famartin Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Day 3 slight risk: SPC AC 310756 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL TSTM AREA ...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... A MID/HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ARE PROBABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEMPER THE OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS STORMS MATURE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ACCENTUATED BY AS MUCH AS 35-50 KT BETWEEN 2-6 KM...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCLUDING BOWS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL. ... ..GUYER.. 05/31/2013 Day 3 isn't really the medium range, just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Day 3 isn't really the medium range, just sayin' I didn't know if it was worthy of it's own thread just yet. Maybe tom can move it since he hasn't had to do anything green tag wise in forever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I didn't know if it was worthy of it's own thread just yet. Maybe tom can move it since he hasn't had to do anything green tag wise in forever.... We could always just use this existing thread for Sunday-Monday at this point: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40211-mt-holly-cwa-convection-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I didn't know if it was worthy of it's own thread just yet. Maybe tom can move it since he hasn't had to do anything green tag wise in forever.... I'm just gonna pin the convection thread so it doesn't get buried all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I'm just gonna pin the convection thread so it doesn't get buried all the time. Great idea. Unless we're expecting a high-end Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch, it's probably overkill to have threads for each thunderstorm day we experience this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 The medium-long range looks "comfortable" and wet... Nothing screams death ridge over us, so I'll take it. (It's centered over the western part of the conus). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 man the 0z euro run is wet and not just fri/sat event. not to self, cut grass thursday after work or else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Tony, thanks for the post. I think I also like the idea of a late summer warm anomaly. I'm not sure yet how extensive it will be but August could be most of the northern-tier of the CONUS while September is more RNA-styled. Looking like a stormy first half! So when should we expect NC to see a landfalling tropical system this year? I love when you throw these comments in lol Anyhow, it's nice to see a summer discussion spark up. Looks like were setting up a home base for heat in the Plains/Intermountain West in the next couple of weeks. I'm not seeing any major signals of pieces breaking off into the Northeast though. even noting the impressive -AAM signal going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I love when you throw these comments in lol Anyhow, it's nice to see a summer discussion spark up. Looks like were setting up a home base for heat in the Plains/Intermountain West in the next couple of weeks. I'm not seeing any major signals of pieces breaking off into the Northeast though. impressive -AAM signal going on right now though. Given the -AAM/MJO stuff, seems like we ought to get a West Coast/Rockies trough around the 20th or so? Central Plains severe with some heat in the East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Any chance of clearing on Saturday??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Any chance of clearing on Saturday??????? If the NAM is correct we could clear out by 12z on Saturday, but it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Given the -AAM/MJO stuff, seems like we ought to get a West Coast/Rockies trough around the 20th or so? Central Plains severe with some heat in the East? I quoted HM's post from the Summer thread, but posted in this thread for some reason Ive always just taken the low AAM as a signal there could be a west coast trough and heat risk downstream. But looking deep into the AAM is not my strongest subject to be sure, and I certainly don't have a very good feel for predicting how the GWO stuff is going to orbit on the phase diagram..but if you used the 2mT composites below, then it appears the phase 1-2 worked out very well as a pattern indicator at the end of may...Going forward here the pattern on the ensembles with heat in the central doesnt seem to match anything else there nearby, except maybe 7, but we are not ending up there anytime soon, that I'm pretty sure of.. Troughing does look to arrive on the West coast next week though, but I assume youre implying further eastward into the Rockies by the 20th? I guess I could see that happening, but I'll be trying to look deeper into everything tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I moved it there, since it makes more sense here Yeah, that's my idea right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 A weird split flow pattern over western Canada that wants to keep lower heights in check over ern Canada. Maybe some nice WNW flow fun for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 A weird split flow pattern over western Canada that wants to keep lower heights in check over ern Canada. Maybe some nice WNW flow fun for you guys. Drier weather? Or mcs weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Drier weather? Or mcs weather? i would think mcs stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I moved it there, since it makes more sense here Yeah, that's my idea right now. Oh haha, I thought I was losing it man! Sheesh you cant be doing these things to a tired over-worked meteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Oh haha, I thought I was losing it man! Sheesh you cant be doing these things to a tired over-worked meteorologist Wouldn't Adam qualify as that too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Wouldn't Adam qualify as that too? Exactly! He should know from experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Don't see much in the teleconnections with the MJO. Kinda fizzles after this week, imo. Looks fairly progressive with little in the way of obvious "unusual" forcing. Warm followed by cool followed by warm. Rinse and repeat. The CPC expert on MJO did a teletraining session yesterday. While he had to go from the start for everyone, he had some medium range model skill scores he talked about. When we get on the other side of Andrea, I'll post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 The CPC expert on MJO did a teletraining session yesterday. While he had to go from the start for everyone, he had some medium range model skill scores he talked about. When we get on the other side of Andrea, I'll post it. Cool stuff. Im assuming that was some coordinated workshop between NOAA offices? On a severe weather note for the 1-2 week time frame, looks like we could see an interesting MCS pattern set up with heat anchor in the central/southern u.s..Could set up south of us though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Cool stuff. Im assuming that was some coordinated workshop between NOAA offices? On a severe weather note for the 1-2 week time frame, looks like we could see an interesting MCS pattern set up with heat anchor in the central/southern u.s..Could set up south of us though Yeah one of those teletraining sessions. Really should have been two hours or two parts, he covered alot of info in that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I thought the most interesting part was when does the skill in the MJO drop out in the medium range models. GFS was about day 12. Ukmet he felt was ranked 2nd. Euro was number one and normally averages 3 to 4 weeks (their outlooks?) before there was no verifiable skill. I havent looked at them, but he said the CFS2 has skill out to 20 days. The longer MJO periods tend to produce better teleconnections (PNA biggest impact) in the mid latitudes. He also showed how the non-COD progression from Phases 5 to 7 drove changes in the winter time to the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 That all sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 That all sounds about right. Can you uncancel spring or can we have spring this summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Can you uncancel spring or can we have spring this summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 Just took a peak at some of the GEFS height departures in the long range, I didnt see any below normal heights in the NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Just took a peak at some of the GEFS height departures in the long range, I didnt see any below normal heights in the NH. Pretty good disagreement with the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Sexy pattern Euro has been steadfast with the trough in the east and the mega degla death ridge out west. Gfs has been trying to fluxing East heat, but slowly seems to be coming away from It. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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