Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[LakeEffectOH]

Looks the 0z RGEM is moving NW too.  Congratulations in store for DTW and maybe Chicago.  You know, I checked annual snowfall stats for Chicago & Detroit and I was floored by how much less snow falls in a year in those cities (Chi - 36", Det - 42" & Cle = 68") than in Cleveland.  Sure doesn't seem like it.  Sometimes it seems like the other way around.

[BuffaloWeather]

Hey BuffaloWeather, do you think a super event will set up on either Erie or Ontario after this storm, January 6, 7, or 8th? Like a 20" south of Buffalo?

 

Yes, the local mets and NWS are calling for feet of lake effect on top of the nearly uniform foot of snow across most of the area. In addition to this 30-40 mph winds and wind chills as low as -30. The local mets are really hyping up this pattern. Some are going as far as saying it might be close to the blizzard of 1985. I doubt it reaches that proportion though. Places off Lake Ontario will likely cash in much more than us due to having a deeper lake. I wouldn't be surprised to see some places near 4-6 feet from Sunday Night Into Weds Night.

[NEOH]

Still no idea what is going to happen with the storm. Wpc is going with a euro/gfs combo. Gfs remains all snow but the euro track looks close.

Oh weather - what do the temps look like on last nights euro?

[michsnowfreak]

Looks the 0z RGEM is moving NW too. Congratulations in store for DTW and maybe Chicago. You know, I checked annual snowfall stats for Chicago & Detroit and I was floored by how much less snow falls in a year in those cities (Chi - 36", Det - 42" & Cle = 68") than in Cleveland. Sure doesn't seem like it. Sometimes it seems like the other way around.

It seems that way because Detroit (and Chicago to an extent) have been killing Cleveland with synoptic snowstorms for several years now...but Cleveland gets lots of LES.

[NEOH]

It seems that way because Detroit (and Chicago to an extent) have been killing Cleveland with synoptic snowstorms for several years now...but Cleveland gets lots of LES.

The perception is that CLE is in the snowbelt of ne Ohio... But it really isn't. Lake enhancement, and the occasional pure les snowfall helps to boost totals above Detroit.

[Trent]

The AFD from CLE overnight is horrible. Hardly any mention of synoptics for the storm tomorrow. Definitely a candidate for worst office in the midwest.

 

Right now it's a razor thin cut-off for snow for NE Ohio. Accounting for the usual light trend NW, if you're east of Sandusky, prep for a decent amount of 35 and rain. 

[Trent]

The perception is that CLE is in the snowbelt of ne Ohio... But it really isn't. Lake enhancement, and the occasional pure les snowfall helps to boost totals above Detroit.

 

Had the airport been constructed 10 miles southeast of downtown versus 10 miles southwest of downtown, the "official" average would easily jump 30 inches. 

 

Case in point for this year. Mayfield Heights, just 12 miles east of downtown sits at 57" for the year, CLE 10 miles southwest of downtown is at 30.

[NEOH]

The AFD from CLE overnight is horrible. Hardly any mention of synoptics for the storm tomorrow. Definitely a candidate for worst office in the midwest.

 

Right now it's a razor thin cut-off for snow for NE Ohio. Accounting for the usual light trend NW, if you're east of Sandusky, prep for a decent amount of 35 and rain.

Yeah... Just awful disco. My gut says rain... But the gfs and euro haven't caved nw. The nam has been a disaster as pointed out by the hpc. Just gotta hope the gfs wins this one.

[Whitelakeroy]

It seems that way because Detroit (and Chicago to an extent) have been killing Cleveland with synoptic snowstorms for several years now...but Cleveland gets lots of LES.

Josh I know you love to do the Climo data.  It would be interesting to see the running averages over the past 10 or so years for ORD, DTW and CLE.  It would be interesting to include DTX and your (Josh) backyard too.

 

One thing to keep in mind is Chicago area has had a couple 20"+ EPIC storms I believe starting with Jan 99 storm.  Detroit area (not necessary DTW itself) has had several 10-16" major events starting with the Jan 99 storm.

 

I have found being on these boards changes perception too.  While I have not had an EPIC event IMBY (though one could argue that the late April 2005 was EPIC).  I have end up with some awesome yearly totals.  Yet not being part of those EPIC events one the boards seeems to some how tants those winters.

[Trent]

Clear skies should provide a good shot at Lake Erie ice extent within an hour.

 

The consolation prize to a missed storm is the record breaking cold behind it.

 

The record low for Tuesday at -7 is pretty much a lock for CLE. Interestingly enough, there hasn't been a record low set in January in Cleveland in 20 years. Almost half (14) of the record lows for January are from the 1800s, so this will be a remarkable event, especially if Tuesday can sneak by without a high above zero.

 

Any rain that falls will provide a rock hard coat of ice on the snowpack from the rapid flash freeze. Should cut down on a lot of blowing a drifting if this ends up being a miss to the west, with just a bit of wrap around snows.

[michsnowfreak]

Josh I know you love to do the Climo data.  It would be interesting to see the running averages over the past 10 or so years for ORD, DTW and CLE.  It would be interesting to include DTX and your (Josh) backyard too.

 

One thing to keep in mind is Chicago area has had a couple 20"+ EPIC storms I believe starting with Jan 99 storm.  Detroit area (not necessary DTW itself) has had several 10-16" major events starting with the Jan 99 storm.

 

I have found being on these boards changes perception too.  While I have not had an EPIC event IMBY (though one could argue that the late April 2005 was EPIC).  I have end up with some awesome yearly totals.  Yet not being part of those EPIC events one the boards seeems to some how tants those winters

Last 10 winters (2003-04 thru 2012-13)...

ORD: 40.1"

DTW: 47.8"

CLE: 71.3"

 

MBY: 52.7"

DTX: 64.2"

 

Few notes: Not sure about the other places....but from 2003-04 thru 2012-13, DTW had 19 storms drop 6"+, which is above the normal (30-year norm would indicate 13 in that time frame, 100-yr norm would indicate 10). MBY also saw 19 storms of 6"+ in that timeframe.

 

Note also...This year is obviously off to a superb start. Snowfall way above normal and already 2 storms of 6"+ logged and perhaps another tomorrow. Once we recalculate the running 10-year total this April, the averages will shoot way up. For instance, 2003-04 would fall off the chart and be replaced by 2013-14. DTW saw a pitiful 24.1" in 2003-04 and no snowstorms of 6"+. So...you are looking at 21-22+ storms if 6"+ in the last 10 years, and average snowfall at minimum well north of 50" for DTW once we recalculate. Also..the disparity between MBY & DTW (while it does include a few downriver snowstorms) is that DTW measuring was quite shoddy from the late 90s through mid-00s. (Im sure all stations can say that at some point though).

 

Bottom line...snowfall is running well above normal in the southern Great Lakes the last decade.

[Whitelakeroy]

Last 10 winters (2003-04 thru 2012-13)...

ORD: 40.1"

DTW: 47.8"

CLE: 71.3"

 

MBY: 52.7"

DTX: 64.2"

 

Few notes: Not sure about the other places....but from 2003-04 thru 2012-13, DTW had 19 storms drop 6"+, which is above the normal (30-year norm would indicate 13 in that time frame, 100-yr norm would indicate 10). MBY also saw 19 storms of 6"+ in that timeframe.

 

Note also...This year is obviously off to a superb start. Snowfall way above normal and already 2 storms of 6"+ logged and perhaps another tomorrow. Once we recalculate the running 10-year total this April, the averages will shoot way up. For instance, 2003-04 would fall off the chart and be replaced by 2013-14. DTW saw a pitiful 24.1" in 2003-04 and no snowstorms of 6"+. So...you are looking at 21-22+ storms if 6"+ in the last 10 years, and average snowfall at minimum well north of 50" for DTW once we recalculate. Also..the disparity between MBY & DTW (while it does include a few downriver snowstorms) is that DTW measuring was quite shoddy from the late 90s through mid-00s. (Im sure all stations can say that at some point though).

 

Bottom line...snowfall is running well above normal in the southern Great Lakes the last decade.

Wow thanks.  It does show how well above normal the GL area has been.

[Trent]

NAM is so far west, we barely even get rain out of this!

[NEOH]

NAM is so far west, we barely even get rain out of this!

 

Toss it. It's being humped hard by those hoping for a more western solution. We'll see what the 12z gfs does shortly. 

[zero26800]

Toss it. It's being humped hard by those hoping for a more western solution. We'll see what the 12z gfs does shortly.

Agreed. NAM has been pretty bad this year. Just cause it's showing a wanted western solution to this it is getting a lot of attention, though it has yet to be consistent at all with this system.

[Trent]

And GFS holds for here and is slightly more south with the snow for northeast Ohio. Stark differences between NAM and GFS. One is going down in flames.

[zero26800]

And GFS holds for here and is slightly more south with the snow for northeast Ohio. Stark differences between NAM and GFS. One is going down in flames.

Going to start getting heated considering the divide between solutions

[zero26800]

CLE staying out of it. No specifics just that it will snow.

[NEOH]

So the GFS holds and Euro ticks NW. What do the temps on the euro look like? Not good I'd imagine.

[OHweather]

Euro is 1-2" of snow for the Cleveland metro... Mostly rain. I can post the text later when I'm home.

[NEOH]

Euro is 1-2" of snow for the Cleveland metro... Mostly rain. I can post the text later when I'm home.

Thanks... Awful. Shouldn't be much rain I'd imagine. Gfs/euro combo might be best approach... And still not good. We'll see what Cle has to say. Still all snow in the forecast... And they mention 4-6 central and east in the aviation portion of the afd.

[Trent]

Thanks... Awful. Shouldn't be much rain I'd imagine. Gfs/euro combo might be best approach... And still not good. We'll see what Cle has to say. Still all snow in the forecast... And they mention 4-6 central and east in the aviation portion of the afd.

 

It seemed like it was a razor thin cut off right through the region. From the Euro QPF maps posted elsewhere, it still looks like a good 0.6" of liquid equivalent for CLE. Temps look 31 west 34 east. It might be one of those cases where Bay Village gets 6" and Solon is all rain.

 

The trend has definitely been northwest and by a lot for most of the models.  Not looking good in my opinion.

[Trent]

CLE disco is out, going with the snowiest solution and tossing the NAM:

 

FOLLOWED MAINLY A GFS/ECMWF BLEND VS
THE NAM WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM WITH TEMPS SUNDAY AND TOO FAR WEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK. THAT SAID...DO BELIEVE THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO
MIX EITHER SLEET/ZR OR RAIN INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS FAR WEST
AS KCLE TO KNOX COUNTY WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

[NEOH]

It seemed like it was a razor thin cut off right through the region. From the Euro QPF maps posted elsewhere, it still looks like a good 0.6" of liquid equivalent for CLE. Temps look 31 west 34 east. It might be one of those cases where Bay Village gets 6" and Solon is all rain.

The trend has definitely been northwest and by a lot for most of the models. Not looking good in my opinion.

Yep... Not looking good. It will be interesting to see where the rn/sn line sets up. Just read the Wpc disco... They are going with a gfs/euro blend. Their storm track is east of the oh border... Just east of Erie actually. I'm grasping at straws but you never know.

Edit:just read your post... CLe must be following the Wpc forecast.

[buckeye]

interesting that CLE is going with a warning all the way down to Knox County....obviously not buying the nam or the 12z euro.  

[Trent]

interesting that CLE is going with a warning all the way down to Knox County....obviously not buying the nam or the 12z euro.  

 

They are basically covering themselves for whatever happens. They mention that they are using winter storm warnings to encompass both blowing snow and wind chill warnings.

 

In fact, my forecast doesn't even mention rain. Just heavy snow and accumulations up to 10". That seems like a long shot at this point.

[Trent]

No mention of rain, except near the Pennsylvania border. Wow, definitely banking on the GFS!

 

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE
406 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SUNDAY SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...SLIGHTLY
LOWER NEAR OHIO PENNSYLVANIA BORDER IF MIXED PRECIPITATION
OCCURS. SUNDAY NIGHT SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO ERIE COUNTY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE
MAIN CONCERN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL USHER FRIGID AIR INTO THE REGION. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF
20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE. BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM.

[Trent]

I don't get it. Why is it with the last storm, there was 100% model consensus for days of a significant snowstorm of 6-12", yet no warning was issued until the storm was over?

 

Yet, with this storm there is no model consensus, very few models even show it snowing in northeast Ohio more than an inch, yet a winter storm warning is issued? I really don't understand CLE.

 

... And with that the GFS finally jumps ship and caves drastically NW. I don't think there's a model left that shows snow here for this storm.

[zero26800]

I don't think the gfs jumped much. Just more of a change in its qpf. The track hasn't changed really. I think the track of this storm is something that won't be defined for our area until it really gets going. These initial snow breakouts won't tell the whole story.

[Trent]

I don't think the gfs jumped much. Just more of a change in its qpf. The track hasn't changed really. I think the track of this storm is something that won't be defined for our area until it really gets going. These initial snow breakouts won't tell the whole story.

 

The low now passes over CLE instead of SE of Meadville, PA up to east of Buffalo.

 

Verbatim it's also a narrow razor edge for the area. Western suburbs of Cleveland just barely stay all snow while the eastern burbs are predominantly rain. Considering that this is the most favorable of the model runs out there, it's not looking that good.

 

Perhaps we'll see a slight adjustment southward tonight. But right now, it's going to be either 0.75" of bone chilling rain and then 8" of snow 15 miles to the west, wherever that line ends up being.