly. I doubt any "northwest trend" will be in our favor this go around.

I'll say CLE ends up with under 3" total for this including any enhancement and Post-storm LES.

 

Overnight model runs seemed to have nudged to the east a bit. High bust potential with this storm (either way). We will have to rely heavily on lake enhancement to reach those totals. Yeah, a slight adjustment to the NW would be nice, but that probably wouldn't be good from a temp standpoint.

 

I'm looking forward to OHWeather's forecast. I would consider anything more that 6" IMBY a win.. despite being in the 10-14" zone.

[OHweather]

Well with the models pulling their typical "well it's the morning of the storm, boy we really screwed you, ok we're shifting back to the east now" I can't be terribly optimistic. The southern stream energy with all of the moisture is running behind the northern stream energy. Maybe 2" of synoptic snow for Cleveland and 3" for Akron while Youngstown gets about 6" through late tonight. The lake enhanced still looks ok, could easily be another 2-4" on southeastern Cuyahoga/northeastern Summit/Portage and possibly an additional 3-6" for parts of Geauga and inland Ashtabula, with little in the lower elevations and farther west...so NEOH you may still get something near half a foot over the course of something like 30 hours which I suppose isn't too bad.

[NEOH]

Well with the models pulling their typical "well it's the morning of the storm, boy we really screwed you, ok we're shifting back to the east now" I can't be terribly optimistic. The southern stream energy with all of the moisture is running behind the northern stream energy. Maybe 2" of synoptic snow for Cleveland and 3" for Akron while Youngstown gets about 6" through late tonight. The lake enhanced still looks ok, could easily be another 2-4" on southeastern Cuyahoga/northeastern Summit/Portage and possibly an additional 3-6" for parts of Geauga and inland Ashtabula, with little in the lower elevations and farther west...so NEOH you may still get something near half a foot over the course of something like 30 hours which I suppose isn't too bad.

 

Model trends certainly aren't good. We'll just have to see how far NW the defo band sets up... but again, the trend is not our friend.  This is a complicated set-up so I'm sure there are still some surprises in store.

[dta1984]

Updated snowfall map from Cle. I think its updated every few hours

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/gis/images/CLE_Snow.png

[OHweather]

Model trends certainly aren't good. We'll just have to see how far NW the defo band sets up... but again, the trend is not our friend. This is a complicated set-up so I'm sure there are still some surprises in store.

I'm thinking if there are surprises it's with the lake effect snow that starts early tomorrow and not the synoyic. An 18-24 hour of les with possible Huron help and decent synoptic moisture still in place can be a good thing.

[Chinook]

I am primarily interested in the snow in Columbus and Canton, OH. Looks like both areas are getting some snow now.

 

woohoo, new winter precip color table for GR3.

 

anybody have the shapefile and style-file for Canada for GRLevel3?  I used to have the province outlines (province.shp and province.sty) but I don't anymore

 

 

 

[NEOH]

I'm thinking if there are surprises it's with the lake effect snow that starts early tomorrow and not the synoyic. An 18-24 hour of les with possible Huron help and decent synoptic moisture still in place can be a good thing.

Hopefully the lake enhancement delivers... the ingredients are there. Light snow has started in Chagrin. Time to sit back and see what happens.

[OHweather]

Hopefully the lake enhancement delivers... the ingredients are there. Light snow has started in Chagrin. Time to sit back and see what happens.

It is snowing and sticking in Reminderville with a visibility down to around a mile...very nice to see finally.

[CranberryWX]

Visiting family in the Girard, OH area....it's been snowing most of the day, but late afternoon started coming down at a good clip...big quarter sized flakes. The roads got covered fast and are treacherous. I measured 4" in the grass.

[dta1984]

Been a steady small flake type of snow. 2" or so by looking. I'll go take a measurement in a few. Hows the lake effect looking for tomorrow?

[IWXwx]

I am primarily interested in the snow in Columbus and Canton, OH. Looks like both areas are getting some snow now.

 

woohoo, new winter precip color table for GR3.

 

anybody have the shapefile and style-file for Canada for GRLevel3?  I used to have the province outlines (province.shp and province.sty) but I don't anymore

 

2013_11_26_1924z_ILN.png

 

OT, but where'd you get the color table? GRLevelStuff website is offline.

[NEOH]

Visiting family in the Girard, OH area....it's been snowing most of the day, but late afternoon started coming down at a good clip...big quarter sized flakes. The roads got covered fast and are treacherous. I measured 4" in the grass.

Enjoy the snow. That's an impressive total so far. About 2" so far here. Steady light snow continues.

[OHweather]

Well 3.2" here thus far in Reminderville...my friend in Green (near CAK) has something like 7". It ended up being an ok snow event east of I-77 I guess, although it looked better a day out.

 

As for the LES, I like what I see upstream here at 1:20AM. Pretty intense bands over Lakes Michigan/Huron, and through much of the morning the flow will support a possible Huron connection possibly as far west as Cleveland for a time. There's a decent area of what appears to be synoptic snow showers breaking out over SE MI into western Ontario and that moisture should be affecting us by the rush hour. Later in the day the flow goes more NW but looking at some RAP soundings things remain pretty moist and unstable below 800mb, so I'd expect snow showers to continue in the higher terrain (although any possible heavier snows with a Huron connection would shift east) well into tomorrow evening before things slowly die. There could be a few more inches for a lot of areas. Unfortunately I had to make a map for the website I forecast for when I got in at a bit before 1AM so since I have a map I suppose I'll post it here. The gradient on the northern edge of the hillier terrain may be sharper but that was a pain to draw so I broad brushed a tad.

 

I will say I really think CLE is too low on this as well as local media. This would not be the first time lake enhancement after a synoptic snow has been significantly underforecasted. The NMM spits out a decent area of .25-.5" liquid in the higher terrain with a small bullseye of 0.75"+ liquid over Geauga County with the lake enhanced snow, so the potential is certainly there. If all goes well (IE more dry air doesn't sneak in than forecasted) some areas would probably exceed these numbers on a local scale.

 

[Trent]

Looks like enhancement is trying to get underway around Lorain and the hills southwest of town. That should expand rapidly in the next few hours.

Very picturesque snowfall, but only about 2" here in Mayfield Heights. Congrats Akron-Canton, looks like spots cracked the 6" mark.