Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Ed Lizard]

The 12Z Euro has a Coastal Low moving up the Texas Coast towards Louisiana Sunday night into Monday.

2.9 inches IMBY per Euro.

 

That would be sweet.

 

Just stepped outside, rain is dumping here, yet it is still very warm and humid.  Gotta love it.

[Srain]

Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the WPC:

 

[Ed Lizard]

I wouldn't think there'd be a lot of thunder in a saturated, low lapse rate environment with the freezing level at or above 500 mb, but then I'd be wrong.

 

 

Lots of thunder.

[Ed Lizard]

Impressive PWs and check out the impressive low level flow transporting that moisture...

 

[DoctorMu]

3.5 in in the backyard gauge so far, and the front barrelled through a little early.  The heavy line of showers has reached downtown HOU.

 

Pulses and 95L moisture getting pulled in should ride the Manny train to Louisiana.  We may not see much more rain in CLL, but the coast and Houston should be in for a few in more of soaking through Sunday.

[Ed Lizard]

3.5 in in the backyard gauge so far, and the front barrelled through a little early.  The heavy line of showers has reached downtown HOU.

 

Pulses and 95L moisture getting pulled in should ride the Manny train to Louisiana.  We may not see much more rain in CLL, but the coast and Houston should be in for a few in more of soaking through Sunday.

2.63 inches nine hours through 9:53 at IAH.  2.13 inches at Hooks,  MBY is in between.  This is good.  Just hope people use good sense about driving across high water, especially after dark.

 

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

TXC157-201-210515-

/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0012.130921T0311Z-130921T0515Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1011 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY  HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

  NORTH CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

  CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1010 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED

  THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA. IN EXCESS OF

  THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO

  BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...

  JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...

  PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SOUTHERN NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...TOWN WEST...

  SPRING BRANCH NORTH...ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS...SPRING BRANCH WEST...

  MISSION BEND...SPRING VALLEY...ADDICKS PARK TEN...PECAN GROVE...

  NORTHWESTERN GREATER HEIGHTS...HEDWIG VILLAGE...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...

  CARVERDALE...BRIAR FOREST...SPRING BRANCH CENTRAL...FOUR CORNERS...

  SPRING BRANCH EAST...ACRES HOME...LANGWOOD...FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST

  CROSSING...GREATER INWOOD...WESTBRANCH...WESTCHASE...CENTRAL

  NORTHWEST...INDEPENDENCE HEIGHTS AND ALIEF.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE

WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE

DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD

DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU

CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 2985 9537 2961 9569 2970 9579 2994 9555

 

 

 

[ams30721us]

15 inches here in Calcasieu Parish in 24 hours. Flash Flooding coverage all night. Fun stuff. From drought to flood in a day!

[Srain]

3.95 in 24 hour in my back yard from this event in 24 hours.

[Ed Lizard]

3.95 in 24 hour in my back yard from this event in 24 hours.

And 0Z and 6Z GFS see another front next week.  Not like this one, half to an inch, but we get that with every front this Fall...

 

I hate dry frontal passages...

[Srain]

[Chinook]

3.95 in 24 hour in my back yard from this event in 24 hours.

Seems like you were waiting a long time for that.

I saw that CoCoRAHS reports had 8"+ in Orange County TX, Calcasieu Parrish LA.

[Ed Lizard]

Reed Timmer is taking the Dominator to the Texas Panhandle, per Facebook.

 

 

Shorter days post-Equinox not anyone's friend, but NAM is developing activity by 0Z tomorrow, so we might get lucky with YouTubes.

[David Reimer]

Reed Timmer is taking the Dominator to the Texas Panhandle, per Facebook.

 

 

Shorter days post-Equinox not anyone's friend, but NAM is developing activity by 0Z tomorrow, so we might get lucky with YouTubes.

 

Looks like I'll also be venturing to the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. The 4-KM NAM is indicating a broken line of storms developing by 21-22Z. As such, the tail-end charlie will be the play for any chaseable tornadic potential. 

[Srain]

The models are coming into somewhat better agreement that the first significant fall season cold front will clear the Region next weekend. With a stalled boundary washing out early next week and rather strong onshore flow off the Gulf with PW's above 2 inches, heavy rainfall will likely continue into the work week. It appears a very slow moving 5H low will also meander over the Southern Plains suggestinng severe weather potential will increase late week and a squall line will accompany that strong front with much cooler temps and dry air for late next weekend.

[DoctorMu]

2.83 in of rain in the CLL backyard gauge with the front in 2 waves.

 

 

The next front Friday/Saturday is less juicy and temps about 10 °F cooler behind it.

 

[DoctorMu]

Nice influx of moisture and storms on the escalator from HOU and CLL.  Official end to watering and beginning of brown patch season begins.  Unfortunately NOAA is down with the Fed impasse.  Darn good thing tropical and tornadic activity are near nil, except for potential lemons in the Gulf.  Getting a few laughs from TWC and accuweather forecasts...

 

 

There's some oomph to the frontal passage on SAT about a 30% cance of rain, but much drier air follows with lows in the 50s here on Sun-Tue mornings.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Now that hurricane season is over, time to look forward to ice storm season.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdoYBEaSOes

[DoctorMu]

7.03 inches of rain in the backyard for the month of September.  A real drought buster.  Late April and early October are our Green times of the year - enjoy it while it lasts!

 

We had another 0.65 in of precip this am as a disturbance trailing the front moved through.  It's a Chamber of Conference day and week through Friday.

[Srain]

The guidance continues to advertise a rather complex and complicated pattern unfolding later this week across the Western 2/3rds of the North America. A potent cold core upper low and a deep trough will drop S into Southern California and the Desert SW and slowly eject across the Rockies into the Plains. A Pacific front will approach Texas and pull up stationary across Central Texas as a short wave/low pressure disturbance drops S toward the base of the Western trough. Add to the mix a developing EPAC tropical system that appears to be pulled N toward the Baja Peninsula and then turn NE spreading abundant tropical moisture across Mexico and Texas. Such patterns in past events have led to potential heavy rainfall events in October across Texas and tend to raise an eyebrow. It will be interesting to see if such a pattern continues to develop as the guidance is suggesting. As we near the weekend time frame rain chances do increase and may well continue into mid next week before a much stronger front clears the Region associated with the remnants of the WPAC typhoons and a power Pacific jet pushes E.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

The guidance continues to advertise a rather complex and complicated pattern unfolding later this week across the Western 2/3rds of the North America. A potent cold core upper low and a deep trough will drop S into Southern California and the Desert SW and slowly eject across the Rockies into the Plains. A Pacific front will approach Texas and pull up stationary across Central Texas as a short wave/low pressure disturbance drops S toward the base of the Western trough. Add to the mix a developing EPAC tropical system that appears to be pulled N toward the Baja Peninsula and then turn NE spreading abundant tropical moisture across Mexico and Texas. Such patterns in past events have led to potential heavy rainfall events in October across Texas and tend to raise an eyebrow. It will be interesting to see if such a pattern continues to develop as the guidance is suggesting. As we near the weekend time frame rain chances do increase and may well continue into mid next week before a much stronger front clears the Region associated with the remnants of the WPAC typhoons and a power Pacific jet pushes E.

 

10082013 Day 7 QPF p168i.gif

 

10082013 Day 3 Thru 7 Surface Charts 5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

 

I'm surprised the 12Z GFS isn't more bullish on the rain, seeing how the attempted East Pac TC has its moisture sheared right over Texas.

[Srain]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a very wet and stormy pattern for portions of the Southern Plains and locations E into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Locations in Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Northern Louisiana may see rainfall totals exceeding 3-5 inches with higher isolated totals where training storms may develop. The European suite is suggesting a potential multi day significant heavy rainfall event beginning Saturday and extending into mid next week as a complex pattern develops with a deep Western trough, a potent shortwave disturbance and 94E currently developing offshore of Acapulco moves NW and turns ENE across the Baja Peninsula and spreads deep tropical moisture across the Region where PW's above 2 inches will be in place across Texas ahead of the advancing trough. Such EPAC systems combined with the above mentioned trough/shortwave pattern in October have led to significant rainfall events in past years and will need to be monitored closely the next several days.

 

 

 

[Srain]

Afternoon updated 7 day qpf totals and 18Z tracks for 94E:

 

 

[Srain]

A potential multi day heavy rainfall event is developing for Texas and portions of the Southern Plains extending E into Arkansas. A combination of a very deep Western trough with multiple short waves dropping S along California into the Great Basin along with increasing tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the EPAC as well as a very slow moving frontal boundary paint a very wet pattern across the Region extending into mid next week.

[Quixotic1]

We could use the rain.  From the FWD NWS:

ALTHOUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BENEFITED FROM ABOVE NORMALPRECIPITATION IN EARLY 2012...THE CURRENT DROUGHT CAN BE TRACED BACKTO THE FALL OF 2010. ACCORDING TO DR. JOHN NIELSEN-GAMMON...THETEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...THE CURRENT DROUGHT IS DRIER THAN ANYOTHER PERIOD FOR TEXAS SINCE THE LATE 1800S...EXCEPT THE 1950SDROUGHT. THREE-YEAR DEFICITS EXCEED 30 INCHES IN MANY AREAS ACROSSNORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...EQUIVALENT TO MISSING NEARLY A YEAR OFPRECIPITATION.DESPITE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT...THERE WAS SOME SHORT TERMIMPROVEMENT DURING SEPTEMBER. RAINFALL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THEMONTH REMOVED NEARLY ALL OF THE EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) ACROSS NORTHAND CENTRAL TEXAS ALTHOUGH A SMALL ENCLAVE REMAINS IN LAMAR COUNTY.MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) AND SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) COVER MUCH OF THEREMAINDER OF THE REGION. IN SOME OF THE AREAS WHERE SEPTEMBERRAINFALL WAS THE MOST ABUNDANT...ONLY ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONSREMAIN. IN JUST TWO WEEKS (SEPTEMBER 17 TO OCTOBER 1)... PORTIONS OFFREESTONE...LIMESTONE...AND NAVARRO COUNTIES IMPROVED FROM EXTREMEDROUGHT (D3) TO ABNORMALLY DRY (D0).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=DGTFWD

 

 

[Srain]

Update from Jeff (Harris County Flood Control District) regarding the Flood event unfolding across Central and SE Texas:

Slow moving boundary producing tremendous rainfall west of I-45 to I-35.

 

The combination of a short wave moving out of MX and a slow moving outflow boundary has resulted in an excessive rainfall event overnight and continuing into this morning from west of Houston to Austin/San Antonio. Rainfall amounts have averaged 1-3 inches across much of the western portions of SE TX and central TX. A CoCoRaHS observer south of Austin recorded 11.33 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours.

 

Currently very heavy rainfall extends from near Sealy west along I-10 to north of San Antonio. Since 400am rainfall amounts of 5.0-6.5 inches have fallen over Waller and Austin Counties resulting in flash flooding. Storms continue to fire along the very slow moving outflow boundary in a very moist air mass with PWs over 2.0 inches. Low level inflow off the Gulf is perpendicular to the boundary leading to good lift and continued maintaining of the heavy rainfall. Over the past few hours, the radar trends have been for gradual weakening and lower rainfall rates, but surface heating over the next few hours could help generate stronger slow moving storms along the leading edge of the boundary. Extremely slow storm motions of less than 5mph and high hourly rainfall rates will result in the potential for some quick excessive rainfall totals.

 

Meso models have not done a good job forecasting the current activity and are likely not handling to forecast today well. It is hard to determine where or if additional storms will develop on this boundary, but one would expect with heating that storms will develop in the un-tapped air mass south of I-10.

 

Should see the heavy rainfall axis shift WNW Monday into Tuesday as Gulf high pressure briefly builds into the area. This will focus the heavy rainfall across WC into N TX.

 

A cold front will move southward slowly across the state Tuesday night-Wednesday at the same time moisture from TD-15E off the Mexican coast is pulled NE along the frontal slope. Expect another round of very heavy slow moving rainfall with this boundary by the middle of the week. This setup will need to be watched as it appears to be a common mid October excessive rainfall pattern.

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/13/13 1501Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1445Z RUMINSKI
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...EVOLUTION OF HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE OVER TX SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE OVER SRN HLF BEING REINFORCED WITH SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE
GULF. MID/UPR LEVELS ALSO BEING MOISTENED BY SWRLY FLOW WHICH IS TAPPING
MOISTURE FROM TS OCTAVE. SUTROPICAL JET CUTTING ACRS NRN TX IS LEAVING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX IN FAVORABLE RRQ FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
.
CLOUD TOP TEMPS HAVE WARMED MARKEDLY WITH MAIN MCS FROM OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST ACTIVE CNVTN CURRENTLY ON PERIPHERY IN BROAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON
THE SRN AND WRN EDGES OF COMPLEX. SRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW..ALG ROUGHLY
A KPSX TO KCOT AXIS..IS RUNNING INTO SSE FLOW FOR ENHANCED SFC MOISTURE
CONV. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL REMAIN AN ACTIVE AREA FOR ADL HEAVY RAINFALL
THRU THE MRNG AS GOES DERIVED LI'S AND PW'S CONT TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
POOLED OVER TH AREA (PW AOA 2" AND SFC TD'S IN M70S) WITH LI'S ARND
-5. OF MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS CNVTN OVER ZAVALA AND VCNTY WHERE CNVTN
HAS BEEN INCRG (RAPIDLY COOLING CLD TOP TEMPS) AND BACK EDGE OVER KINNEY
HAS BEEN NRLY STNRY. SLOW MVMNT AND OUTFLOW INTERACTION COULD QUICKLY
LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4" IN 1-2 HRS.
.
CNVTN OVER CONCHO AND TOM GREEN AND VCNTY IS ON WRN PERIPHERY OF OUTFLOW
FROM OVERNIGHT MCS AND SEEMS TO BE ALIGNING WITH MID/UPR FLOW. MOISTURE
NOT QUITE AS DEEP HERE (SFC TD'S IN M60S AND PW'S ARND 1.75") BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT
FROM RRQ JET PLACEMENT AS NOTED ABV.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-1900Z...MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ALG E/W AXIS FROM NR KDLF TO
KBYY WITH GREATEST CONCERN NR THE E AND W EDGE. 2.0" TO 2.5"/HR RAINFALL
RATES PSBL. NOT AS CONFIDENT IN CNVTN FURTHER N INVOF TOM GREEN DUE TO
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM. RAINFALL RATES THIS AREA EXPECTED
TO BE LESS BUT STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1.0" TO 1.5"/HR.
 

[DoctorMu]

We've had 5.3 in of rain in the CLL backyard...5 inches of which in a wicked severe storm that began about 3 am.  Penny-sized hail, lots of lightning, winds up to 60 mph, and torrential rain. There were spotty power outages, downed trees, and significant flooding in low-lying areas.  

 

Stuff got tossed around and part of the back fence is down.  Off to get some 4 x 4 posts.

 

[DoctorMu]

One bad mama meso

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1037 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.UPDATE...
MCS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THIS MORNING PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING FED BY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
STRIPPED FROM TS OCTAVE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. PORTIONS
OF AUSTIN COUNTY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF SEVEN INCHES
OF RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERAL ROADS IN THE AREA
HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

GIVEN THE IMPACTS FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER FLOODING TO THE SOUTH AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES...HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
BY A DEGREE OR TWO. OF INTEREST IS THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM RUN WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED THUS
FAR TODAY. IT HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS PUSHING SOUTHWARD TO THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EAST OF HOUSTON AND
MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE METRO AREA THIS EVENING. 38

 

 

 

 

[Srain]

Worrisome to see cooling cloud tops expanding across the Edwards Plateau and generally heading E. Additional flooding issues for Central and SE Texas as the day wears on.

 

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/13/13 1634Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1615Z RUMINSKI
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...NEW MEXICO...
.
ATTN WFOS...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...INCREASING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CNVTN HAS BN GRDLY INCRG OVER DISC AREA
DRG THE MRNG. AREA LIES ALG AXIS OF 100+KT SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CNVTN OCRG
ALG AND JUST S OF JET CORE. LATEST GOES DERIVED MOISTURE AND STABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW MARKED INCR IN MOISTURE AND DCR IN STABILITY. SFC OBS
AND MODEL DATA CONFIRM WITH LARGE MOISTURE/THETA-E FLUX AND STG VEERING
OF 8H WINDS AS PER VWP . CNVTN IS ELEVATED WITH SFC FNTL BOUNDARY STILL
WELL TO THE S AND KMAF...KAMA RAOBS SHOWING STG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS.
.
WITH ADL CNVTN DEVELOPING FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER EDDY COUNTY NM AND
FILLING IN OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND BORDEN COUNTY AND
VCNTY THIS IS ADDING TO POTENTIAL FOR MERGING CELLS AND REPEAT CNVTN
TO BOOST RAINFALL TOTS. AS AFTN WEARS ON AREA WILL INCRGLY COME UNDER
INFLUENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE S AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-2000Z...MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF CNVTN TO CONT TO FILL IN
DRG THE PD WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WITH CNVTV CLUSTER NOW INVOF
KGNC. WITH TPW VALUES RUNNING ARND 1.2" EXPECT MAX RAINFALL RATES OF
ARND 1.5" TO 2"/HR AND 3 HR TOTS OF NR 3" PSBL.

 

.