Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/31/13 1507Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1445Z  JS
.
LOCATION...W MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA/SE ARKANSAS/SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FROM PORTIONS OF SE TX TO SE AR/W MS.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HAVE RECENTLY COORDINATED WITH WPC
REGARDING THEIR MOST RECENT MPD SO WILL TRY NOT TO BE REPETITIVE. IR
SATELLITE SIGNATURE SHOWS CLASSIC WEDGE SHAPED AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS WITH PERSISTENT UPWIND REGENERATION OCCURRING OVER SE TX. WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS ACTIVITY LOCATED WITHIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW ARE HELPING TO SLOW DOWN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHAT. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE NOW
APPEARS TO BE NEARING THE RIO GRANDE NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF SW TX
WITH THE INFLECTION POINT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE DEPICTED IN
SOME OF THE GOES SOUNDER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRODUCTS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, HAVE SEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE APPROXIMATE
AREA FROM GONZALES COUNTY TX TO NEAR HOUSTON TX. THIS INCREASE IN UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY A SERIOUS CONCERN GIVEN THE CONSOLIDATING AND
SLOW MOVING DOWNSTEAM QLCS AFFECTING FAR SE TX TO NE LA.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-1800Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS PER RECENT WPC MPD, EXPECT A RATHER HIGH HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM SE TX TO AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NE LA AS UPSTREAM REGENERATION AND MERGING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS/BANDS
AND A PERIOD OF SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TRAINING OCCURS. RAINFALL RATES
OF 2-3"/HR WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY AND RAIN TOTALS OF 2-4" IN 3
HOURS ARE LIKELY IN THE THREAT AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, EXPECT
THE THREAT AREA TO GRADUALLY SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE PER TRENDS SEEN
IN GOES SOUNDER/BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WHICH SHOW MOISTURE PLUME BEING
SQUEEZED BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO,
DENOTED BY POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR, HOLDING FIRM. THE GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM COASTAL SE TX(AT LEAST AS FAR SW AS THE CENT
TX COASTAL REGION) TO NEAR THE NE LA-W MS BORDER. THE QLCS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
THOUGH THE SOUTHERN END STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR THE EFFECTS OF
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT.
.
 

[DoctorMu]

Gotta recheck the rain gauge, but about 2.5 in in CLL over the last day, bringing us close to 11.5 in!! for October...the most for the month of Oct since the 1994 deluge where we had 18.5 in in a 48 hour period.

 

 

It's feast or famine in the precip dept in CLL.  The brown patch is now feasting on the lawn.

[Quixotic1]

Gotta recheck the rain gauge, but about 2.5 in in CLL over the last day, bringing us close to 11.5 in!! for October...the most for the month of Oct since the 1994 deluge where we had 18.5 in in a 48 hour period.

 

 

It's feast or famine in the precip dept in CLL.  The brown patch is now feasting on the lawn.

 

Congrats.  If we got more than 0.10 on the lawn, I'd eat a sprinkler head.  Pretty disappointing since 2" seemed like a lock. 

[Portastorm]

As a result of the heavy rainfall event last night/this morning, Austin established a new record for monthly precipitation in October with 13.27 inches.  The old record was from 1925 of 12.63 inches.

[Srain]

Afternoon update from Jeff L (HCFCD):

Next large scale storm system to affect TX currently dropping down the US west coast.

Another strong upper level storm system will impact the state early to middle part of this week. Southeast low level flow is already returning low level Gulf moisture to the coastal bend and the western sections of SE TX this afternoon while a stream of mid and high level moisture spills NE from TS Sonia off the west coast of MX south of Baja. Sonia will make landfall along the western Mexican coast over the next 48 hours with her moisture being brought NE across TX ahead of the main upper level storm. At the moment it looks like the main moisture from Sonia will pull across the state prior to the arrival of the main dynamics associated with the upper level storm system.

Moisture return and increasing disturbances in the noisy SW flow aloft will help promote a chance of scattered showers on Monday. High resolution models, most notably the TX TECH model, continues to show a “stream” of showers off the western Gulf inland over the Matagorda Bay region for a decent period of time from late tonight through Monday. Other short term guidance also shows these “streamer” lines off the Gulf, but not as pronounced nor in the same location for an extended time like the TTU model. With Gulf moisture increasing, can not rule out a shower for most areas on Monday into Tuesday. By later on Tuesday, lift from the main storm system will begin to approach the region and expect an increase in shower/thunderstorm development.

Main dynamics and front cross the area on Wednesday and this is when the greatest potential for heavy will be. Models show moisture values pushing 1.8-2.0 inches of PW which is again near maximum levels for this time of year, but not as high as the Halloween Day event. This storm system is a little more progressive and looks like the potential for cell training is less and focused more toward N TX and OK where maximum QPF (rainfall amounts) are currently being forecasted. With that said, another widespread 1-2.5 inches does look possible with this event and with grounds saturated and rivers peaking early in the week, even this amount of rainfall could result in significant run-off and additional watershed responses. Still plenty of time to watch and refine rainfall forecasted amounts and locations, but at the moment this event does not look as high on the rainfall totals as the Halloween storm system.

Hydro:

Flood waves currently passing through are river basins from the rainfall last week.

Colorado: River crested below flood stage at Columbus and will crest below flood stage at Wharton and Bay City

San Bernard: above flood stage at East Bernard and Boling and forecast to rise near Flood Stage at Sweeny by the middle of the week

Navasota: River crested just below major flood levels this weekend and should fall below flood stage by the middle of the week

Brazos: River will begin a secondary rise at Hempstead, Richmond, and Rosharon. All points are forecasted to crested below flood stage, although Rosharon will be very close to flood stage

Note: additional rainfall this week both over our region and north/west of SE TX could impact current river forecast crest levels and recessions.

[Srain]

The WPC issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall on  Wednesday for portions of Central/SE/E/NE Texas and Central Arkansas.

 

 

 

 

[1900hurricane]

This morning's DRT sounding had 1.5" of PW, but it is somewhat deceptive considering it is still pretty cool and dry below 850 mb. Going to need a stronger return flow to take advantage of the saturated mid-level troposphere.

[DoctorMu]

about 0.5 in out of the latest event.  However, over a 2 mo period beginning on Sept 7, we've had 19.09 in in the backyard.  It's been one wild & crazy year.  Good reservoir filling stuff.

 

Mostly boring for awhile.  Patchy frost possible next Wed night.

[Srain]

Our latest fall chill will transition to a chance of light showers over the weekend as a couple of short waves pass overhead in the zonal flow aloft. The Euro and GFS are in better agreement that a strong front will pass on Tuesday, but most of the energy associated with it will be off to our east. While it does appear there is a chance we may see our first frost/freeze for our Northern areas, it isn't all that early as we typically get that first frost or freeze in those areas near the middle of November. What may become a bigger weather maker could be lurking the following weekend (November 15-17) as a much stronger front and attending storm complex may develop offering a severe weather chance or even heavy rainfall. That remains to be seen as it is way too out to know with any certainty just how the pattern will develop.

[DoctorMu]

Yep - expecting a cool rest of Nov.  The amplified model we talked about early with expanding ice pack should make for an interesting winter.

[Srain]

Two more days of pleasant weather before the bottom falls out temp wise across our Region on Tuesday. The much anticipated Arctic Cold Front is diving S from Canada this morning and will arrive early Tuesday across Oklahoma/N Texas and be off the Texas Coast by Tuesday afternoon. You will need a coat on Tuesday as temps fall rapidly into the 40's and settle into the 30''s by Tuesday evening with strong and blustery N winds that will actually have a wind chill in the upper 20's to low 30's Tuesday night. Frost and Freeze warnings are likely along and N of the I-10 Corridor and may extended into Wednesday night as well.

A very progressive pattern will develop as a Coastal Low/trough takes shape next weekend bringing a rain and elevated storm chance before another reinforcing shot of cold Canadian air plunges S next Sunday into Monday (a week from tomorrow).

The long range outlook is suggesting a cross Polar flow straight from Siberia may well become established as a deep full latitude trough remains anchored across Western and Central North America with disturbance riding S in the N to NW flow and continued chances for Eastern Pacific moisture and Coastal Low/Trough development along the Texas Coast before yet another Arctic Cold Front arrives.

[Ed Lizard]

Unless it snows, cold weather is just dreary and unpleasant and kills plants.

[1900hurricane]

Unless it snows, cold weather is just dreary and unpleasant and kills plants.

 

This. It also makes every small bump/scrape/minor injury hurt way more than it should. Cold sucks.

[Ed Lizard]

HGX forecasting 35F at IAH Thursday.  How depressing.

[Ed Lizard]

31F at CXO and UTS

 

 

How depressing.

[DoctorMu]

30°F in Hearne and 31°F in Conroe last night

 

In CLL, summer drought and alkaline water already kill anything other than boxwoods, brush, crepe myrtle things, and a few trees.  If it's going to get cold, snow and insect killing freezes are my preference.  

 

 

The suns out - feels pretty good out there as we move up to 50°F.  Tender plants are covered and the orange tabby has come indoors - light freeze on tap before a warming trend. 

[Ed Lizard]

The water oak, after the late August/early September massacre, once I found out it was not a live oak, and needed 30 gallons per day in the Summer, and watered it daily, has perhaps 20% of its green leaves left.

 

 

The water oak will lose a third to a half of its leaves November through March anyway, the bitter Texas Winter clearly stresses it, so while I have reduced watering with the cooler water, I have it a good soaking last night to try to minimize stress any way I could.

 

 

Tree expert doesn't know why the builder gave us a water oak, and I figured any oak looking tree that stayed half foliated through the Winter was a live oak.  Who knew?

 

 

Models looking drier than I'd like.

[DoctorMu]

The branching is much different on a water oak than a live oak although the leaves are similar to some live oaks (not the waxy oval leaf kind), with dark bark. A water oak in CLL will generally lose almost all of its leaves in Nov. We planted a water oak and 2 red oaks at our old house and they were doing magnificently when we sold the home.   The new owner unfortunately didn't provide the TLC and the red oaks succumbed to the drought the last couple of years.  The water oak managed to survive.

 

Between the drought at gray clay soil at the new home, we're only batting 0.500 with red oaks.  We planted a drought resistant Monterrey Oak this April... and naturally nearly 8 in of rain in May zapped it...now the burial ground is a rose garden.

 

Found an old picture.  One of the red oaks is in the center/right...the water oak behind and to the right.  A dying post oak on the left (probably a victim of the sprinkler system).

 

 

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm.... is the Euro sniffing something out? 

[Quixotic1]

Hmmm.... is the Euro sniffing something out? 

I certainly hope so.  I can't remember such a stretch of boring weather.  We had the outbreak back in April and that's pretty much been it since the snow back in January.  

 

They made mention of it in the FWD AFD but sounded dubious due to lack of cold.  

[Quixotic1]

February 2003 anybody?

[DFWWeather]

Pattern seems to be looking quite similar. Also, thought about the November 25, 1993 event, in which this may also be similar. It is also the 20th anniversary this year of the ice bowl at Texas Stadium, which apparently this event is almost lining up with on the exact same date.

[DFWWeather]

The GFS and NAM painting a pretty icy picture for a large part of North Texas including DFW on Sunday. NWS considering issuing a Winter Storm Watch tomorrow for good part of the area. Appears they want to wait another model run or two. Freezing Rain Advisories already posted for counties adjacent to Tarrant and points west.

[NJ_Ken]

The GFS and NAM painting a pretty icy picture for a large part of North Texas including DFW on Sunday. NWS considering issuing a Winter Storm Watch tomorrow for good part of the area. Appears they want to wait another model run or two. Freezing Rain Advisories already posted for counties adjacent to Tarrant and points west.

 

That freezing rain advisory for Gaineville, et. al. is for later tonight.  The front is roaring south now.  It went through here (Oklahoma City) a bit after noon.  We were at 68 F with dewpoints in the 60s.  Now, four hours later, we are at 40 F with a dewpoint of 36. 

 

I am a newbie to the southern plains so I am not so familiar with the vagaries of local weather, but it sure looks like this is all setting Dallas up for a VERY interesting start to Thanksgiving week.   

[DFWWeather]

That freezing rain advisory for Gaineville, et. al. is for later tonight.  The front is roaring south now.  It went through here (Oklahoma City) a bit after noon.  We were at 68 F with dewpoints in the 60s.  Now, four hours later, we are at 40 F with a dewpoint of 36. 

 

I am a newbie to the southern plains so I am not so familiar with the vagaries of local weather, but it sure looks like this is all setting Dallas up for a VERY interesting start to Thanksgiving week.   

 

Welcome to the Southern Plains! I've lived here over 30 years so not so unfamiliar with whacky setups like this. I've have literally seen it 89°F in Dallas the day before accumulating ice/snow. I've also seen the temperature drop 40°F in one hour after passage of very strong Arctic front.

 

It certainly does look interesting, and as noted above almost 20 years to the date since November 25, 1993 (our last and only ice event on Thanksgiving Day).

[NJ_Ken]

Welcome to the Southern Plains! I've lived here over 30 years so not so unfamiliar with whacky setups like this. I've have literally seen it 89°F in Dallas the day before accumulating ice/snow. I've also seen the temperature drop 40°F in one hour after passage of very strong Arctic front.

 

It certainly does look interesting, and as noted above almost 20 years to the date since November 25, 1993 (our last and only ice event on Thanksgiving Day).

 

Lifelong Jersey boy here (until this past June) and lifelong Philadelphia Eagles fan, too (sorry).... and I clearly remember watching Leon Lett unnecessarily diving through the sleet after that blocked field goal on Thanksgiving 1993.  In any case, hopefully, I moved here in time for some interesting winter weather down your way and up here.  :-)  

[Quixotic1]

Lifelong Jersey boy here (until this past June) and lifelong Philadelphia Eagles fan, too (sorry).... and I clearly remember watching Leon Lett unnecessarily diving through the sleet after that blocked field goal on Thanksgiving 1993. In any case, hopefully, I moved here in time for some interesting winter weather down your way and up here. :-)

i always think of Lett when i think of that day.

Welcome to the Southern Plains. Probably a little tame winter weather wise but the Spring will make up for it.

This front is overperforming in terms of speed. If i remember correctly, the 2003 event I referenced earlier also caught everybody off guard. Shallow cold air masses give models and mets fits around here.

[DoctorMu]

i always think of Lett when i think of that day.

Welcome to the Southern Plains. Probably a little tame winter weather wise but the Spring will make up for it.

This front is overperforming in terms of speed. If i remember correctly, the 2003 event I referenced earlier also caught everybody off guard. Shallow cold air masses give models and mets fits around here.

 

I was thinking the same thing.  Granbury will see icy stuff, but a frozen mix/ice in Waco, Temple sneaking towards Hearne is not out of the question this weekend.

[Quixotic1]

I was thinking the same thing. Granbury will see icy stuff, but a frozen mix/ice in Waco, Temple sneaking towards Hearne is not out of the question this weekend.

The despoints will tell the tale. If they are waiting for 00z runs to make a call for Sunday then anything is possible.

[DoctorMu]

The despoints will tell the tale. If they are waiting for 00z runs to make a call for Sunday then anything is possible.

 

Yeah. The 32°F DP line is around Jacksboro...it should move SE - we'll see how far in the next day