tombo82685 Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Sexy pattern ImageUploadedByTapatalk1371717507.407048.jpg Euro has been steadfast with the trough in the east and the mega degla death ridge out west. Gfs has been trying to fluxing East heat, but slowly seems to be coming away from It. Agreed, storm chances and in the 8-10 day period euro has highs never leaving the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Sexy pattern ImageUploadedByTapatalk1371717507.407048.jpg Euro has been steadfast with the trough in the east and the mega degla death ridge out west. Gfs has been trying to fluxing East heat, but slowly seems to be coming away from It. Given the westward shift in the drought that kind of makes sense. Looks like in the nearer term the bermuda high starts building westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Just took a peak at some of the GEFS height departures in the long range, I didnt see any below normal heights in the NH. Based on CTP's long range, GEFS now on the Euro's side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Based on the free maps the 12z Euro looked awfully wet and stormy in the long range. Does anyone with paid access have a better idea of exactly how wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Based on the free maps the 12z Euro looked awfully wet and stormy in the long range. Does anyone with paid access have a better idea of exactly how wet? From about mid week next week everyday features showers and storms of .25-.5. Also drops the temp big time with what looks like a back door cold front that retreats north day 9 with more showers and storms. For the philly area it shows 1-2 inches of rain to help moisten the desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Based on CTP's long range, GEFS now on the Euro's side? Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 It's not quite "classic" yet for our region but the modeling is getting there for severe weather. There are different scenarios during the early-mid summer that bring a classic setup for severe weather. One of them is a ridge amplification then retrogression as something from the NW dives in to bring change. Now this may happen a lot throughout the summer but there are subtleties that make each time that much more favorable or unfavorable for severe. In this case, we are teetering with "classic." The initial ridge amplification is mostly north and west of our region but the first EML tries to come in on Sunday (the heart of which goes well north of us). The second will try to surge in Wednesday-Thursday ahead of the amplifying trough over the Midwest. This amplification is getting Tropical-West Pacific aid with a surge of upper-level jet wind (strengthening both the anticyclone and our wave). A surge of 10°C+ 700mb temperatures is possible with this EML blast with plenty of low-level moisture. The LLJ will fluctuate in intensity, mainly inertial-driven by the diurnal cycle but expect the entire tropospheric wind to pick up at the end of next week. It is quite possible everything will actually come together for our region to be at least threatened 1 of the days. Usually, I like a more pronounced ridge / EML ahead but this certainly is sufficient enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 New 12z GFS has multiple days of convection but really targets Thursday and Friday for potential severe weather. The h7 temp max moves into VA ~ +10 to 11. While this isn't a classic EML-advection pattern (like Ekster/Banacos 2010 research), this trajectory is more classic for the northern Mid Atlantic than New England. So it's a trade-off, in a sense. Usually, the Ekster EML setups have the max temps come over us with best ingredients for severe across NY-New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 From what I can gather out of the Euro, it would be interesting for Wed into wed night for svr.. But not Thursday..There are some key differences at that point betwen the euro/gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 From what I can gather out of the Euro, it would be interesting for Wed into wed night for svr.. But not Thursday..There are some key differences at that point betwen the euro/gfs Pretty much, the euro is keying on wednesday, though it doesn't have much precip printed out but with temps in the low 90s the fuel would be there. Thurs like you said is pretty mundane. Friday and saturday are bigger precip events, but we lost the heat so, i doubt that its svr storms and more like run of the mill stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 last night's euro has Tue PM and Thu night/early Fri for threats next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 last night's euro has Tue PM and Thu night/early Fri for threats next week. also bringing in a shot of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon into evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 That Bermuda High really flexes its muscle in the long range.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 That Bermuda High really flexes its muscle in the long range.! I love it! On both models..that's a pretty powerful ridge too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I love it! On both models..that's a pretty powerful ridge too. That Bermuda High really flexes its muscle in the long range.! I'm not sure post day 10, but in the 8-10 day period what is shown is not the pattern you guys are thinking. The euro has 4-8 inches of rain the next 10 days with temps after friday, in upper 70s to low 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Looks like the GFS was more correct with regards to how Wed-Thu will play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I'm not sure post day 10, but in the 8-10 day period what is shown is not the pattern you guys are thinking. The euro has 4-8 inches of rain the next 10 days with temps after friday, in upper 70s to low 80s I should have been more specific. With the high to our east, and the constant troughing trying to advance east, has a very rainy-humid look to it. Firehose set up?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I should have been more specific. With the high to our east, and the constant troughing trying to advance east, has a very rainy-humid look to it. Firehose set up?? Yep squeeze play with GOM open for stuff to stream up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I should have been more specific. With the high to our east, and the constant troughing trying to advance east, has a very rainy-humid look to it. Firehose set up?? Yep squeeze play with GOM open for stuff to stream up Yea, this flow is "wet" Ps, this forecast was made from: Have a fun day @ work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Yea, this flow is "wet"Ps, this forecast was made from: ImageUploadedByTapatalk1372088682.986492.jpgHave a fun day @ workHave fun on the hot sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 Looks like the GFS was more correct with regards to how Wed-Thu will play out This is pretty ridiculous! Several days of convection threatening our area starting today and possibly lasting for....a week?!? Really, each day has a risk for some severe with Wed-Thu looking pretty good (Lancaster tornado Thursday? lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Looks like a good chance of wet weather every day till July 4th! Ugh. I am headed to the beach next week too! Someone please tell me wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 That Bermuda High really flexes its muscle in the long range.! I love it! On both models..that's a pretty powerful ridge too. I'm not sure post day 10, but in the 8-10 day period what is shown is not the pattern you guys are thinking. The euro has 4-8 inches of rain the next 10 days with temps after friday, in upper 70s to low 80s Yeah, I know ptb is a heat freak and he's going to be pissed when he opens this thread again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 2nd run in a row the euro is going 3-8 inches for the area, drought will get worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 2nd run in a row the euro is going 3-8 inches for the area, drought will get worse Water restrictions, now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 man 4th of july week looks wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 2nd run in a row the euro is going 3-8 inches for the area, drought will get worse water restrictions may be needed by the 4th lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 water restrictions may be needed by the 4th lol yea, 3rd straight run of 4-8 inches of water in the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 This is pretty ridiculous! Several days of convection threatening our area starting today and possibly lasting for....a week?!? Really, each day has a risk for some severe with Wed-Thu looking pretty good (Lancaster tornado Thursday? lol). Sooooo much rain on the way lol! Tomorrow through next week in particular has the look of perpetual convection and 70s dews...the latest runs shoved the Bermuda high a little further west but all that really did was increase the high temp potential a bit with aftn storms still very likely...really there isnt an end in sight to the wetter looking pattern beyond that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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