MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 All of those models have less verification scores than the GFS. Nice try though. RGEM isn't a bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 RGEM isn't a bad model. Everyone is jumping on it because it got an upgrade. Sorry but that is not a good enough reason. Not enough time for statistical evaluation. I can tell just based on the water vapor that this is following the GFS. 1-3" for Islip, 3-6" for Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Everyone is jumping on it because it got an upgrade. Sorry but that is not a good enough reason. Not enough time for statistical evaluation. I can tell just based on the water vapor that this is following the GFS. 1-3" for Islip, 3-6" for Montauk. Actually, the RGEM has been a good short term model for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Everyone is jumping on it because it got an upgrade. Sorry but that is not a good enough reason. Not enough time for statistical evaluation. I can tell just based on the water vapor that this is following the GFS. 1-3" for Islip, 3-6" for Montauk. People have been touting the RGEM well before the upgrade. Again, try and know a few things before spouting off about them. A poster here (tgaman) has been posting RGEM runs forever and it has proven to be a pretty good model overall, well before the upgrade. Now it should be even better, making your argument have even less weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Actually, the RGEM has been a good short term model for a long time. There is no need to look at it when you have the GFS and Euro. Whatever, just watch it play it out, mabye take a road trip to see the good stuff. I'm already annoyed by how close it's going to get. On the inside, I don't want my thoughts to verify because it would mean the closest fringe in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 People have been touting the RGEM well before the upgrade. Again, try and know a few things before spouting off about them. A poster here (tgaman) has been posting RGEM runs forever and it has proven to be a pretty good model overall, well before the upgrade. Now it should be even better, making your argument have even less weight.Higher resolution correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 There is no need to look at it when you have the GFS and Euro. Whatever, just watch it play it out, mabye take a road trip to see the good stuff. I'm already annoyed by how close it's going to get. On the inside, I don't want my thoughts to verify because it would mean the closest fringe in years. It is annoying how close this storm will be to our area. Maybe we will pull a miracle later on. I doubt it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 700h is gorgeous also If you look at radar further south it is west of where all the models place it. That might be an indication this will be further west Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It is annoying how close this storm will be to our area. Maybe we will pull a miracle later on. I doubt it though.btw ot- it'll be interesting to see a study to see if that meteorite had any impact on weather - perturbations on the atmoshoere etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 12z GGEM just gives the area light snow later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 btw ot- it'll be interesting to see a study to see if that meteorite had any impact on weather - perturbations on the atmoshoere etc I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 12z GGEM just gives the area light snow later on. This snowstorm is balls to walls annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This snowstorm is balls to walls annoying. Here, feel better fast. Enjoy a fantasy. But HURRY, HURRY! to be gone by 18Z. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like Long Island gets 1-3 on euro tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like Long Island gets 1-3 on euro tonight That's thru 24hrs. Edit: Would the map suggest additional snow after 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Before believing the current JMA for the next 24 hours, what did it show yesterday for the 24 hour period ending at 12Z today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Here, feel better fast. Enjoy a fantasy. But HURRY, HURRY! to be gone by 18Z. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif It will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 That's thru 24hrs. Edit: Would the map suggest additional snow after 24hrs. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 JMA with the legendary coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 JMA with the legendary coup? it isn't all that much different from the euro. the JMA is often deceptive with its pastel color scheme, it tends to look more potent than it is in reality. Even if it verified verbatim, we are only talking .25-.35 liquid out on long island and sharply less to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 it isn't all that much different from the euro. the JMA is often deceptive with its pastel color scheme, it tends to look more potent than it is in reality. Even if it verified verbatim, we are only talking .25-.35 liquid out on long island and sharply less to the west. Yeah now that you mention it you're right...I've never really taken a close look at it (well, bc its the JMA lol)...and always just assumed it used the same QPF coloring as the GFS since they do use the same colors. But they don't nearly match up to the same QPF amounts to the same colors I now see. I had just assumed the dark blue was 0.5" + etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On the good side, we should squeeze out 20:1 ratios tonight so even 2/10ths L.E. should translate to 4 inches of powdery snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It's sunny out..I have seen a few flurries so far,.what's the deal with this event?..is it just hype? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 JMA with the legendary coup? True, that's an inch or two city and west, similar to what the euro's been showing the last two runs. I'll take it over nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On the good side, we should squeeze out 20:1 ratios tonight so even 2/10ths L.E. should translate to 4 inches of powdery snow. ...where do I sign ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It's sunny out..I have seen a few flurries so far,.what's the deal with this event?..is it just hype? Give it time...since I moved to Long Island in 1971...one thing to remember is that most of these storms get started somewhat later than progged...and the tendency is to start badly and end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Low forming inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 ...where do I sign ? I would call you a doubting Thomas...but it does not quite fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Reports of Thundersnow in South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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