OHweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Heh, I miss those 3" in two hour bursts down here. It did actually flurry here a bit ago. Looks like the trough certainly didn't disappoint up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 CLE seems to be set on a general 4-6" event over the weekend. Not sure I would be throwing amounts out just yet given recent model performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 CLE seems to be set on a general 4-6" event over the weekend. Not sure I would be throwing amounts out just yet given recent model performance. I'd probably go 4-8" just because higher snow ratios could bump up totals over 6" but it's a safe bet I'd think for a general total. Take into consideration too that this system is a Colorado low and usually they do not go too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'd probably go 4-8" just because higher snow ratios could bump up totals over 6" but it's a safe bet I'd think for a general total. Take into consideration too that this system is a Colorado low and usually they do not go too far south That's my concern. Seems like the past 2 storms have verified weaker and further SE than what was modeled just 24 hrs prior. I'll feel a lot more confident after today 12z runs. I fell for some of teaser runs with the past 2 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah. After the last two storms came in much weaker and drier I'm not expecting more than 3-5" out of this. I'm sure there'll be a few NAM runs with 0.75" before it hits. Considering the Euro has been pretty consistent with about .40" liquid, 3-5" seems like the way to go. We sit in a pretty good spot to at least get something though. This would really have to falter for this to be a complete swing and miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'd be pretty happy with 3-5. Anything but rain or warm temps that melt the current snow. Still looking like some lake effect after the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah. After the last two storms came in much weaker and drier I'm not expecting more than 3-5" out of this. I'm sure there'll be a few NAM runs with 0.75" before it hits. Considering the Euro has been pretty consistent with about .40" liquid, 3-5" seems like the way to go. We sit in a pretty good spot to at least get something though. This would really have to falter for this to be a complete swing and miss. Jinxed for sure . But seriously, we are in a pretty good spot. Moisture will be the key with this storm, and a slow decay before transferring energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 OHWeather... any chance you have the Euro text output for CLE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Sure why not SAT 06Z 14-DEC -2.7 -8.3 1025 69 93 0.01 553 533 SAT 12Z 14-DEC -3.2 -6.8 1023 87 97 0.10 551 533 SAT 18Z 14-DEC -0.7 -4.5 1017 90 98 0.13 548 534 SUN 00Z 15-DEC -0.2 -3.6 1012 96 99 0.19 546 536 SUN 06Z 15-DEC -0.6 -5.3 1011 97 62 0.08 542 533 SUN 12Z 15-DEC -4.2 -10.6 1016 87 20 0.01 542 530 SUN 18Z 15-DEC -4.9 -13.5 1017 79 66 0.01 540 527 MON 00Z 16-DEC -6.9 -12.5 1019 80 98 0.01 539 525 MON 06Z 16-DEC -9.0 -15.9 1022 79 36 0.02 540 524 MON 12Z 16-DEC -11.4 -13.4 1025 80 60 0.00 542 524 MON 18Z 16-DEC -5.5 -11.7 1025 61 99 0.01 542 523 0.51" of liquid of synoptic snow through 1AM Sunday, then high 700mb RH's and cold enough temperatures for LES through Monday morning. I haven't looked at wind direction much for this event but the Euro at least suggests some half decent LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Sure why not SAT 06Z 14-DEC -2.7 -8.3 1025 69 93 0.01 553 533 SAT 12Z 14-DEC -3.2 -6.8 1023 87 97 0.10 551 533 SAT 18Z 14-DEC -0.7 -4.5 1017 90 98 0.13 548 534 SUN 00Z 15-DEC -0.2 -3.6 1012 96 99 0.19 546 536 SUN 06Z 15-DEC -0.6 -5.3 1011 97 62 0.08 542 533 SUN 12Z 15-DEC -4.2 -10.6 1016 87 20 0.01 542 530 SUN 18Z 15-DEC -4.9 -13.5 1017 79 66 0.01 540 527 MON 00Z 16-DEC -6.9 -12.5 1019 80 98 0.01 539 525 MON 06Z 16-DEC -9.0 -15.9 1022 79 36 0.02 540 524 MON 12Z 16-DEC -11.4 -13.4 1025 80 60 0.00 542 524 MON 18Z 16-DEC -5.5 -11.7 1025 61 99 0.01 542 523 0.51" of liquid of synoptic snow through 1AM Sunday, then high 700mb RH's and cold enough temperatures for LES through Monday morning. I haven't looked at wind direction much for this event but the Euro at least suggests some half decent LES. Thank you sir. Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't see any reason to not jump in with a 3-6" call for all of us from the synoptic snow. Looking at a number of things on the 18z NAM here I think there could be the potential for some bursts of moderate to heavy snow that push some areas a tad over 6". The DGZ will be between 150-200mb so snow growth will be good. With surface temps near freezing don't want to go insane with possible with ratios, but even a 13:1 ratio would yield around 6.5" for CLE on the Euro's 0.51" liquid. The NAM is showing a decently strong low to mid level jet nosing into southern OH Saturday morning with pretty good higher theta-e advection going on. That could produce some corridors of moderate to heavy snow if it verifies. The 18z NAM shows the best lift with this low-mid level WAA closer to I-70 but it's something to watch if things trend a tad bit farther north. The NAM also shows parts of OH (again a bit south of us) in the right-entrance portion of a departing jet streak and left-exit portion of an incoming jet streak late Friday night well into Saturday. This would provide good upper level lift and also support bursts of heavier snow. Again right now the NAM shows these possible mechanisms for heavy snow a bit to our south, so the safe call is 12-18 hours of light to possibly moderate snow with 3-5"/3-6" type amounts for northern OH. But it wouldn't shock me if there's a corridor of 6-9" type amounts between like US 30 and I-70. We'll have to see how that plays out. The GFS/NAM bring the winds around to the WNW by Sunday and suggest a half decent LES Sunday into Sunday night...the Euro waits to bring the winds around until late Sunday night and suggests some LES into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Good model trends last night/this morning. Not sure what the euro showed precip wise but the low in southern ohio appeared stronger. A general 4-8" looks likely... perhaps on the higher range of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro backed off a bit. It was showing about 0.40" last night, down from about 0.50". Some of the hi Res models were showing a bit of a snow hole around northeast Ohio, so that's one potential negative for tomorrow. I'll still ride a 3-5" call for here. With a potential couple inch LES bonus afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro backed off a bit. It was showing about 0.40" last night, down from about 0.50". Some of the hi Res models were showing a bit of a snow hole around northeast Ohio, so that's one potential negative for tomorrow. I'll still ride a 3-5" call for here. With a potential couple inch LES bonus afterwards. Winds will be from the east/southeast... so that snowhole is definitely a possibility. If we watch the snowhole slowly fill 3-5" seems reasonable, but If its a quick start I think 4-8" will verify. Surprised the euro backed off given the stronger low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Was 4-6 for the entire area. Moved the eastern counties up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think it's interesting that CLE opted not to go with a warning. It seems like Lake Effect Snow warnings are issued left and right for the most narrow of situations and isolated strung out events, yet this will be the first high impact snow event for all areas and regions of the season and no warning. Also keep in mind that CLE hasn't had a 6" snowstorm since the 2010/2011 snow season. Not too often you see a forecast text of 4-8" and an advisory. 345 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 7 INCHES. zone forecast: Saturday Night: Snow in the evening...then snow showers after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Lows in the lower 20s. East winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Right now see no reason to deviate from 3-5" locally 6"+ of synoptic snow. 24 hour warning criteria is 8"+ so technically this is an advisory criteria event, but I agree that some of their LES warnings are issued for lower impact events than what we'll see tomorrow. There could be a window of decent lake effect Sunday evening-Monday morning with banding into parts of Cuyahoga County on a well aligned WNW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just eyeballing looks like an inch fell last night. I'm under the heavy returns on radar but the snow isn't all that heavy. Big flakes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah, I woke up and saw it snowing and was surprised to see the radar. It should be dumping snow with those returns. NAM and GFS are trying to bring the thermals just warm enough for a brief switch to sleet or some mixed rain later this afternoon. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah, I woke up and saw it snowing and was surprised to see the radar. It should be dumping snow with those returns. NAM and GFS are trying to bring the thermals just warm enough for a brief switch to sleet or some mixed rain later this afternoon. Figures. Close to 2 inches after measuring. Radar is filling in nicely again. Still a long way to go to the 5-7" range may verify. Strange to have such light snow with those returns. I think any mixing will stay to the south hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 At 10AM had 1.6" in Reminderville...at 10:30 when I got to Bedford Heights there was at least 2" with another half inch or so since then with a steady but light snow continuing to fall. Radar shows over snow over IN that may make it in by late afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Definitely picking up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Best snow if the day moving in... bordering on heavy. Nice returns to the SW as well. Looks like a definite NW trend for change. Hopefully the dry slot stays south of the lakeshore counties. Should rip for the next few hours at least. 3.2" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Around 3.5 inches in kent and it's staying heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Around 3.5 inches in kent and it's staying heavy Hopefully we can stay in the snow but the dry slot is approaching. Not to mention the WTOD which looks to come much closer than I thought. The low needs to start heading due east about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hopefully we can stay in the snow but the dry slot is approaching. Not to mention the WTOD which looks to come much closer than I thought. The low needs to start heading due east about now. I know right that dry slot is looming. Hopefully the backside is promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 These rates appear to be pushing 1" an hour in Bedford Heights based on how quickly it's burying cars in the parking lot. Pretty nice, probably will be a few new inches on my car when I leave this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think the storm definitely delivered and if this dry slot stays south and somehow the backside fills im then it will be well above what CLE was calling for. But that's just my wishful thinking. I can be happy with the 4-5" out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks to be trying to keep it going. Dry slot nearing in kent and it's still heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Precip has stopped for the moment. Went and cleaned the driveway and measured 4.5" in a few spots. The driveway was clean before this snow started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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