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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico and likely develop into a tropical cyclone late this week or this weekend.

 

Focus for the next several days will be on the current tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea and its potential for development and impacts along the TX coast. Current satellite images show a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea in association with what appears to be the southern end of the tropical wave that spawned TS Gabrielle last week. This wave is moving toward the WNW and should progress into the Yucatan before being able to develop.

 

Global forecast models suggest this wave will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico late this week in the Thursday-Friday time period and all show development of surface low pressure. The Bay of Campeche has been a favored area for development this year and tropical systems in this region under favorable upper level conditions have a tendency to spin up quickly. While most of the global models want to track the system into MX much like several other tropical storms have done this year in the southern Gulf, there are some trends that suggest a westward track is not a 100% done deal.

 

Upper level steering high pressure currently anchored over the central plains will be drifting southward over the next few days and by late this week be located over TX into the SE US. This pattern would block any potential northward turn of a Bay of Campeche tropical system and send the system on a W to WNW into MX. However over the weekend into early next week, this high begins to break down and shift into the SE US under the approach of a W US trough. This trough erodes the western edge of the ridge protection over TX and does open a path for a tropical system to turn NW or NNW toward the NW Gulf coast. At the moment this is the least likely of the two options…but it is a possibility and while it was only supported by a few model ensemble members yesterday, the 06Z GFS run is concerning for coastal TX…with a system tracking NNW toward the CRP area.

 

Upper air conditions look overly favorable for development and there appears to be a good shot at this system becoming a hurricane depending on how long it remains over the water.

The National Hurricane Center indicates a 60% chance…a high chance….of development of a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days and a 10% chance over the next 48 hours.

 

Impacts:

A long fetch ESE to E will be building seas across the Gulf over the next several days. This fetch will result in the formation of long period swells and tidal pile-up along the TX coast. This process is already underway with current coastal tidal sites averaging .5 to 1.0 ft above normal predicted levels. Using the ET-surge modeling with wind grids from the GFS model shows a developing coastal storm surge of around .5 of a foot toward the end of the week and total coastal water levels rising to around 1.0-2.5 ft. These levels would not cause any significant coastal flooding issues, but large swells will be breaking well up the beach and possibly at the base of dunes resulting in some potential for beach erosion and strong rip currents.

Tides and seas would require additional increases if any southern Gulf tropical cyclone moved further northward or the pressure gradient increased between the tropical system and high pressure to our NE.

 

Stay tuned!

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

40% chance in 48 hrs; 70% in 5 days

 

Not giving up yet...

 

atl1.gif

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OFTHE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHETOMORROW. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOWS SIGNSOF ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IF THE LOW MOVES OVER THEBAY OF CAMPECHE FAR ENOUGH FROM LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUMCHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TOMOVE VERY SLOWLY...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO FORTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

dumb-and-dumber-dumb-and-dumber-6242465-

 

 


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
LOWER ON FRIDAY FOR INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FEATURE HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF INCREASING DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.
12Z MODEL RUNS WERE A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL TAKING IT INTO THE
MEXICAN COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE UNITED STATES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
LIES IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE STATE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR REGION. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SYSTEM INLAND MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST AND THUS IS DRIER FOR OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A RATHER WET
SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE POPS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND WILL WAIT FOR MODELS TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE WELL DEFINED AND SAMPLED.

THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM ON OUR REGION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 38
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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Probably this will end the drought IMBY. One year's worth of precipitation in a few days. Even the water oak would have excessive water.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_apcpn_watl_50.png

 

Do you have a water oak?   The mapp on Wiki, extreme SE Texas is the edge of its range, and the tree guy doesn't know why the builder gave us a water oak.   I didn't know, I thought it was a live oak.  It grew so fast, and it kept most of its leaves even through the bitter Houston Winters.

 

 

I'm not giving up.  Tree specialist says it hopeless, but since he says not to plant until Spring, I'm going to hope against hope.  One green leaf left, I'm watering.

 

Half to an inch total from Ingrid up here looking more and more likely (13 to 25 mm Canadian)

 

FIM-9 looks also ugly for mountainous regions of Northeast Mexico.

post-138-0-56182500-1379101350_thumb.png

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Euro, and even GFS, suggests more action could develop in the Bay of Campeche, but absolutely no sign of anything that would help the drought.

 

 

But the sea breeze is showing some life.  Not a drought buster, but if we'd had another 10 or 20 days of 30% type seabreeze this Summer, the drought would have been a lot less bad.  My water oak would still be lush and beautiful.

 

 

HGX_loop.gif

 

 

 

Manuel/Ingrid outflows are maybe helping a tiny bit.  High level moisture in NW flow, and pretty good low level moisture in surface flow around Ingrid well to the South. 
wv-animated.gif

LCH.gif

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

Manny and Ingrid could prime the pump ahead of the next front later this week.

 

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING
WHILE INGRID HAS NOW DISSIPATED INTO A REMNANT LOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE IS LESS THAN
THE PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INLAND NEAR MATAGORDA BAY AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TRYING TO
FORM NEAR GALVESTON BAY. TODAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL PUSH INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS KEEP THIS SYSTEM AS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ANY MOVEMENT
TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE HAMPERED BY AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF INGRID AND MANUEL
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AND INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE WATERS ON
SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE COAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 90S. 38

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

Hoping 95L, Ingrid/Manny remnants and the cold front will indeed form the perfect storm Friday...

 

...ending watering season....as we head into Lawn Brown Patch Season.  The hybrid  :axe:  red oak in the front is losing leaves over the bottom half - at least it's alive.

 

 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
BUT COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. TODAY SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY AND THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS GIVEN IT A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECASTS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO EDGE UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF INGRID CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. OUR GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND SERVES AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING IN ITS
WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BEFORE INCREASING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 38


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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

The latest HGX discussion has 95L, ghost of Ingrid, front, and a new trough feature serving up a tasty stew Friday into Saturday am

 

Even the GFS 84 hr precip totals look promising.

 

 


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SCT SEABREEZE/BAYBREEZE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID EVENING W/
LOSS OF HEATING. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL START HEADING BACK
INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THURS. EXPECT TO SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE THEN SPREAD INLAND THRU THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. (WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A FEW
WATERSPOUT AND TROPICAL FUNNEL REPORTS THAT TYPICALLY COME AS
THESE TYPE AIRMASSES ARRIVE).

COMPLEX WX SCENARIO SETS UP FRI & SAT. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO
THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION OR STORM
THEN PROBABLY TREK SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND
BROWNSVILLE BY FRI. WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ELEVATED
TIDES/SEAS HERE...BUT PRIMARY ISSUE IS THAT IT`LL SEND SOME DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND ALONG THE UPPER COAST. PW`S FCST TO INCREASE
TO 2.2-2.5" BY FRI AFTN - WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.

TWO SEPARATE FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL THEN TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE A GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP FRI THRU EARLY AFTN SAT. THE
FIRST BEING A COASTAL TROF EARLY FRI...THEN A FRONT FRI NIGHT/SAT.

THE COASTAL TROF & CONVERGENT ZONE SETTING UP RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GENERATE SOME PRECIP NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO EXPAND FURTHER
INLAND DURING THE DAY.

BY FRI NIGHT...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
THE 2ND FOCUS FOR CONTINUED PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND INTO SAT.
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN IT`LL CLEAR THE COAST AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF
IS FAIRLY LOW AS MODELS AREN`T IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING
TIMING. THINK THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHRA BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS WELL. BEST GUESS NOW IS PRECIP ENDS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG HOURS SAT. RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME...BUT ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL CONSIDERING THE DEEP MOISTURE...FOCUSING BOUNDARIES...SLIGHT
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. NOTE THAT THE
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ARE S OF HWY 59 WHERE THE COASTAL TROF WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS THAT INLAND PARTS DON`T INITIALLY HAVE. BUT THAT
DOESN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTH LATE FRI & FRI NIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT IS INTRODUCED.
 
f84.gif
 
 
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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/19/13 2202Z
 SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 2132Z VOGT
 BLENDED TPW THROUGH 1936Z
 .
 LOCATION...TEXAS...
 .
 ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
 ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
 .
 EVENT... ONGOING MOD TO HVY RAIN
 .
 SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THERE HAS BEEN
 WIDESPREAD COOL CLOUD TOPS ACROSS WRN TX ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL. AT 1730Z,
 MANUEL WAS CENTERED AT 25.1N/107.4W WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-TO-UL
 FLOW STREAMING ACROSS TX. THIS UL FLOW PATTERN IS HELPING USHER HIGH
 AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO TX. MOISTURE IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED
 IN FROM THE SE (FROM THE WRN GULF) ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO CONVERGE OVER
 TX. BLENDED TPW PRODUCT THROUGH 1936Z INDICATES PW VALUES OF 1.8-2.2"
 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE. THOUGH, THE
 MOST ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IS LOCATED INVOF TERRELL COUNTY AND PTS TO THE
 NNE WHERE PW VALUES ARE 200% ABOVE NORMAL.
 .
 SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2205-0305Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
 IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SINCE MANUEL IS NOT MOVING MUCH DUE TO THE NEARLY
 STATIONARY UL TROF TO ITS WEST, EXPECT MOD TO AT TIMES HVY RAINFALL
 TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE DISCUSSION AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
 AS HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SIT OVER TX. SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS
 AIDING IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS OF LATE BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT
 RAIN RATES TO RANGE FROM 0.5-1.5"/HR WITH 1.5-2.5" TOTALS OVER 3-HRS
 PER RECENT MESONET OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

 

201309192202loop-ir.gif

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

The ingredients for a Heavy Rainfall Event continue to come together across the Lone Star State today into. Saturday. The WPC as outlined portions of West Central Texas with a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with a Slight Risk for portions of Central/SE/E Texas today extending into most of SE Texas/SW Louisiana on Saturday. The GFS/Euro are a bit quicker to dry us out during the afternoon on Saturday while the NAM/SREF/HRRR short term meso guidance are slower with the frontal boundary and extend the heavy rainfall threat into Sunday. Flash Flood Watches have been hoisted along and N of the I-35 Corridor for Central Texas and Flash Flood Watches may be required further SE into SE//E Texas later this morning and into Louisiana as well. Training storms with 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates are possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning as a slow moving frontal boundary sags S and a Coastal Low develops along the Lower Texas Coast and moves NE. The remnants of Manuel in the mid levels combined with deep tropical moisture streaming inland from the Gulf will provide a good lifting mechanism as well as good dynamics from the sagging slow moving trough appear to be the ingredients needed to produce 3-5 inches of rain with some isolated 6-7 inch amounts and possibly higher across portions of S Central/Central/SE/E Texas and SW Louisiana. Those with Friday evening travel plans need to monitor weather conditions closely in this complex and comlicated Heavy Rainfall potential.

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