Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[Shsg Falls]

A high of 63° in Chagrin Falls on Sunday and we had several hours of sunshine.  Temperatures were still above 50° at sunset.  It was nice even with the over-saturated ground.

[NEOH]

Nice forecast OHWeather. Hopefully the trough can push far enough south to get the band into the primary snowbelt. Seems like trough's always take a lot longer than expected to push south. It's been tough to get a decent WNW flow lately. BUF's meso models keep everything north of here... not sure if that has to do with the initialization with too much ice cover. Speaking of that... I'm sure the ice took a beating, but it stayed pretty cold west of here so if anything the ice spread out as opposed to melting.

[NEOH]

Just took a look at the Bufkt output data. The winds will be shifting throughout this event... hard to get excited about high amounts. Looks like we can a nice window for LES tonight, then again tomorrow morning before ridging pushes is. NAM output keeps winds pretty much westerly throughout - 270/280 later afternoon/tonight, then again tomorrow late moring. While the GFS brings winds around to 290 this afternoon/evening, then again tomorrow morning. 

 

One thing to keep an eye on is that if the band has an upstream connection (which is likely with this flow), they seem to anchor in place.

[Trent]

The lighthouse cam near Toledo shows chunks of ice in Erie. I bet the models are over initializing the cover.

 

It's a shame that the warm front boundary was so sharp over the weekend. If we could have had 60's creeping up to near Monroe, instead of just south of Toledo, that lake ice would have been toast. 

 

Even the 3' amounts in the Buffalo south towns melted over the weekend as temps soared into the 60s there too.

 

When all is said and done, this December might not come any snowier than normal for CLE. Currently, CLE sits at 11.5" for the month. Normal for December is 14.1". If you were to believe the Euro, CLE won't be tacking on more than 3" through the year end. We'll see what these clippers do and if any substantial LES forms to finish the month with average/above average snowfall at CLE.

[NEOH]

The lighthouse cam near Toledo shows chunks of ice in Erie. I bet the models are over initializing the cover.

 

It's a shame that the warm front boundary was so sharp over the weekend. If we could have had 60's creeping up to near Monroe, instead of just south of Toledo, that lake ice would have been toast. 

 

Even the 3' amounts in the Buffalo south towns melted over the weekend as temps soared into the 60s there too.

 

When all is said and done, this December might not come any snowier than normal for CLE. Currently, CLE sits at 11.5" for the month. Normal for December is 14.1". If you were to believe the Euro, CLE won't be tacking on more than 3" through the year end. We'll see what these clippers do and if any substantial LES forms to finish the month with average/above average snowfall at CLE.

 

That about says it all. Worst possible scenario... which I joked about happening, then it actually did. I'd bet there's a lot more open water than what the models are initializing. Now the hard part... getting a primary band into the snowbelt.

[zero26800]

That about says it all. Worst possible scenario... which I joked about happening, then it actually did. I'd bet there's a lot more open water than what the models are initializing. Now the hard part... getting a primary band into the snowbelt.

Even though everything keeps setting up to the east into pa =(

It would be nice to get some decent les considering the cold air we have had all december until the lake started to freeze. Now we have a chance with most of the ice broken up/gone. 

[OHweather]

Nice forecast OHWeather. Hopefully the trough can push far enough south to get the band into the primary snowbelt. Seems like trough's always take a lot longer than expected to push south. It's been tough to get a decent WNW flow lately. BUF's meso models keep everything north of here... not sure if that has to do with the initialization with too much ice cover. Speaking of that... I'm sure the ice took a beating, but it stayed pretty cold west of here so if anything the ice spread out as opposed to melting.

It's unfortunately tough to know what the ice did when we really just have one web cam at the western end of the lake at our disposal.

 

The models show the upstream band favoring snow over Erie County PA, possibly spreading into Ashtabula and Chautauqua at times tonight. This is probably where the biggest dumping of snow will occur.

 

Outside of this band some of the hi-res models (with the notable exception of the BUF mesoscale models) try to show lake enhanced snow trying to form into Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula Counties later tonight into tomorrow, with everything then shifting southwest tomorrow morning with most models showing the winds going WNW if not NW at 850mb. West of Ashtabula some of the models seem to then dissipate things rather quickly despite decent mid-level moisture hanging around until tomorrow evening, that may be because they initialized with a frozen western basin.

 

This event is frustrating to try to forecast to say the least. I feel pretty confident in an Erie County dump with Ashtabula possibly seeing some at times...farther west it may only be a 2-4" or so event in Lake and Geauga Counties but it may also be more if we indeed see the convergence swing southwest tomorrow morning and if the models are indeed wrong in completely eradicating the LES rather quickly tomorrow west of Ashtabula.

 

Edit to add:

 

There's just no way that there is enough ice all the way to Lorain to actually cool the air over the lake to the point where it's colder than the upstream air over Detroit. So I am thinking the models are underdone on the western edge of things:

[NEOH]

Yeah... definitely BS. Here's the latest from Toledo lighthouse. There may be ice flows but certainly enough open water to work with. Ridging seems to pushing in from the SW... let's hope its not too strong.

[OHweather]

Yeah... definitely BS. Here's the latest from Toledo lighthouse. There may be ice flows but certainly enough open water to work with. Ridging seems to pushing in from the SW... let's hope its not too strong.

Heh I was about to post that. Unfortunately doesn't look like we'll get a good MODIS shot today to see how much ice there really is or isn't, but the Toledo lighthouse cam is definitely encouraging. The hi-res models really like Erie County into eastern Ashtabula. Most only show 2-5" type amounts over Geauga with lesser amounts into Cuyahoga. The RPM which appeared to initialized with less ice does manage to drop 4-8" over most of Geauga so we'll see

 

The models are showing some really interesting things happening with the band of snow over Ashtabula-Erie Counties tomorrow morning as the trough moves through.

[Trent]

The AFD today is a prime example of CLE always propping up the Lake Effect Warnings:

 

 

NOT SURE IF 6 INCHES WILL BE EXCEEDED IN 12 HOURS OR 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS BUT THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKELY ENOUGH FOR A LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR ERIE CO PA WITH ADVISORIES SURROUNDING THE COUNTY.

 

Not saying that there won't be warning type snows with this band, but it's just interesting how in this case warnings go up with lots of uncertainty for a very localized and relatively low population area. Contrast this to last Saturday's snowfall event for the entire region. You had model consensus for days of a significant snow impact for millions of people. While borderline warning criteria (some areas did achieve this), the event was downplayed to advisory criteria despite being a likely candidate for the season's most significant snowstorm. Yet, the threat of an isolated lake effect 6" amount in 12 hours often garners Lake Effect Warnings for Cuyahoga and Geauga for 36-48 hours at a time.

[NEOH]

CLe mentioned their local ARW model in the afd... Which hasn't updated on the website since november. Looking upstream, the flow seems to be weak. Not sure what impact that may have, but I'd say its not good for inland locals as covergence would be greatest near the lakeshore. This LES event is looking pretty weak. I wonder how south the trough will even be able to push with the ridging pushing in from the SW.

 

EDIT: CLE's local model has updated. Shows a nice band forming in this area tomorrow morning for a few hours. May be able to sneak in a white christmas if that verifies. But the weak flow as mentioned above is a concern. There will be strong covergence where ever the band sets up so someone may see a big total -- throw the dart with your eyes closed as to where.

[OHweather]

The AFD today is a prime example of CLE always propping up the Lake Effect Warnings:

 

 

NOT SURE IF 6 INCHES WILL BE EXCEEDED IN 12 HOURS OR 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS BUT THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKELY ENOUGH FOR A LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR ERIE CO PA WITH ADVISORIES SURROUNDING THE COUNTY.

 

Not saying that there won't be warning type snows with this band, but it's just interesting how in this case warnings go up with lots of uncertainty for a very localized and relatively low population area. Contrast this to last Saturday's snowfall event for the entire region. You had model consensus for days of a significant snow impact for millions of people. While borderline warning criteria (some areas did achieve this), the event was downplayed to advisory criteria despite being a likely candidate for the season's most significant snowstorm. Yet, the threat of an isolated lake effect 6" amount in 12 hours often garners Lake Effect Warnings for Cuyahoga and Geauga for 36-48 hours at a time.

The discrepancy really is funny at times. I remember last winter we had a decent little snow event the weekend after Christmas...and their AFD's leading up to that event spent more time discussing why they WOULDN'T issue an advisory for that event than the AFD's leading up to the Boxing Day storm spent discussing why they issued a blizzard warning.

 

Right now I'm fairly confident in Erie County seeing significant amounts...more confident than CLE. I think someone walks away with a foot plus there.

 

Playing devil's advocate, say that in eastern Cuyahoga on a Friday they expect 4-8" of snow (warning criteria)...then 1-4" Friday night and another 1-4" Saturday (advisory criteria for a few)...and then another 4-8" Saturday night as the event ends (again warning criteria). Would it make sense for them to run a long winded warning for the whole event like they usually do, or switch headlines to an advisory for the middle? While the east side is seeing this the west side sees an inch here and there but is still under the same headline as the east side. One thing I think you've mentioned before is splitting Cuyahoga County into two zones...probably along the lines of east of I-77 and west of I-77. That would sort of diminish the overwarn problem for parts of the county. I'm not a fan of splitting every county into a bunch of zones but Cuyahoga is CLE's most populated county and often there is a huge difference between east of 271 and say Berea or Edgewater.

 

CLe mentioned their local ARW model in the afd... Which hasn't updated on the website since november. Looking upstream, the flow seems to be weak. Not sure what impact that may have, but I'd say its not good for inland locals as covergence would be greatest near the lakeshore. This LES event is looking pretty weak. I wonder how south the trough will even be able to push with the ridging pushing in from the SW.

 

EDIT: CLE's local model has updated. Shows a nice band forming in this area tomorrow morning for a few hours. May be able to sneak in a white christmas if that verifies. But the weak flow as mentioned above is a concern. There will be strong covergence where ever the band sets up so someone may see a big total -- throw the dart with your eyes closed as to where.

Yeah, you have to forward the model off the first image to see the "new" runs (with the newest being 6z Monday).

 

This will be an interesting event to watch unfold for better or worse. The models all show good convergence over the eastern lakeshore with decent synoptic lift and moisture on top of moderate lake induced instability which I think will cause someone (probably Erie County or possible parts of northern Ashtabula) to see a significant amount of snow...possibly upwards of a foot.

 

Farther west I still think the models are underdoing the burst of snow with the trough tomorrow morning due to initializing with too much ice from Lorain points west, and lake effect conditions don't fall off the cliff until mid evening tomorrow so I think there could be several hours of snow showers from Lorain east tomorrow behind the burst of snow with the trough. It may not be enough to get more than 2-4" but I really think we see at least something...especially in the higher elevations in Cuyahoga into Geauga. The ridging is still pretty far to the SW tomorrow morning and with a potent upper trough over head I think we'll see the trough push south of the lakeshore and allow some snow to spread inland.

 

I ended up pulling the amounts east a bit before my map was posted to the website I forecast for...I have 2-4" for about the eastern third of Cuyahoga County now with 3-6" for the eastern half of Lake and NE quarter of Geauga County...with 4-8" for the northeastern third of Ashtabula County with more in Erie County.

[NEOH]

That meso low over lake MI tells the story... the trough is virtually locked in place, but seems to now be moving slowly south. Not sure it will get here in time before other parameters become more unfavorable.

 

OHWeather - You're right, areas well to the NE of here should do well. Not seeing it for NE Ohio but you never know with LES. Hopefully someone will get a nice surprise tomorrow.

[OHweather]

That meso low over lake MI tells the story... the trough is virtually locked in place, but seems to now be moving slowly south. Not sure it will get here in time before other parameters become more unfavorable.

OHWeather - You're right, areas well to the NE of here should do well. Not seeing it for NE Ohio but you never know with LES. Hopefully someone will get a nice surprise tomorrow.

I see why you're not optimistic and am a bit concerned myself...we'll find out soon enough.

[OHweather]

Looks like a heavy east-west band into the east side. Have around half an inch here. This one may finally work out as the winds don't turn NW for another 2-3 hours.

[OHweather]

Now would be when CLE SHOULD be putting out advisories for Lake, Geauga and Cuyahoga (northern Lorain will be close too)...let's see if they do. This band will drop a quick 2-4" on a lot of population with some snow showers then continuing into the evening.

[Trent]

Now would be when CLE SHOULD be putting out advisories for Lake, Geauga and Cuyahoga (northern Lorain will be close too)...let's see if they do. This band will drop a quick 2-4" on a lot of population with some snow showers then continuing into the evening.

Traffic cameras in downtown Cleveland show a near whiteout with the roads covered.

 

I'm at the fringe of the band. I'm hoping it can drop maybe 3 miles farther south to at least cover the grass tips.

[Trent]

[Trent]

Gotta love these surprise lake effect bands.

 

Over 3" here now.

 

There was no snow on the ground when I got up this morning:

 

 

[carumba]

I'd say here at my place just south of Chagrin Falls we've got maybe 3/4" or so. I was just in Beachwood and they have probably 2" or so.

[Trent]

Now would be when CLE SHOULD be putting out advisories for Lake, Geauga and Cuyahoga (northern Lorain will be close too)...let's see if they do. This band will drop a quick 2-4" on a lot of population with some snow showers then continuing into the evening.

 

Ball was dropped on this one. 

 

However, you could blame it on the poor Lake Erie ice cover initialization. None of the hi-res models picked it up. Even the very juicy and notoriously amped NMM and ARW had virtually no QPF. 

 

None of the BUF models had anything in this neck of the woods either. You'd have to rely on some meteorology and try to compensate for the ice cover inaccuracies. 

 

White Christmas is a lock here! Very nice surprise. Will probably end up with 4" shortly.

[OHweather]

Ball was dropped on this one.

However, you could blame it on the poor Lake Erie ice cover initialization. None of the hi-res models picked it up. Even the very juicy and notoriously amped NMM and ARW had virtually no QPF.

None of the BUF models had anything in this neck of the woods either. You'd have to rely on some meteorology and try to compensate for the ice cover inaccuracies.

White Christmas is a lock here! Very nice surprise. Will probably end up with 4" shortly.

2" and counting in Bedford Heights with occasional bursts of snow. I'm waiting for the day CLE isn't surprised by a Cleveland W-E band. I was pretty sure the models were underdone with snow although didn't expect convergence to hang on as long as it did. It didn't seem like tough work to figure out the hi-res models were wrong due to having too much ice over the lake.

[Trent]

 

 

Pic says it all. Picked up 4.7" here in southern Lakewood. 

 

 

[NEOH]

Picked up about 2.5" here in South Russell and still snowing. Had a couple brief whiteouts but the heaviest bands never really made it this far south.

 

Nice to have white Christmas. My call for a bust was a bust.

[Speedskater]

Trent, did you move or do you have 3 homes?

 

Two & 1/4 inch at Lakewood Park

[Trent]

Trent, did you move or do you have 3 homes?

 

Two & 1/4 inch at Lakewood Park

 

I did move away from the immediate lakeshore.

 

The difference in snowfall from the immediate lakeshore to just a mile or two inland can be quite impressive. There have been a few times this season where there is nothing at Clifton and Warren, but 2" at Warren and I-90. 

 

I was dead center jackpot for the band today. Once it slid south it stayed over top of my house for another 2 hours. If you go 5 miles south of here there's nothing on the ground.

[OHweather]

The dearth of reports from Cuyahoga is annoying. The highest amount is 2" in western Cleveland even though Trent had almost 5" in Lakewood and the east side had a widespread 3-5". As far as CLE is concerned it was a great forecast!

[NEOH]

Right around 3" here in MBY. Was still snowing lightly at 11pm last night.

 

Have a nice Christmas everyone... definitely a picturesque Christmas morning.

[Trent]

The dearth of reports from Cuyahoga is annoying. The highest amount is 2" in western Cleveland even though Trent had almost 5" in Lakewood and the east side had a widespread 3-5". As far as CLE is concerned it was a great forecast!

 

Enjoy the white Christmas everyone! Even though yesterday's extreme high ratio fluff has settled considerably.

 

I actually reported my snow total to the NWS twice yesterday. Once during the middle of the event to tell what kind of rates were falling and then a final tally. They were fully aware of the intense snow band and the kind of rates/snows it was producing over a narrow area.

 

The fact that they purposely left it out of the PNS is quite shocking, actually. Are they an organization that purposefully excludes snow reports that do not jive with the forecasts they produce? On the flip side, if they had warnings out, they are practically begging for reports to confirm that.

 

The east/west convergence band through Cleveland is just some mysterious weather phenomena that CLE doesn't think exists. If you look at wundergrounds radar loop from yesterday the 24th (lower right corner) http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=CLE&type=N0R&MR=1 I'm situated at about the lower middle of the "V" in the Cleveland label. Couldn't get luckier than that for this event.

[dta1984]

Merry Christmas all. Glad to hear there's some snow back home. Been in southern Ohio for a few days.